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IP3âŚâŚ. Unfortunately I think youâre probably right in believing the government could change their position on a BT sale theyâre not capable of doing what they said theyâd do!
IP3âŚ.Itâs anyoneâs guess but there are other factors I.e. Improving Pension deficit, faster than planned FTTP roll out meaning capital spend will reduce sooner,tax breaks on capital spend, many operating cost savings , competitors in the market in trouble due to over optimistic business plans, independent values put on Openreach and EE that are more than twice todays market cap without allowing for other BT businesses . In addition Drahi and the Germans underwater on their investments and not renowned for being serial losers.
revenue may not fly in the near future but thereâs every chance that profits and FCF will increase significantly in the next three years.
BT is supposed to be a national asset so much so that the government has intimated that they wouldnât allow a foreign takeover so we can assume that as well as restrictions that implies a degree of protection from outside negative influences.UK market valuations are a fraction of those in the USA and that could change very quickly if government changes and UK companies became in vogue again for international investors.
I think your estimates allow for all the winds against progress but largely ignore the potential for gains.
We will seeâŚâŚ.. my bet is well over ÂŁ2 by the end of 2024.
Revenue is circa 4billionâŚ..an even better buy!
Iâd just point out that my comment wasnât a criticism of Fleccyâs posts at all.
It was certainly a criticism of the superficial stuff that comes out of various analysts and âprofessionals â.
Watched it, nothing new I didnât think.
Given that markets supposedly are forward looking I donât really understand why analysts guesses on current quarter results are given such credence .
SP will probably go down because will BT announce something that isnât identical to someone elseâs guess.
Whilst writing this I see Fleccyâs comment on the video.
With the greatest of respect for Fleccyâs undoubted knowledge of BT it does puzzle me that a retired engineer / amateur investor comes up with a more reasoned and objective assessment of the share than an investment professional.
Crozier appointed in 2021 on ÂŁ700k p.a. with a plan to increase shareholder value.
Thatâs going well isnât it?
Hi Simon,
Just checked your posting history and find youâve been negative on this share for the past two years.
Just out of curiosity why do you have anything to do with it?
Ironic Indeed ??,
Itâs been mentioned many times on this site that highly leveraged new entrants were always going to be at a disadvantage to BT as their market knowledge was less and BT was not in hock to lenders as they are.
They rely on BT being hobbled by OFCOM in the name of fair competition but their business model has built in disadvantages that they wonât make public.
I mentioned earlier that ZZoomm has achieved a 7% penetration on their installed base. Iâd wager that the business plan they used to get backers on board promised three or four times that.
The only thing that will stop BT becoming a market leading cash cow in the medium term with valuations double today is over regulation and government interference.
Our so called business friendly government likes to interfere in markets so itâs fifty fifty whether will succeed but barring that they must be a sure bet.
Itâs probably all BTâs faultâŚâŚ.retribution coming from OFCOM shortly.
Telegraph today reports ZZoom laying of fifty percent of workforce and new customer take up of only 7% of total properties passed.
Bodes well for BT.
Add in some good news on the 18th and for a change I think we may see a jump on the 18th.
Iâll be optimistic and go for 178.8
That sounds like an area where OFCOM could use its government connections to get a small bill through parliament double quick and add some value to the roll out.
Yes thatâs a balanced view of the situation. The price is almost back at what it was before the OFCOM letter âŚâŚâŚ.interesting to see if another negative article appears in the coming week to keep the price down.
Aus, the only thing Iâd say on your âBT is exposedâ point is that BT is funding its roll out from existing revenue streams. The altnets are all leveraged to the hilt. This should allow BT to treat the investment as one that can be recovered over a much longer term than any altnet can afford when they have their lenders desperate for a quick return.
I think the key words are âunexpected reluctance to take fibreâ . At the heart of this debate the issue isnât whether PJ ,OFCOM or the altnets say one thing or another.
Iâd say the fusses over statements by various parties are just symptoms of a big underlying issue that was always likely to cause problems .
There was an assumption that âbuild it and they will come â would apply to new providers and competition would come just because they existed.
In my area households can choose from at least three different suppliers each of which had a penetration assumed in their business plan that was based on hope despite the fact that broadband is viewed by most households as just another utility. People locally arenât taking the latest fibre offers if they have Okay service and the price isnât crazy.I live in a lane with four houses that needed 90 yards of channel dug then four spurs to houses at lord knows what cost eighteen months ago.Not a single house plans to switch.
I think that the fact that the billions being sunk into new networks by altnets are based on fundamentally incorrect expectations and that OFCOM have bought into and supported those expectations is the underlying issue.Itâs a bit like the Kings new clothes story though and itâs easier to take chunks out of each other than accept that the regulator and the new investors just got their modelling wrong.. I agree that 4g may be a factor but suspect that only applies in the more tech friendly younger generations. I suspect that most altnets penetration assumptions are out by a factor of two if our local experience is anything to go by.
BT isnât to blame for this but is a convenient villain for OFCOM and the altnets to blame for their unwise plans not being achieved.
I wonder how long it will take to sort out? Unfortunately If OFCOM is to own sorting it out more problems are coming.
At what point does your market share prevent you making bullish comments about your willingness to compete? Last time I looked BT had mid 30 s percent and Virgin had mid 20s.
Talk is cheap , if everything this and other CEOs said came true I dare say weâd all be better off.
I did the same and have just received a response that acknowledges that OFCOM is by no means perfect. I hope that if the rumoured departure of the CEO is true and is put down to frustration with continual OFCOM interference we may see a change in their behaviour. Time will tell.
Excellent balance article ,thanks for posting. Lots of mainstream journalists should take a lead on how to report on this topic in an even handed way.
Thanks wetherboy, not a great difference between Schulerâs comments on altnet consolidation and deep questions about altnetâs sustainability and Jansensâs statement about things ending in tears.
Looks like OFCOM has selective hearing when CEOs make comments about the market.
Fleccy, itâs in yesterdayâs Telegraph just search âVirgin media in talksâ most of it is posted below.
Letter off to MP too.