Member Info for EV_Bull

Doesn't have to be an IPO can be a partial sale of stake, was mostly to demonstrate my point. His point was that it's probably a year or so away, not that it's unlikely. We could sell the whole thing for the right price of course.
Could be wrong but read between the lines IMO. The annual report and his quote do not say explicitly 49% or 22%...

Q&A:
"Cadence having retained it's 27 or whatever whatever percentage it ends up with of the asset."

Annual Report:
"During 2022, our priorities on the Amapa Iron Ore Project will be the publication of a maiden Ore Reserve Estimate, followed by the release of a PFS on the project. We will also plan to increase our stake in the asset."

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"I think the next thing was about an IPO, I mentioned this as a possible solution to raise equity for the capital construction of Amapa because you know you're going to have a capital expenditure in the hundreds of millions to reconstruct the plant, railway and port, which as you know typically if you were to reconstruct them new you'd be in the billion dollar mark and of course we expect that to be much lower than that as I've mentioned before, but only a portion of that would be capital expenditure would be debt financing maybe 70 percent and the rest would be equity. Now you know Cadence could contribute in its current state and raise capital to contribute to that equity of course that's a while away, but the other option would be of course to list it and you know Cadence having retained it's 27 or whatever whatever percentage it ends up with of the asset and then list it into a new vehicle which would raise money to uh build that project and raise equity so there would be a dilution on our equity stake in Amapa. So they both are dilutions but I think the most important thing is that often when sometimes assets are stripped out effectively they are fully exposed to the public market you may get a better valuation for your shares and you'll certainly have a mark to market valuation of your shares rather than the balance sheet valuation two shares

so we all consider all these options at the end it's all about return to shareholders but I would add it's not going to occur soon even if we decided to do it because it typically takes up to six months to get a listing done and we certainly wouldn't consider it until we've completed the pre-feasibility study which would form the basis of the technical competent persons report required for listing so all these things are always in our mind but we'll trigger them if we see there's value to do so"
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Would be 34%-39% but you get the idea, end up with 7%-12% extra at no cost overall and with no dilution.

I think It's always good to have a plan B, we have to see what the SP does post PFS but dilution would be the least favourable option, I would rather take a loan that could be paid back by an IPO, seems like it would be more value accretive if we could sell 10% or 15% in a years time for enough to pay back the loan and essentially make out with 32%-37% with no dilution that would be miles better also.

hopefully a lot more

hence "more than $24m"

The good news is the recent deals are making the company easier to value, especially once the Hastings deal closes. Sonora is the interesting one given that it's totally ignored and not reflected in our SP any deal there should add significant value to us, something that unlocks more than $24m in the next few months would be a plus for sure.

Just to be clear they are talking about 2022, but our 2024 Sonora project is likely to see a lot of interest.
Ganfeng previously said they were "accelerating construction" and going to 50kt or Hydroxide for Phase 1.

Market thinks it's worth zero however!

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/tz8dyd/exclusive_ganfeng_eyes_us_oems_for_strategic/
China’s Ganfeng Lithium says major US automakers could make a “strategic” investment in the Sonora lithium mine in Mexico, as they seek to create a North American supply chain for battery raw materials.

China’s largest lithium producer said that an investment by Ford, GM or Tesla would help provide automakers with reliable supplies of lithium that can be easily shipped across the border to plants in the US.

“We are open to having strategic investors in our Mexico project, together with investment we could have an offtake agreement with them,” Wang Xiaoshen, vice chairman of Ganfeng, told Benchmark Minerals

Speaking of 2024 Jimb2:
"We think this is the year in which the market will finally realize that there is a problem and next year it's not going to be raining excess supply. Anything that can produce before 2025 is going to be in high demand in our opinion and that might even widen as the shortage is fully understood. If you look lithium is now the largest raw material cost in an nmc 622 cell and we think that this is the year that oems and cell companies will be forced into major JV upstream to secure lithium supply and this point has been made many times by many of my fellow commentators in the industry. You cannot just secure supply if prices are going to remain elevated because there's been insufficient upstream investment. You need to secure supply and you need to lock in price at a reasonable level as well in order to make decent operating margins as an oem so in order to do that there is no choice but to make and close investments and direct investments into upstream producers."

https://www.reddit.com/r/CadenceMinerals/comments/vue6g5/lithium_is_the_structural_deficit_here_to_stay/ifczhmc/

https://selesnafes.com/2021/06/ministro-e-davi-anunciam-1o-habitacional-e-pavimentacao-de-santana/

"The deal comes amid a rush to secure lithium resources as demand for the metal soars on expectations of rapid growth in electric vehicle demand."

The 576 houses number corresponds with this news in January.
https://www.diariodoamapa.com.br/cadernos/politica/1o-conjunto-habitacional-de-santana-assinado-o-contrato-com-a-caixa-para-construcao-das-576-casas-populares/

1.1. The purpose of this public notice is to disclose the Demand List and the Steps to be fulfilled by the candidates referring to the housing units of social interest of the "Dignified Housing" Program, called CONJUNTO HABITACIONAL VILA PORTO, totaling 500 (five hundred) housing units - UH's and 76 (seventy-six) lots in the aforementioned housing development.

