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Some good points Pickuzawinnah.... I wouldn’t generally disagree. I too envisioned 6p plus by the end of the year. Currently I’m happy to stay at that figure ,though you’re prudent view may turn out to be nearer the mark and for one wouldn’t be unhappy with that if it was a sustained level, time will tell..... so it’s back to the patience game!
GLA
Yep..... I agree to an extent. It’s the long-term hold where the real gains will be made beyond this year etc. As well as EQT declaring new potential deals into the pipeline and who knows what other news to come, ultimately, it will be the pounds, shillings and pence coming into the coffers that brings about a sustained increase in value. Especially on the AIM market! Where any good news announced can cause a spike which then gradually drifts back over a number of days/weeks as people get bored or otherwise distracted and look for somewhere else to put their money.
But, nonetheless, I do feel the SP would be sitting further north currently had it not been for the JH sell-off! For me that’s a simple truth at the moment.
GLA
While the broader economy, depression, gold, bond yields, money printing, inflation etc. etc. can all have an effect.....I think the current causes behind EQT’s SP are much simpler! The massive Sell orders are more than supplying Buying pressure and then some! I remain of the belief that JH are continuing their sell off, with their broker/s chipping away each day. Most days you only need to compare the Cumulative traded total for the day against posted Buys/Sells to see a large ‘unaccounted’ difference. And it can’t have escaped most peoples attention that large trades often appear after hours, often around the 10 million mark or are carried over to the following day where the broker couldn’t complete the trade.
In the 9th Feb Holdings RNS, JH declared a 4.42% remaining holding of 313,833,333. So 1% equates to roughly 71,000,000 shares. On 12th Feb JH declared a reduced holding of 3.91% equating to 277,033,333......which means they sold 36,800,000 over 4 days! Almost 10m per day average! Hmmm.....sounds familiar! Roll forward a month to the 11th of March and JH declare a new holding, stating their ownership has now dropped below 3%! Unfortunately no figures given for actual shares held so we don’t know at that point in time how much below 3% the revised holding was. But I think we could safely assume they’d sold at least another 100m and were continuing to Sell after this date in my opinion. Then we come to our wonderful RNS at the beginning of this week which by all normal standards should’ve caused quite a sharp increase in the SP! I anticipated between 2.50p and even 3p but it didn’t happen! And watching on Level 2 you could see something was holding the price back despite the enormous buying pressure! And sure enough, what did we see after hours.....around 79,000,000 in posted Sells which I believe is purely down to the brokers for JH taking advantage to accelerate the Sell orders they’ve been instructed to complete. Only doing their job there. So that one day would account for more than 1% of JH’s holding.
Once JH are completely out, I believe we’ll start to see the SP tick up under a more normal basis without the weight of a huge anchor holding us back. I don’t think it will be long now before they’re finished, and for me, that’ll be on/before 4th April. That’s why I still see the stock as a ‘Strong Buy’ as current levels will all to soon become dim and distant!
The other two key developments being awaited, that should cause a strong upward movement in the SP, are of course the Wood GRP report/possible tie-up and project financial closure reporting on Billingham et al! Patience is the game.
The above is only my opinion, I could be completely wide of the mark and reading more into trading activity than is really the case. But I don’t believe so. Anyway, time will tell, let’s see what happens over the next few days .
GLA
Hi Crocqman...... while I take your points re Janus, for me, there’s a little bit more to it. Up to and including the last TR1 issued by JH it was clear to see a pattern of behaviour, with large Sell orders being fulfilled in the background throughout the day or into the next and often getting posted after hours. Such a large sell-off has clearly had an impact on the SP, in my opinion, over and above the normal activity and the all too often, gradual drift in an AIM stock where people lose patience, get bored or even nervous and seek to move on.
