Member Info for faramog

@MadasaHat .. not sure on past form the Q2 RNS will have any real impact ... we know the market are lazy and dont do any adding up .... they will wait until sept for the H1 details which do the working out for them .

Very happy to be wrong, but not expecting much except a small upward pressure on Q2 data

Nothing really new on Bushveld .... interesting comment on the RedT deal ... "While redT may be able to supply the flow batteries we wonder where they are going to source the vanadium electrolyte and if the cost will be economic for larger scale instillation in today’s market?"

ha ha ... good read from bonkers ... carrying a 300M MCAP against a nothing balance sheet ..... well very true if you use the last audited accounts ... but forgot entirely the position since January ...but as these clowns never do .. look at the rns's and do some adding up

well over the 80% line now .. get to 30p before 27th Aug and its a shoe in

... then some trackers etch will start to want a piece ... nice blue week we can only hope

yes .. let the girls have a feel then shake the tree ... rinse & repeat

where does 286p come from

the spreadsheet is read only until you click the 'edit in browser' button...

I can see by the 'filter filter filter ... the trolls are out.

stop responding ... they are oxygen thieves

ninjamagic .... yes ... just update.. or add to the obvious field and I will

@vauch - no ... Approx 42% ... with around half confirmed over the last year ....

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=7CA08D1AD119BB44!349&ithint=file%2cxlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!ACwzApTR8TVzc8Q

@onefcc ... ha ha .. yes ... it is really mad .... and relatively the picture has not changed given next years gross profit .... fill yer boots peepz

@onefcc .. Bonkers on calcs .. why .. don't you agree ? or are you being like 'its a mad mad world' bonkers ? (and not being confrontational here - its a discussion) just used the numbers Nick, Alfa, Pdub (et al) have posted over the past few months along with numbers from the rns's ... where its an average gross profit of $51 or $45 or $70 per kg the overall numbers still say a re-rate to 100p+ still undervalues the company and its assets very significantly

As I said... stress test changes very little - its a pretty linear relationship now significant volumes are there

Good points about the elections. I had forgotten they are just round the corner ....

because YTSS, it will prevent/limit inward SA investment as there will be a perceived risk of expropriation ... so the values will all be reduced or held back to cover the risk premium.

Ramaphosa is no fool (unlike Zuma) and knows very well what a full blown policy like this would do. His wording was measured and I though emphasised that the voluntary buy back had not worked anywhere near well enough .. could end up being the stick to shake the tree ... start playing ball or we will just take it kind of thing ... he has marxist factions to deal with and is far from establishing an unassailable position as president.

So far, he looks to be the first President since Mandela that may be worthy of the job ... we can just watch and hope

@somtan67 ... well ... have to be sustainably making 1-2B in net profit and a believable store to keep it going for a market re-rate of 1500-2000 methinks ... a long way to go yet

@Ophidian - I tend to agree. a bidding war is what I see as the USA realises it has no real supply of its own, can't get any out of russia or china and strategically must pretty much pay any price to guarantee supply. Sovereign wealth funds from the middle east also very probable (but don't discount the Norwegian one that has a long track record).... either way .. a very juicy 500p may well be enough to entice LTH's to part with their chits.

.... just lets get to 30p first eh !!

A fair point ... Rampers just ra-ra all the time with no/ little or cherry picked facts. De-rampers do the negative sides of the same selective points. I don't count myself in either camp... I can just add up !

Using my own assumptions (and others have different views) ... this year I calculate an average gross profit of $51.7/kg (next year $79.2) giving a Bushveld gross share of around $127M ($423m next year) ...almost 95M quid (316M next year).

So, the gross profit this year before royalty, tax, admin this year will be larger than our MCAP a year ago ... and the prediction for next year will be larger than the current MCAP ... absolutely mad !!

Re-rate to a realistic MCAP is only just starting, so when I look and see 3.5-4x SP as near certain, you only have to look at the numbers. Our valuation bears no relation to the cash or profit being generated (as it has yet to be formally recognised in the market) and very little real relation to the NAV of the mine and ore source.

