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Ian,Quick?? Check out the price history of the share.
I was just to make a similar response Pete.
I’ve been invested six or seven years which for me is long term and as you say I’m in a loss position.
I’m only staying because I cannot believe the nation’s leading telco is only worth a p/e of 6 ( even in todays markets with telcos out of fashion DT is on 12 France telecom is 9)Sooner or later the markets view of the sector will change I hope. Until it does any difference in p/e between BT and other large telcos must be at least in part do to lack of confidence in the leadership team.
In the meantime any differences between BT and othe
Hi Pete,
I’d like to think the UK government and the EU won’t perpetually act like 4 year olds if there’s benefit to be had for the people they ‘serve’.
If past performance is anything to go by that may be a forlorn hope!
I wasn't suggesting the government would gain by a sale of BT in the scenario I laid out rather that their consent could be traded for something more important.
Who knows? it's all conjecture but I'd really like to see something/anything happen that would make BT Board look like they really care what their company share price is that doesn't depend on all their bets coming good over a few years.
Indeed they have made their plans very clear, what they cannot do is project how the markets will value the company whilst they execute the plan.
The plan has been clear for some time as you say but the Share price has almost halved since PJ took over.
BT wont have a say when a take over approach happens and protesting they've got a plan will not help them if they cannot convince the markets that they are rock solid for trebling the existing share price over a couple of years. They've failed to get markets onside so far so why would an untried and un tested CEO with no big job run away successes under her belt make the markets believe her when PJ couldn't?
I'd love to have the faith that you have but in common with just about investment institution that looks at BT I'm afraid their record so far doesn't inspire confidence.
I remember that Fleccy but don't have your innate belief that decisions by governments are always totally logical and rational.
If Rishi wants something from the EU and negotiations are in play then promising not to obstruct a takeover could win him something that he cares more about.
None of really knows..............lets check again 1st January 2024...............we should know by then.
Of the options you describe I see only one likelihood and that’s DT who may already have agreement in place whereby Drahi supports their bid. That would explain why Drahi has bought 25% of a share that the market don’t care for and publicly says he’s a believer in the strategy despite being underwater on his investment. I can’t see how his lenders would have the patience to wait until the fibre roll out is completed to see a reward unless they know their investment is safe because of the DT link. If the Portuguese fraud blows up and his BT investment remains unchanged that would be pretty convincing proof that something is up. If as someone commented earlier there’s a fire sale because Drahi is implicated in some way that’s my theory up in smoke. When the government is trying to get closer to the EU I don’t see that they wouldn’t go along with DT as long as they had safeguards in place for the long term on sensitive security issues.
Who knows , but unless there is a grand plan somewhere I can only believe Crozier and the Board have just consigned BT to Five years of mediocre share price performance with this appointment and surely that’s a death wish as the major investors patience surely won’t last and both Chairman and CEO will be out before 2025 dawns.
Being a BT shareholder is the modern day equivalent of wearing a hair shirt as continuous penance.
When you think things can’t get much worse instead of looking for a CEO with market recognition as a driver of value they appoint someone associated with no obvious big successes.
A quick look around the web shows articles saying she’s occupied this that and the other jobs but haven’t yet seen any significant accomplishments.
The only possible positive could be that she won’t rock the boat whilst a takeover takes place.
Pete,last paragraph very true. Is it a big game or has it just happened. Whilst it feels like things are being manipulated somehow surely FSA or someone else would be aware and blow the whistle on it if big players were truly rigging the market for a FTSE 100 company.
Most recent reports dated February 23 showed Altice debts in excess of 50 billion dollars…… he definitely has convinced his bankers so far.However With that sort of number at risk he may be pushed in action on BT soon whether he’s ready or not.
He must have a plan he is sharing with his creditors as they seem to be happy funding his BT adventure. I’ve read that he is up to his neck in debt or underwater on his investments in his other companies so in a time of higher lending rates he must have sold a very convincing plan to multiple investors, private equity or hedge funds very likely, who aren’t known for their understanding when their cash is at risk.