DISTRICT OF SANTANA - 3rd CIVIL COURT OF SANTANA; the area of ??the track, which corresponds to the urban perimeter of the Railway of Amapá – EFA; to the polygonal area of ??the municipal public dump and; single areas defined based on the public interest that needs to carry out urban interventions and public works in accordance with chapter I of items 4.7 and 4.7.4 of Ordinance No. 163 of May 6, 2016/MC

3.2 The Housing Coordination of the Municipality of Satana-AP, through its Technical Team, carried out interventions with families residing in the areas specified in item 3.1 of this notice, from 05/06/2022 to 06/30/2022, through a Social Study with the use of technical-methodological instruments such as interviews, observations and home visits, with the objective of identifying the inhabitants of the specified areas, providing a technical service with information and clarity about the entire process in which they were being submitted and especially regarding of the “DIGNA HOUSING” Programme, Vila Porto Housing Complex.

Based on the Social Diagnosis pointed out by the Technical Team of the Support Center for the Technical Social Project, 576 families were identified in the areas of intervention, with 500 (five hundred) candidates who will be sent to the Housing Units -UH's that make up the list for inclusion in the PMD – HOUSING VILA PORTO, and 76 (sixty-six) candidates who will compose the list of families that will be covered with lots.

@dallas post IPO we would be very easy to value and should trade at a small discount to NAV based on the value of public holdings, unless there are further private projects coming post Sonora which would cause a possibility of a divergence. At such a point that all of our holdings were public the company changes significantly in my view, and shareholders might want to push for different outcomes, dividends, share buybacks, share distributions (possibly with a winding up of the company) this would be the time that it would make sense to push management to shareholder friendly payouts and there are probably enough of us here to vote through what we could collectively agree upon. I don’t believe that time is now though. Let’s get Amapa PFS done and IPOd and see what happens with Sonora. The end game could be very attractive to shareholders just a bit of patience needed.

We have a stake in a number of billion dollar projects.
Amapa certainly has billion dollar potential and is a proven project, Anglo paid / invested more than that.
EMH $1.9pm NPV at a fraction of the current Li price.
Sonora is a multi billion dollar project we have a significant chunk of.
HAS is another billion dollar project we will have 2% of.
Fingers crossed for our stake in Evergreen, if it’s anything like the core lithium project next door that also is a billion dollar project.

https://nationalports.com/transhipment-transmax/

28/03/2022
NAVIGATION IN FOCUS – A new Project in the Amazon
The DEV Mineração Company, which has been installed in the city of Santana, in the State of Amapá since April 2021, when it took over the liabilities of the former ZAMIN Mineração and Anglo Ferrous, resumed the activities of shipping iron ore through the Port of Companhia Docas de Santana. Last year there were 12 shipments. In 2022, it has already performed the first.
Due to the good performance, DEV Mineração is developing a study to return to operation at the site of the former ICOMI pier. The project provides for the installation of a state-of-the-art loader (which is even classified as a ship), allowing the port to operate with CAPESIZE type ships. In this way, it will be possible to transport up to 150 thousand tons of ore. A landmark for the Amazon region.The Project arrives in the region at a good moment, due to the studies of the dynamic draft in Barra Norte of the Amazon River, which aims to increase the draft to 11.90. Last week, a meeting was already held at the Captaincy of the Ports of Amapá, chaired by the Captain of the Ports CMG Kaysel Ribeiro , and with the presence of Dr. Raquel Dalseco , CEO of DEV, and the manager of Serveporto in Santana, Mr. Rubens Silva where the project was presented to the Maritime Authority.

http://portaldanavegacao.com/2022/03/28/navegacao-em-foco-um-novo-projeto-na-amazonia/

Directly half loading the cape size unlocks the potential for higher rates of production. 11mtpa has been noted by the media several times. It makes the project more attractive to suitors for sure. Trinidad was quite a detour when Anglo were doing it so that part is also avoided.

Any additional mine life or grade improvements will directly benefit the NPV of the project, worth waiting for and maybe the market will improve a bit in that time period too.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/volkswagen-s-ceo-talks-batteries-supply-chains-and-the-porsche-911
Are you trying to become more self-reliant in each of your regions?
Diess:
Battery production should be local because it’s heavy weight-lifting. It’s really a lot of material, a significant supply chain. You need a lot of lithium, phosphate, cobalt, nickel, copper foil — huge amounts. It should be close to the battery plants, because if not, transport cost is just too much.

https://twitter.com/todd_hannigan/status/1545062157724766208

Are you trying to become more self-reliant in each of your regions?
Diess:
Battery production should be local because it’s heavy weight-lifting. It’s really a lot of material, a significant supply chain. You need a lot of lithium, phosphate, cobalt, nickel, copper foil — huge amounts. It should be close to the battery plants, because if not, transport cost is just too much.