Oh .. and this is just Vametco and some Mokopane mine assumption - bring in BE, Electrolyte, Lemur, Brits, Afritin etc and who knows .. another zero on the SP ....now that is silly ramping :-)

I have played around with the numbers and really very little makes a great deal of difference except the actual amount mined and sold. Sort of obvious really but a relatively linear relationship between profitability and output

It is unnerving to see such upside with so little risk.... but ... of course the ANC land grab proposals could shake everything up a bit

a good point targus12345 ... risk appetite is certainly a question.... a year ago I felt 30p was very blue skies and had trouble seeing the how in anything other than a very long time-frame. We had 25% and very little control over the cash... since 59% acquisition and very clear hints of 70% shortly (or more) along with the significant supply deficit and near constant vanadium price rises that same blue skies feeling is more like 300p.. I see 200 as an obtainable sp in less than 24 months and 100 as near a certainty as it gets....and all of this is just on Vametco operations and expansion ... bring in Brits, Mokopane, BE, Lemur, Afritin etc .. and who know

So whereas I had planned to start selling off around the 20p mark and drawing down as the upside dropped off (towards my perceived threshold of 35-40) giving me a decent early retirement, now I do wonder whether I will sell any before 100 and still have a significant % of my holding beyond 200

I don't I am alone in this view among the LTH's who have a few million shares and even those with modest holdings in 100's of thousands will have like changing returns

From a liquidity perspective this is not ideal for a trading market, but given the strong possibilities of decent sized dividends the income potential is very large.

So just ignore the trolls and mischief makers - the fundamental numbers speak for themselves... even basic primary school maths shows the reality

just stop responding peepz .... if no one responds the flies find some other s**t to buzz around

I likr the name Corbyn cup.... reminds us of the latevisionary who showed a handful the way... and then they spread the word .... as for futures cups... a 100p target sounds good and I fancy an end of year closest 'guess' ..... but lets get 30p first..... I think sanchez is the most likely now

yes FB .... maybe you should buy a few more shares with it ... lol... ... and knuttie... been on that trip... 8 years on and still going .... keep faith...

Bushveld - Guess the 30p day
The Corbine Cup

Rules
---------
1. one entry per person
2. no changes after close date (say sunday 7th Jan 18 - TBC)
3. threshold is met when the LSE site shows a close (mid point) of 30.0p or higher for the first time
4. Winner is the entry closest to the date
5. Winner gets to choose a charity and set up a just giving page and do the admin (your prize)
6. If more than one winner, then collectively they decide on a charity and admin
7. Its a bit of fun to raise a few quid. Nominal amount everyone is assumed to give as a min is 10 pounds ... you can of course donate more
8. For added fun, add a 2nd pledge if your the winner (up to each individual)

Name Date Pledge If win

lionelgreen 31 Jan 18 £10 £100
gambitxjs 25 Feb 18 £10
smishman 27 Feb 18 £10
spbhoy 27 Feb 18 £10
MassiveRay 28 Feb 18 £10
Bushy_69 02 Mar 18 £10 £200
billygoatgruuff 07 Apr 18 £10 £50
Coffecups 15 Apr 18 £10
bmnfan 16 Apr 18 £10 £150
richemondo 17 Apr 18 £10
abbynparit 19 Apr 18 £10 £500
faramog 09 May 18 £100 £200
asda2101 18 May 18 £10 £100
Brasi 21 May 18 £150 £150
numpty5 24 May 18 £100 £200
kevkan 25 May 18 £10 £75
jay12 08 Jun 18 £10
reteps 22 Jun 18 £10
knutsfordnotary 23 Jun 18 £100
knuttie 04 Jul 18 £10 £250
gassyoll 12 Jul 18 £10
mitchoftheday 13 Jul 18 £300 £300
mcgrow 19 Jul 18 £10 £200
specula8or 21 Jul 18 £10 £100
alastairMcGrift 23 Jul 18 £10
dimmented 30 Jul 18 £10 £100
clarky860 03 Aug 18 £10
dfallows 14 Aug 18 £50 £100
jogj99 14 Aug 18 £10 £250
sanchez599 17 Aug 18 £10 £150
0308966 30 Aug 18 £10 £100
maccas21 04 Sep 18 £10 £150
wessy 07 Sep 18 £10
gigmillbaggie 10 Sep 18 £10 £500
deece 13 Sep 18 £10 £150
milkman87 19 Sep 18 £10 £100
tyfoon 03 Oct 18 £10 £100
bonscott 05 Oct 18 £300 £300
bigbytenow 09 Oct 18 £200 £200
redleader147 13 Oct 18 £10 £147
messdog 15 Oct 18 £10 £50
dagnamit 25 Oct 18 £10 £100
ludeck 30 Oct 18 £250 £250
sickoftheratrace13 Nov 18 £10
diamondlover 15 Nov 18 £10
cozza99 21 Nov 18 £10 £100
kevgrimmley 27 Nov 18 £10 £100
gubsey 30 Nov 18 £250 £250
jmc69 06 Dec 18 £10
a12dy 31 Dec 18 £10 £100
fatbanker 31 Dec 18 £10 £3,112
goblesmythe 01 Jan 19 £10 £100
killerpidgeon 01 Jan 19 £10 £100
uksteveg 01 Jan 19 £10 £150