Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Wizard
Are you living in ibug’s ‘real world’ too?
There is no ‘site’ at Arreton which you mention. And UKOG’s licences are administered under the Petroleum Production Act which doesn’t cover geothermal activity. Yes, there is jurisdiction to allow exclusive rights to geothermal work, but it’s unrelated to petroleum operations.
Besides - the previous two dry holes at Arreton didn’t report temperatures suitable for geothermal abstraction.
And what about Licence rentals? The IoW Licence is well into its second term with rentals heading for £200 per sqkm. That’s >100,000 per annum. Why retain a licence with no plan to explore it? Answers on a (very small) postcard please.
ibug
It may be sunny at Basur, but snow is 2 metres thick and nearby ski resorts are very busy. Any seismic equipment still on the ground will be frozen in until May. Drilling? - next year.
https://www.kayserierciyes.com.tr/SkiResort/LiveBroadcast?stream=3085
FD
Shell has Volaris 122 jack up on contract and just extended the contract. Could be that this rig will arrive to drill the Pensacola exploration well sometime in June.
https://s23.q4cdn.com/956522167/files/doc_downloads/fleet-status-report/2022/02.21.2022-Fleet-Status-Report_FINAL.pdf
The rig, on a contract with Shell until May 2022, will drill one High Pressure / High Temperature well, with the total duration of drilling and completion activities expected to take around 145 days.
Shell is the operator of the Jaws exploration well in P2380, with Cairn Energy - soon to be renamed to Capricorn Energy - owning a 50% stake in the project as a partner.
All warships from all states are banned in both directions under Montreux Convention. Russia will be pleased since no other navies can enter Black Sea
Gray Panther
Raithlin don’t say much and don’t receive abuse via bulletin boards or who is doing the day-to-day work. But they do have a multi-disciplinary squad of first rate consultants to pay for. Going rate today for this type of work is at least £1000/day on time-written basis.
Raithlin do a pretty good job in terms of community liaison as reported by written records of the West Newton Community Liaison Committee.
https://www.share-talk.com/west-newton-community-liaison-committee-rathlin-energy-uk-limited/#gs.pk6vmj
The driving force for the project is a very experienced Canadian oilman called Tom Selkirk who tells local residents precisely what is going on. You will see from link above that Raithlin is not impressed how their partners report progress. Compare Tom's explanation about recent testing with that of the 'spinning' applied to reports by the Terrible Twins.
Tom Selkirk’s website link below.
https://www.selkirkgeo.com
Oilriches
You might be right - for once we have an AIM stock with market price driven by sentiment but also underwritten by solid technicals and managed by only modestly overpaid executives.
Circumstances have conspired to make another exploration well on the Pensacola prospect the first ever drilled by Deltic since the company won its first UKCS licences 8 years ago. I say ‘another well’ because there are dry holes on P2252 already. And the much-vaunted Zechstein Ossian/Darach discovery in block 43/4 remains un-appraised.
But let’s face it - Deltic’s team are following the golden rule of exploration i.e. never spend your investors’ money on exploration drilling. The outcome is that all we can do as investors is to sit back and wait for our wealthy new partners to call the shots.
Phoebus
Between Deltic’s block 43/11&42/15 block there are several discoveries/prospects called Andromeda, Pegasus and Cygnus. All named after galaxies - but they’re only a few km away.
Skwizz
It’s not so much the number of people on earth, but rather how humans have been so successful as a species.
In 1998, aircraft designer Paul MacCready gave a series of talks which looked at a planet on which humans have utterly dominated nature, and talks about what we all can do to preserve nature's balance. His contribution: solar planes, superefficient gliders and the electric car.
https://www.ted.com/talks/paul_maccready_nature_vs_humans?language=en
Considering these ideas date back ~25 years, his talk is just as relevant today - even to the extent that humans will begin to act like gods and modify the atmosphere!