While there is nothing to be done about it, I feel it’s useful to at least attempt to understand cause and effect on the SP to assist with investment decisions! Knowing, or believing, that JH are continuing their selling pattern, Could be encouraging to investors wanting to purchase stock with the current SP being held back to a degree. Once JH (or whoever people think it is) reach their target, I firmly believe we will see a more determined and consistent rise in EQT than we’ve seen to date this year. Add in further news of corporate tieups, financial closures or new clients/MOU’s Will only intensify and increase the SP. further, had it not been for the continuing large background selling, I would not have been surprised to see the SP climb north of 2.50! When watching activity on Level 2, you get a feeling of an inconsistent behaviour by MM’s versus The trading activity being posted. This morning was a very clear example. So I try to get a handle on what is causing that.
As others on here have opined, my belief is that JH are aiming to complete their sell-off by, or before, 4th April (end of the 2020/21 tax year). Like all of our comments on this BB, I may be wrong but nevertheless no harm in continuing trying to assess and understand SP pressures and response to activities/RNS.
For my part, I am neither impatient, bored or nervous and will be holding on to EQT for some years I suspect. My weakness or shortcoming is I struggle to understand, when the price heads south, why so many people appear and post their concerns/worries and seeking reassurance and advice on what to do! As I mentioned before on here, surely if you’ve done your research and properly understand what you’re investing in and your goals, rather than taking a punt or jumping on the bandwagon where everyone else is but not really understanding why, there is no reason for concern as long as, and like I said at the beginning, you’re understanding cause and effect! Or at least trying to FWIW!
GLA
This really does feel like a coiled spring at the moment! With MM’s fulfilling JH’s background Sell orders, it’s like the SP being restrained by a heavyweight, despite the enormous buying pressure today! Once cleared, light the fuse and run!
London South East Mr scoobyrex
Agreed Mr Crocqman...... I suspect they were just paying lip service to me and others that enquire! As nothing has changed! And you may have seen from my initial email to them, I asked for timelines, which was ignored in their reply. Anyway, we do but try!
Reply received......
“We have a sporadic glitch on the website at the moment whereby the mid price isn't correctly calculated. Our technical team are working to get a fix in place as soon as possible.
Kind regards
Craig”
Unfortunately, others have received the same exact reply (and some time ago) so guessing it’s a prepared stock answer! Shame really! No timeline!
Breath will not be held!
A number of us are fed up of LSE’s Handling of the SP at the point a UT trade is posted for a Stock! They constantly misrepresent the actual SP and show incorrect percentage gains or losses until at least one MM amends their Bid/Ask offers on Level 2, at which point the situation corrects and reverts to reporting the true SP and percentage!
I have sent the following to LSE and would encourage anyone if so minded to also raise the matter with them. And then maybe something can be done if enough voices pitch in!:
“ To whom it may concern
I don’t know if this is a programming error in the software or a deliberate action but consistently your software shows incorrect mid SP for any stock where/when a UT trade is posted! The SP immediately adopts the price of that UT trade and disregards the true mid point! Further it hold the incorrect SP until such time as an MM updates their new trade range! As an example the current SP being shown for EQT is 2.00 with the Bid/Ask at 1.95/2.10......this is clearly incorrect as the midpoint SP should be 2.25!
Often a UT trade is posted after hours or close to the Close and as such your software adopts whatever that trade price happens to be! So this not only posts an incorrect SP, it then also impacts the historical statistics which aren’t corrected and so gives incorrect and misleading data!
Your whole handling of UT trades creates incorrect, misleading and faulty prices purporting to represent the true SP at that time! This surely flouts any regulatory requirements for clear, accurate and unambiguous presentation of financial data?!
Can you advise me what is being done to correct your software and expected timelines as to when such corrective actions will take effect!”
Surely, only hurt if needing to realise any shares? If no plans to sell, it really doesn’t matter in the short term!
News is not an issue, there’s allsorts of it due imminently!
