Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Sorry if my post caused you alarm Faramog. I just thought it was interesting discussion point. I didn't mean to say that BEwas fairly priced, just that there was early evidence of the BE effect if you look at the ratio to Largo. To me that's a positive: if there were no evidence whatsoever that we were priced more than a miner it would suggest I'm crazy to believe in this; but if there were already really strong evidence - well then we would already have a correctly priced share rather than the bargain that I believe it to be. That's all good, no?? But also if you have other theories about why BMN : LGO is so affected by V price it would be cool to hear - it's a really noticeable effect - was really interested to know what others thought.
Hey Gambit, have you also plotted the LGO : BMN ratio on top of V price data? I found that really interesting to look at. When V drops the ratio always swings in BMN's favour. A positive way of looking at that is to say that the market is (to a very small extent) pricing in the potential of Bushveld Energy as a hedge against V prices. So maybe some 'wisdom of the crowd' going on, just not to the extent that many on here believe the market should/could value BE.
Hi Faramog, that is indeed Patrick O’Shaughnessy's site you've found but for some reason the podcasts page doesn't seem to list the latest podcast. I don't know if this board will let me post the full link... here it goes:
http://investorfieldguide.com/jeremy-grantham-an-uncertain-crisis-invest-like-the-best-ep-177/
But you can also find it if you search for it and click on the iTunes / Google / Spotify links (or whatever your favourite podcast platform is).
Cheers, Ev.
If listening to macro-economic arguments is your way to relax on a Wednesday evening(!)...I thought those BMN investors who enjoy taking a longer view of things might appreciate the podcast episode "Jeremy Grantham – An Uncertain Crisis – [Invest Like the Best, EP.177]" from Patrick O’Shaughnessy's podcast. (Use favourite search engine to find it). If you're impatient to hear what he says about rare earth metals then skip to 39:20, but really I think the whole thing is a remarkable analysis of the COVID-19 situation from someone who has analysed global markets over a career of many decades, and well worth listening to from the beginning. Have fun. Ev.
Sammy personally I don't think it's any mystery why people sell at this level - either they think they will get a more rapid rise elsewhere, or just bearish about this asset class in general (where 'asset class' might mean all equities, or all small caps, or the mining sector, or even Vanadium specifically). More of a mystery is why they should feel that way in this case when investors don't typically feel that way elsewhere...the fundamentals / ratios with other Vanadium companies / sector averages don't seem consistent with the market's opinion of BMN.
Splenidid, thanks for speedy and helpful responses. Will be doing some number crunching so text data in tabular form is the most useful - the shipment logs are great as I can copy-paste straight into a spreadsheet. Is it easy to get at the spreadsheet used for TBP / vanadium-prices section? I can see that there's a Google spreadsheet generating the graph but I can only see the graph not the spreadsheet. No stress if this is tricky tho - the shipment log is a great start and you've all been super-helpful already.
- Evidently now with some evidence.
Hi BMN board. Doing some more tedious but necessary analysis on this sunny Saturday in the UK. Can anyone tell me if there are publicly available data sets on historic vanadium prices (for the V commodities sold by BMN would be ideal but really any would be helpful)? I'm aware of vanadiumprice dot com and asianmetals but couldn't see any easy way to grab a file of historic data from them. Monthly data would be great, weekly or daily even better. All help much appreciated.
- Evdently looking for evidence.
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Also since I'm posting here I must take this moment to echo the thoughts and well wishes to pdub - our family has also been touched by that cruel disease. pdub we haven't had the change to interact very much but I can see how much you have contributed to this board, and to understanding of BMN in general. I hope you feel the warmth and love of those nearest you.
liamvtr it sounds like you may be a new investor - Vicmy is talking about the buys and sells to the competing market maker companies that make up the stock exchange. If you plan to trade relatively frequently (or even if you don't) it's worth understanding how they work - suggest you have a quick search. You'll see a lot of nonsense on bulletin boards about market makers as if each price they set is the result of a devious human decision, but in reality they just run computers that guarantee liquidity whilst maximising their return on a very short-term basis, using statistical algorithms.
Pat48 are you secretly BBC Environment Analyst, Roger Harrabin? :-)
Your views are exactly the ones expressed in the BBC UK news article "Coronavirus: UK warned to avoid climate change crisis" and attributed to UK goverment advisors and the UK Committee on Climate Change.
"The UK must avoid lurching from the coronavirus crisis into a deeper climate crisis, the government’s advisers have warned.
They recommend that ministers ensure funds earmarked for a post-Covid-19 economic recovery go to firms that will reduce carbon emissions."
pb940 haha yes maybe LSE should try it. But I also don't think we have to worry too much. Thoughtful people will pay attention to the bits that appear thoughtful, and will invest in companies that enhance their long-term wealth whilst improving the world around them. Thoughtless people will each visit only briefly and have little impact on anything. I do think it will also help to get more institutional investors (real ones, not like the shell companies that invest in junior oil stocks), as they will give a more authoritative perspective on value. And as the board have said that getting institutional money is something they're working on hopefully it will happen relatively soon, especially at the current (in my opinion) attractive price. Have a good evening :-) Ev.
pb940 yes fair points. At least you can take heart in knowing that the people who behave in the way that you describe don't affect the share price very much, because they don't have much money. And the reason they don't have much money is because they behave in the way that you describe :-D
Drifter88 thanks for the reply. Yes I think most on here would agree that a significant uplift should be added to BMN's valuation based on the vertically integrated supply chain into VRFB. I think the market struggles to add that in because the market can't agree on how to calculate it (I mean in a calculated scientific way, more than simply sentiment). So investors revert to PE ratios or mine life or whatever, not because it's right but because alternative calculations are non-obvious. It does seem that the BOD or even just the broker could provide assistance in that regard. Alternatively if the BOD is working to attract more institutional investors then we may find that those institutions write their own narratives about those things which might help a lot in coming months.
pb940 wrote: "A lot of what you hear...boils down to the following: " ... "invested here but want a reasoned discussion which will affect my investment - fair enough but your shooting yourself in your own foot."
I respect this view but personally I don't get it. If someone really thinks a reasoned discussion on a bulletin board will affect their investment negatively then firstly I think they grossly overestimate the effect of bulletin boards(!), and secondly it suggests they don't really believe it to be undervalued. Anyone who genuinely believes this to be undervalued should be very welcoming of rational discussion. Evidence suggests the market needs help to make a reasoned valuation of BMN and I don't see how having a good chat about that can hurt - it ought to do some good.
Cheers, Ev.
Drifter88 I'd just like to say how much I appreciate you talking about actual ways to think about value. I think that is potentially a great use of this board and would be really pleased if discussions can be more of that nature. Personally, I really don't think this board has any significant influence over the valuation, but I do think it can be a great resource for those who read it, if we engage in informed rational discussion.
On the technicalities of what you wrote, are you of the opinion that (even without considering growth potential) we should generally add 8.71% of the market cap of Invinity Energy? Sure it only increases BMN valuation by 2% right now but perhaps worth considering if we look again in a few months.
Cheers, Ev.
This opens as a debate about value, although funily enough it looks like we actually haven't discussed value very much. Part of that depends on your forecasts for the energy storage market, but even using just the baseline (lazy) analysis of saying that this is a mining company it looks to be undervalued at present, does it not? (If you look at current FeV price, make some provision for COVID downtime, and then do the simplistic thing of comparing PE ratio with other miners). I agree that this disparity may have much to do with the levels of comms at present - let's hope that's about to change.