RE: Happy Christmas24 Dec 2020 19:23
hyperlink and the untruths subsequently told about it is yet to be bottomed. A drains-up investigation has been suggested to the FCA about this matter. So the question, and the answer, come from a period before concealment had (so far as we know) begun.
2. John Stafford's reply reveals that the Ryder Scott Shaikan Fracture Report had already been underway for eight months and GKP already had "lots and lots of information" about the fracture system and its characteristics. This fits what GKP said in May 2012 when they reportedly face the "proved" Shaikan Fracture Porosity to the broker analysts in Bell Pottinger's offices.
Even if that particular piece of evidence is out to one side, it is an indisputable fact that in the May 2012 Investor Presentation GKP said that the volume of oil in the Shaikan Fracture System had been quantified, which is equivalent to saying that they had the Fracture Porosity. So it is self evidently the case that GKP did have the Fracture Volume and the Fracture Porosity.
3. in the concealed webcast and concealed GulfTV episode, GKP revealed that the differential for the Fracture System was that "each 0.2% of Fracture Porosity represents 800 million barrels of Reserves". John Stafford explicitly stated that such Reserves would be added "overnight". There is no point anyone trying to deny what he said. The more relevant question perhaps is "how did GKP have that figure?".
I think there are only two ways:
(a) the Fracture System was mapped in detail in terms of average Fracture Density and average Fracture Thickness throughout the Shaikan structure, and/or
(b) the volume of oil in the Fracture System had been measured using empirical measurements of pressure and flow rates etc. I note that it was much later, on 9 July 2013, that John Stafford made his very bullish remarks at the Geological Society, including the c. 13 billion barrel Jurassic Connected Volume and the colossal 6 mile Jurassic drainage radius. And that was when he made his comment about Shaikan being "all a bit shot to pieces with fractures, but that's a good thing".
The date is highly revealing, because GKP had received the Ryder Scott Shaikan Fracture Report some seventeen months earlier. And on 13 March 2014 GKP said that Shaikan had the biggest Fracture System that they (and ERC Equipoise) had come across. John Gerstenlauer did not agree with the CPR; the 0.4% figure "adopted" by ERC Equipoise is actually a very *low* figure for a fractured Carbonate reservoir, as is easily established from the "literature" to which John Gerstenlauer referred in that now-concealed webcast.
4. GKP currently say that Shaikan is a gravity drainage reservoir. John Stafford had said that "very small matrix block size" would support gravity drainage. Such size represents intense fracturing in more than one plane: again, this fits his "shot to pieces with fractures" remark.
5. at that time, GKP thought that there was a high-pressure aquifer at Shaikan, w