At the moment, the background selling by Janus Henderson is really what’s holding the price back! The sooner that’s over, the better but we won’t know until we start to see an improvement in the bought/sold balance versus the cumulative total for share volume alongside an SP gain. It’s not lost on me that the Aries case may also be having a disproportionate effect in keeping the SP down, but I think that’s only a secondary issue!
GLA
Here’s an excerpt from the relevant section of the Aries Gasification, LLC v. North Fork Community Power, LLC et al. Docket (item 27)......
“ MINUTE ORDER (TEXT Only): Due to the current status of the case, the SCHEDULING CONFERENCE set for 02/25/2021 is continued to March 29, 2021 at 9:00 AM in Courtroom 8 (BAM) before Magistrate Judge Barbara A. McAuliffe with each party connecting remotely either via Zoom video conference or Zoom telephone number.........
........ The parties shall file a Joint Scheduling Report one week prior to the conference. NOTE: Motion to Dismiss (Doc.16 ) pending. Minute order signed by Magistrate Judge Barbara A. McAuliffe on 2/12/2021.“
https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/35245519/Aries_Gasification,_LLC_v_North_Fork_Community_Power,_LLC_et_al
GLA
Just to add also, I do feel that barring some exceptional news (and maybe the dismissal of the Aries complaint) the big gains will come once EQT announce financial close on significant projects and the hard cash starts to flow in! Which it surely will! As always, you have to be patient for the big gains! Turning a quick buck is not my focus! I’ll leave that to the Swiss Toni’s of the world!
As many of you will know, I have little to no interest on short-term/daily movements in the SP as I am purely focused on long-term gains! Nonetheless, I do like to try and understand, if possible, cause-and-effect when it comes to SP movement.
I’d be interested to hear what everyone else thinks is going on at the moment....contributing factors etc! But here’s my take........I think the large-scale selling that we’ve been seeing over the last few weeks (partly explained by recent RNS where TR1 requirements take effect) is down to PI‘s and institutional investors selling to lock in the recent gains on EQT, which by ordinary standards are beyond impressive, and to realise these gains prior to The end of this current tax year (April 4th)! Indeed, with these profits in mind, and where investors aren’t able to offset against losses elsewhere, there may also be a CGT tax burden that they have to meet! Or any variation of these possibilities around financial liabilities and/or planning!
Today, as has happened on many other days over the last few weeks, we’ve seen a big difference between the sum of the bought /sold volume versus total overall volume! As bigdouble has reported below, 14m At the close! I wouldn’t be surprised, as on previous days to see some late trades get posted through shortly to account for the bulk of the difference! Failing which, if these orders still to be finalised, then they may carry over into tomorrow and so on!
Anyway, that’s my take on what’s going on! As before, it’s of no concern to me as by the end of the year the current SP will be a dim and distant, and very low, memory!
GLA!
Just to unpack today’s RNS as there maybe some confusion.
Back on 20th July 2020 a Holdings RNS issued stating:
Janus Henderson Group Plc was the ultimate controlling legal entity over a further 7 companies within their group, one of which included Henderson Global Investors Ltd.(HGI) Through this latter company the group had acquired 333,333,333 shares in EQT, which at the time represented 4.85% of the total number of shares in issue, being 6,886,712,306.
9th February 2020
Today’s RNS was triggered by HGI‘s holding falling below the 3% reporting trigger. And, as stated, they now hold 2.95% of EQT.
Notwithstanding this reduction in HGI’s holding, Janus Henderson Group Plc as a whole now hold 333,833,333 shares in EQT representing 4.42% of the total number of shares in issue today of 7,093,913,190!
So even though the group holds slightly more shares than they did back in July, the overall holding has dropped in percentage terms due to there being more shares in issue, as a result of exercised warrants and employee share issues during the intervening period!
One assumes that the remaining percentage over and above HGI‘s 2.95% holding, that gives rise to the total group holding in EQT of 4.42%, is with other companies in the group that haven’t had to report through a TR1 as individually they haven’t breached the 3% trigger!
Hopefully this helps to clarify/demystify etc.
GLA