Skwizz
Reading between the lines it’s likely the reason for ‘pausing’ the new seismic is that the seismic equipment is buried under 4 feet of snow and ice and the whole operation has been suspended until it melts - early March probably. But by then, the well location will be defined - so why bother acquiring the remaining seismic?
Has the seismic crew been seen recently?
4 feet of snow and below zero in Siirt
CB - it’s not a noddy question at all, partly because the heavenly twins haven’t included critical information.
Although the numbers quoted by S & S are based on physical measurements, one has to remember they need qualification. For example, the RNS states these are estimated IP (initial production) figures.
But IP for 5 minutes, 5 hours, 5 days or 5 weeks?
What decline rates are forecast? Are fractures involved in the estimates? Is the ‘oil’ simply retrograde condensate? - and numerous other questions.
What’s the recovery per well and how many wells will be needed to maximise economic recovery?
It’s not S & S fault that they’re a couple of bankers pretending to be oilmen, but using figures out of context really doesn’t help RBD’s investors.
On the other hand Raithlin are quite open about technical performance at their community liaison meetings. The lead person is Tom Selkirk, a highly experienced oilman, who speaks with authority and answers questions clearly. Raithlin’s technical strategy for WN is to appraise the project step-by-step using a formidable team of operational and subsurface experts working as an integrated team with their planning specialists. Example in link below;
http://www.frackfreeeastyorkshire.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2019-10-29-Rathlin-Community-Liaison-Committee-Meeting-WN.pdf
Uggy100, Harryshang
From the recent posts it seems investors are unimpressed by the experience and capability of the RBD and Raithlin team to explain themselves over the WN disaster. The recent decision to call in expertise in carbonate reservoir specialists is to be welcomed, although the suggestion that there may be a ‘reservoir stimulation treatment to achieve optimum flow rates’ illustrates how little our leaders understand. The reality is that the damage to the reservoir has already been done at the existing wells and the failure to apply proven technology which has been in use in Netherlands, Germany and Poland for more than 30 years has cost us dearly.
The Heavenly Twins need to start with a clean sheet, import expertise from proven gas fields and appoint credible technical/operational management to back up their next fund raise and explain the use of funds at WN.
Typical Zechstein gas fields in the NE Netherlands consist of numerous poorly connected fault blocks and the reservoir matrix is a very tight carbonate - equivalent to the Kirkham Abbey Formation. Production history shows varying individual well rates and where good productivity occurs, it is due to the presence of natural fracture networks. These Zechstein reservoirs have been produced for many years mainly as secondary targets by perforating existing (vertical) wells when production from the underlying Carboniferous sandstone reservoirs had ceased. So nothing new - but how do NAM do it?
Other development options are generally uneconomic - unless the appropriate technology increases the chance of successfully accessing the remaining volumes.
NAM, and others, has reported on technologies, which help to predict, intersect and complete on fracture networks, are:
1) Deterministic geo-mechanical (i.e. scientific - as opposed to guesswork) fracture prediction models ultimately calibrated with reservoir performance to help to optimise well placement and forecast production.
2) Use of Coiled Tubing Under Balanced Drilling (CTUBD) technology to drill horizontal well trajectories eliminating massive mud losses (which historically prevented drilling past the first fracture encountered), maximizing the chance to intersect a fracture network, and minimising formation damage. CTUBD involves continuous drilling without stopping to connect new pipe strings, and allowing the well to flow gas to surface, via a special sample catcher & blow out preventer, to a flare.
3) ‘Barefoot’ completions to ensure connectivity between the well bore and intersected fractures. A barefoot completion has no casing or liner set across the reservoir formation, allowing the produced fluids to flow directly into the well bore.
Of course, there is a cost to all this, but I doubt anything will happen soon - or until a competent operator is appointed.
Good point Mirasol.
The point I was trying to make is the ‘scare stories’ in main stream media about Putin having a valve he can twiddle in the Kremlin to affect gas prices in UK are only partly true because, as you say, they generate fear about shortages among gas traders whereas the physical supply of gas is actually in surplus.
