Isn't what we know already in the price?21 Mar 2025 17:10
Markets don't lie and share prices go up when there are more buyers than sellers and vice versa! I think everything we know already is already in the share price. We are awaiting agog for positive news, but hold on a minute, let's get realistic about what may be coming. Suppose for example, KZG wins (has won?) the arbiration case over Aftan but Hebei-Xinjian says "So What!" and doesn't pay. We then have to go through the proces of legally recovering the operation; allocating resources to it, staffing it etc. And Hebei might seek for example a fair value payment for work carried out during their pewriod of stewardship, or else remove all their equipment and retrench the workforce. Then there is the question of working capital for WHM; for the lack Aftan payments one would expect more working capital to be needed to keep WHM onsteam. And we haven't started talking about Perdevlei yet! Management has been careful so far in not issuing equity like water but who is to say their hand may not be forced. The market is full of mining companies who seemed to be going well, but getting into production was so costly that the original shareholders benefitted little. I am as interested as any of you in this coming out well, but I am not holding my breath and I am not going all in yet. Sure, after the next RMS there is likely to be a sharp movement in the share price but IMO it is not 100% certain that it will be up!