Hi Fleccy,
We do of course make our own investment decisions. I have been in here since the Italian accounting shambles which I thought brought about an exaggerated response on the price and represented a buying opportunity.
little did I know how wrong I could be!
Instinctively for many reasons including those you outline I see long term value still and for that reason I’ve averaged down but today I’m still 33% underwater but not going to sell come what may.
It is true that others are also beset by the same issues and Fund Manager Nick Train apparently made similar comment last week.
I don’t know if the others have as many options to raise short term value as BT does . This board has discussed many of them ….from selling masts to whole divisions and many things in between. At the extreme if everything not core to the future fibre net work went there would be a much smaller company with huge margins and ROCE in a few years time and the roll out would be amply funded and dividends doubled.
I’m not suggesting that but don’t understand why the board doesn’t do something to throw a scrap to benighted shareholders other than say “ Build and they will come “ ( apologies to Kevin Costner and Field of Dreams) just trust us.
OOPS…….Don’t understand how that posted again me or LSE?
Apologies either way
I think both Fleccy and BluePete make valid points but for me the question remains.
If Crozier and the CEO have a prime directive to increase shareholder value which I think they do who decides timescales?
If the markets see the long term benefits and value BT based on futures then they are meeting their prime directive and everyone is happy.
Or
If the markets don’t believe the plan and place minimal value on the company then Chairman and CEO are failing to meet their prime directive certainly in the short term.
As things stand they are failing unless someone can point to a free pass they’ve been given by shareholders to deliver Jam tomorrow.
I think both Fleccy and BluePete make valid points but for me the question remains.
If Crozier and the CEO have a prime directive to increase shareholder value which I think they do who decides timescales?
If the markets see the long term benefits and value BT based on futures then they are meeting their prime directive and everyone is happy.
Or
If the markets don’t believe the plan and place minimal value on the company then Chairman and CEO are failing to meet their prime directive certainly in the short term.
As things stand they are failing unless someone can point to a free pass they’ve been given by shareholders to deliver Jam tomorrow.
Always unlikely until they happen.
The thing is Fleccy it’s not important that it’s rubbish factually if it’s only there to suggest there’s nothing wrong with a foreign takeover.
Understand your argument about UK assets but successive governments haven’t treated it like one so what incentive is there for the board not to put shareholders first and get some value back into the company. Being a UK asset should be beneficial not a huge weight to carry that just stops the company being successful.
If it hadn’t been under the interference it’s received it may well have been a roaring success and be further along with broadband and actually making more money and keeping the alt nets at a distance rather than helping them out.
BT doesn’t owe OFCOM or the government a thing.
Spectator article, Perhaps a plant to start a more accepting dialogue on the prospect of a foreign takeover of BT?
Let’s hope so.
One thing is sure, if there is a bid it will be for as little as the bidder thinks they can get away with. It’s ironic that if a bid is to be based on the current price plus a magic number then the very organisations that have been playing trading games with the stock for years will be offered a price that under values their investment…..hoist by their own petard! if it didn’t also hurt me it would be funny.
I think that DT would need to lead rather than Drahi as the “don’t sell the UK Crown Jewels “brigade who have stood by and watched BT being ground down by OFCOM and the city would have a field day if a known debt junkie led the bid.
As the UK is trying to rebuild relations with the EU it would be more difficult to forbid the sale when the bidder is a leading company from the leading EU economy.
I think a price between £2.50 and £3.50 would be likely with DT and Drahi coming to some quiet agreement for Drahi to share the extra benefit he has gained by accumulating his stake at a much lower price than DT.
I suspect this is another false dawn but I hope not.
If nothing else it may encourage those that interfere with BT to back off and let the new CEO maximise the opportunity that Jansen has set up.
Not in Europe? what does that mean? BT Have offices and at least a couple of thousand staff in Europe.
Or he’s leaving because he doesn’t have confidence that his own strategy is going to pay off and make his options worth staying for.
This isn’t going to add to the market’s confidence in BT.