All countries with a integrated gas transmission systems have a Uniform Network Code with incentives for shippers (buyers & sellers) to balance their trades. To put it another way, what goes in must be the same as what comes out. When there is too much gas or not enough gas National Grid balances the network, but at a cost - allocated to various shippers - who pass it on to the consumers who burn the gas. When things get seriously out of kilter, like they are at the moment we find gas (and power) prices following suit.
https://www.nationalgrid.com/sites/default/files/documents/End%20to%20End%20Balancing%20Guide.pdf
XYZ
Liked your post on prices.
Looking at oil and gas price parity, gas rarely trades at higher price than oil.
Say NBP gas price is ~ 200p pence/therm at its recent peak for spot and month ahead
10 therms is 1000 cubic feet. Equivalent to £20/mcf or ~ $26/mcf.
Now;
1 bbl oil = 6 mcf gas - so equivalent oil price is; 6 x £26 = £156 per bbl or $202 per boe which is what you’ve posted.
In heat terms, gas is now selling at > twice the price of oil, not including distribution etc.
So what is going on? Well, its roots are ‘panic buying’ by gas traders. National Grid’s prevailing view is that there is plenty of gas coming to UK, and always has been - mainly due to global warming and there is no shortage. In fact UK’s gas annual consumption has been falling steadily for a decade.
But tricks of the mind have turned gas into gold, rather like the so-called ‘petrol shortage that wasn’t’ a couple of months ago.
It is compounded by UK’s network code, to which all traders must sign up, which says a wholesale gas buyer must always have a destination for the gas. This keeps the whole system ‘in balance’ - hence ‘NBP’. So if a trader ‘panic buys’ too much gas, he has to sell it for more to remain afloat. If he can’t take the gas, there is a daily ‘cash out’ which means he has to pay for it anyway if its not sold.
Who pays? Consumers - as usual. Government? - haven’t got a clue.
When truth comes out it will be a huge scandal and encourage nationalization of National Grid.
FD - the main difference is that Algy Cluff works to enrich shareholders, whereas Shareholders in Deltic work to enrich their Board.
Snow has fallen in Eastern Anatolia in areas above 2000ft altitude. Skirt is 3000ft. Temperatures have dropped below -10 centigrade at night. Let’s hope AME are not paying for weather downtime. The whole area is usually snowbound for the next couple of months.
https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/storm-snowfall-batter-turkeys-east-and-west/news
Looking forward to updates on progress and seasonal landscape photos from SS.
Loxley?
These ‘teenage scribblers reports’ on gas froth up the market for their own reasons - mainly to attract business and influence the market.
But the reality is that gas demand in UK shows overall decline over last decade - primarily due to global warming and improved efficiency. The supply margin for this coming winter has actually increased. Sure, day ahead prices might surge, but overall the market is in a steady state.
National Grid’s outlook says;
1 Supply continues to be available from a diverse number of sources. The gas supply margin is expected to be sufficient in all of our supply and demand scenarios.
2 The maximum supply capability across all supply sources into UK is comparable to last winter.
3 As in previous winters, a positive market price differential to both Global and European markets will be required for a number of sources of flexible supply to direct flow into UK.
4 National Grid have a range of tools available to manage any operational requirements throughout the winter period. This may include issuing margin notices to encourage market participants to take action should there be a forecast supply/demand imbalance for the coming gas day.
Ocelot - here's National Grid's 21/22 gas forecast - they don't mention Loxley
https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/gas-transmission/document/137156/download
Ocelot
Photo on UKOG homepage looks like 6 or 7 mean trying to drill a shot-hole using a portable auger drill. The man on the left is pulling the recoil starter to get the motor running and they’re using compressed air to circulate cuttings. The air is supplied by the compressor in the background. Presumably they are trying to conduct an up-hole survey for static corrections in this undulating terrain. The whole set-up looks like an accident waiting to happen, especially if the auger jams in the hole and the power head starts spinning in the opposite direction instead.