RE: What’s was Driving the AngloGold Ashanti Stock’s Surge?28 Apr 2025 11:38
Part 2
Higher gold prices, coupled with operational and efficiency improvements, were mainly instrumental in driving year-over-year gains in earnings and free cash flow in 2024 despite inflated costs. The free cash flow rose to $942 million in 2024 from $109 million in 2023. Earnings were $2.21 per share for 2024 against a loss of 11 cents for 2023.
Gold production for 2025 is projected at 2.9-3.225 million ounces. This suggests year-over-year growth of 9-21%. For 2026, the company expects similar output levels as in 2025.
AngloGold Ashanti Sees Downward Estimate Revision Activity
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AU’s 2025 sales is at $7.27 billion, suggesting 25.5% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for the year’s earnings is at $2.49, indicating year-over-year growth of 12.7%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales for 2026 suggests 10.4% year-over-year growth. The same for earnings indicates growth of 7.4%.
However, EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending south over the past 60 days, as seen in the chart below. This reflects declining confidence among analysts in AU’s earnings growth capabilities. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
AU’s Lofty Valuation
AngloGold Ashanti is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 17.34X, a premium to the industry average of 16.88X. It is also higher than its five-year median. With a Value Score of D, the stock may not present a compelling value proposition at these levels.
Meanwhile, Kinross Gold, Newmont and Barrick Gold are cheaper plays, which are trading below the industry at 15.91X, 14.18X and 12.41X, respectively.
AngloGold Ashanti’s Average Target Price Suggests Downside
The average price target on AU suggests a 12.4% decline from its last closing price of $43.14. The highest target of $42 also implies a dip of 2.6%.
AU & Gold Field Joint Venture Faces Setback
As of Dec. 31, 2024, AngloGold Ashanti had a diverse portfolio, including 11 operating assets in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ghana, Guinea and Tanzania. These operating assets were supported by greenfields projects in Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire and the United States, and a focused global exploration program, including exploration in the United States.
The company’s proposed joint venture (announced in May 2023) with Gold Fields to combine their Tarkwa and Iduapriem gold mines remains on hold as they have not yet obtained the requisite approvals from the Ghana government. This is expected to create the largest gold mine in Africa, with an extended life, higher production and lower costs.
Final Take on AngloGold Ashanti Stock: Buy, Hold or Sell?
While AU is poised to benefit from the current surge in gold prices and higher production expectations, increased costs are headwinds. AngloGold Ashanti’s stalled ambitions to build Africa’s largest gold mine continue to weigh on inv