Member Info for EthanMT

As per subject, genuinely curious.

Yeah I jumped ship at 90p without any capital gains after holding for a year and a half.

Given the developments and the risk of losing all capital invested in this stock it's a bit mad to hold it even at 50p IMO

1. Ukraine war isn't ending anytime soon (as far as we can see)

2. Ukraine government is in the process of seizing half the subsidiary of FXPO (Yes half owned by investors, it isn't just Zhevagos stake - saying otherwise just shows a person's ignorance of corporate structure)

3. Financial results will be horrendous due to the trading restrictions, VAT etc. put on the company as part of 2.

4. You could also discuss what the long term outlook for iron ore is, given most of it is used in building which could face headwinds long term due to less building in China and general global population decline, but even points 1-3 are enough to not really take a punt on this stock above 10-20p

I've been advising to sell since 90p but all you get in return on this forum is being called a Russian troll, i.e. no actual rebuttals to any points made

No, they're seizing half of Poltava Mining. Owned by yourself and also Zhevago. It isn't just Zhevago's stake - the cult buying into this stock don't seem to understand that

Perhaps focus on the fundamentals for this company rather than speculating on geopolitics all day long (Company going to be seized by the gov)

Agreed. The gas market should hold up much stronger, there's a lot of additional demand on the side really ready to go in the event of prices dropping

Sure Sergio, I don't disagree with that. That still doesn't guarantee the next government will behave the same way, but you're right that it could *potentially* change. Although the history of investments in Ukraine / Ukrainian stock market isn't exactly great post independence.

Based on the price now, the stock is way, way overvalued. The reward does not compensate for the risk taken on. The stock price still doesn't even reflect that half of shareholders holdings being seized is basically a done deal. It barely prices in the risk of continued VAT withholds / the war continuing and no peace agreement forming. It doesn't account for the possible trumpcession happening because of the "liberation day" tariffs.

This is easily 50% down or more from here.

"Troajan", what I wrote there is literally what the Ukrainian government say they are going to do. They literally SAY they will seize 49% of the company but your response is that I am a "Pro Z Kremlin Propoganderist" (It's propagandist by the way, please do try)

"The state would more than likely offer its shares to institutional investor's or the Ukrainian public."

Alex, just lol. That's the most (unintentionally) funny thing I've ever read.

I refer back to my original warning when this was trading at 80p:

"I'm sending the first message ever here just to warn you, as someone who lived in Russia 5 years (Ukraine is the same way), the Police won't lost the case - courts in these countries are just a rubber stamp. They've said the following on their website:

"In particular, it is proposed to nationalize 541 real estate objects owned by the enterprise, as well as 172 land plots that are under early lease by the plant for 49 years. In addition, 2,382 railway cars and 53,331 linear meters of access tracks may fall under the procedure."

Believe them - this will happen. In Russia and Ukraine there's a 99.5% conviction rate in courts. The above quote is straight from the horses mouth (the state), so ignore it at your risk."

This is Ukraine / Russia / Belarus territory. Imagining there will be a legal challenge and a back and forth is just pure naivety. This isn't the UK guys! It's toast.

They're taking 49% of Poltava Mining PJSC, so they're taking half of holders of Ferrexpo PLC as well. This (in my opinion), is more or less guaranteed, there's just a lot of ignorance going around here from people who think they are not facing permanent capital loss. Poltava Mining IS Ferrexpo, if half of that is seized by Ukraine gov (this is a good case scenario), you lose half of the assets, shareholder capital, etc. Half of the revenue and profits for the company for Ferrexpo PLC.

In laymans terms:

2024: Poltava mining gives 100 pounds to Ferrexpo the parent company.

2025: Poltava mining still produces 100 pounds of profits. However, as it is no longer 100% owned by Ferrexpo, but 49% Ukraine gov, they take 49 pounds. Ferrexpo shareholders get 51 pounds.

^^^ Is a good case scenario, assuming they don't just take the lot. With how aggressive they're being, and how much pressure they're putting on the company re VAT, there's a 50ish percent chance they're just going to grab it all, in my opinion at least.

It's really not a good look. Warning once again around the risk of capital loss.

There's also a risk the war doesn't end as well and the company is just totally kneecapped financially, even if the takeover doesn't happen. I am surprised this is still trading above 50p.

Not at all paid, you've said yourself that you have lost a lot of money in the market previously, perhaps, just perhaps you might be on the wrong side of this one?

As I said, I am an ex investor in Ferrexpo from 2023, I practically did not make any gains or losses, only a small gain, so overall not a good investment considering I held for a year and a half, I only write to warn that there is a great risk of capital loss due to the actions of the Ukrainian government. You can do whatever you like with your money, of course. If you think it's a great investment then double down.

Used to be a shareholder in this until Jan, I'm surprised it's even holding this price - an element of naivety I think because best case scenario is the entire profit of Ferrexpo is taxed, worst case full nationalisation without payment to shareholders and 100% permanent capital loss.

The problem here isn't the war, the Ukrainian government is trying to nationalise Ferrexpo without compensation to shareholders (i.e. steal it). https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/industrial-and-manufacturing/due-to-the-decision-of-the-tax-authorities-not-to-refund-vat-ferrexpo-1006208

Hold it then, I have no position anyway

I'm just telling you that in Ukraine the court is just a tool to rubberstamp for the government, it's pretty well known that in these countries there is no independence or separation between the court or the government. You can do what you want to do, I used to hold this a while ago but sold after trump was elected.

It will go uncontested, it's not the UK mate. Courts and Gov are on the same team, not independent of eachother, in Russia and Ukraine. Believe otherwise at your own peril.

I.e. to summarise it, they seem to be going for the full lot. Source was posted by Sergio20. In my opinion, most likely case is going to zero. Obviously I do not have a crystal ball.

I'm sending the first message ever here just to warn you, as someone who lived in Russia 5 years (Ukraine is the same way), the Police won't lost the case - courts in these countries are just a rubber stamp. They've said the following on their website:

"In particular, it is proposed to nationalize 541 real estate objects owned by the enterprise, as well as 172 land plots that are under early lease by the plant for 49 years. In addition, 2,382 railway cars and 53,331 linear meters of access tracks may fall under the procedure."

Believe them - this will happen. In Russia and Ukraine there's a 99.5% conviction rate in courts. The above quote is straight from the horses mouth (the state), so ignore it at your risk.