RE: Tweet11 Mar 2026 19:45
Interesting analysis, thanks Drantley, and Bob!
On point 2. I guess it depends on what kind of HDD we are processing. If it's a datacentre HDD, the range is apparently 10-30g NdFeB (the range for a desktop HDD is 6-19g and it's 2-6g for laptop HDDs). If the business model is to put them at datacentres then I think we can assume an average of 20g.
On point 3. it probably depends what product we are looking at. The 15th December RNS on Hypromag USA valuation gave an average basket price of NdFeB products at $57/kg. Neodymium prices have increased c. 70% since then, so about $97/kg. This is a weighted basket price of products which includes 941 tonnes of finished magnets and 611 tonnes of NdFeB co-products. If the basket of products were the same for US and UK plants we could probably use this $97/kg assumption, but I think the product mix for Tyseley is currently likely more weighted towards the lower value products e.g. NdFeB alloy powder and sintered NdFeB magnet blocks, rather than finished magnets. So I'd say around $90 may be a safer assumption.
On point 4. it's hard to deduce the current operating costs and depends how many Inserma units / what throughput we are spreading the operating cost across. We know that this is the second unit, with the first being at the ILS site in Airdrie. But I think the $15k per week for plant operating costs per unit seems on the low side and based on what we know from the Hypromag USA FS, with a mark-up for UK energy costs, I think $25k per week per unit would be more appropriate.
Updated analysis:
- Contained NdFeB assumption increases from 12g to 20g per HDD
- Basket price reduces from $100/kg to $90/kg
- Operating costs increase from $15k per week per unit to $25k per week
We get to $54k in NdFeB revenue per week per unit, $61.5k of total revenue per week per unit, $36.5k profit per week per unit and $1.83m profit per annum per unit. This all assumes a single shift.
600kg per week is equivalent to about 2.6 tonnes per month. We were targeting 2 tonnes per month / 25tpa in the ramp up phase. So on a single shift pattern one Inserma unit (the one at the ILS Airdrie site) could cover all the feedstock required for this phase. To get to the 100tpa running a single shift for both the Inserma machines and the line as a whole, we would need just over 3 Inserma units. Same would apply if we ran 3 shifts to get to 300tpa+. Of course, while we are concentrating on datacentre HDD's, we have other sources of feedstock, so it may be that we could either have one less unit / run the Inserma units on fewer shifts.
So as Jbanzi said, I think the addition of this second machine indicates that we are moving beyond 2tpm / 25tpa ramp up, but I am keen to see that in writing from the company, and unfortunately we have 7 weeks to wait until the results come out for confirmation of this. Unless they decide to give us an update at the end of this quarter along with the hoped for German commissioning news...
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