Member Info for epiphany121

17 million shares traded - that's quite good on an up-day for ENQ. And Brent's gone on to new session/year highs a short while earlier. What's not to like about this?

Nice. Chilt - where do you get real-time volumes from?

Barclays, oh Barclays. What have you done and where are you now?

Thanks to MO - this is what I have for the historical offload data. I've only really started properly recording data from the last 2 or 3 loads.

11.3 Offload #7 (Navion Britannia ) - Started: 15/1 16:00, left 16/1 20:15 (28 hours) - Draught change: 2.8m
11.9 Offload #8 (Navion Oceania ) - Started: 28/1 18:30, left 29/1 22:30 (28 hours) - Draught change: 3.8m
10.3 Offload #9 (Navion Britannia ) - Started: 9/2 06:00, left 10/2 09:00 (27 hours) - Draught change: 2.8m
10.9 Offload #10 (Navion Oceania ) - Started: 21/2 06:30, left 22/2 09:00 (26.5 hours) - Draught change: 3.1m
11.9* Offload #11 (Navion Britannia ) - Started: 6/3 06:00, left 7/3 00:30 (17.5 hours) - Draught change: 0.8m
24.2* Offload #12 (Stena Natalita ) - Started: 31/3 05:00, left 31/3 22:30 (17.5 hours) - Draught change: 2.1m
10.4 Offload #13 (Amundsen Spirit) - Started: 11/4 06:30, left 12/4 08:30 (26 hours) - Draught change: 2.8m
11 Offload #14 (Heather Knutsen) - Started: 23/4 07:30, left 24/4 22:00 (38.5 hours) - Draught change: 2.8m
12.4 Offload #15 (Navion Anglia ) - Started: 6/5 06:30, left 8/5 04:00 (45.5 hours) - Draught change: 2.2m
17.1 Offload #16 (Heather Knutsen) - Started: 25/5 07:00, left 26/5 13:00 (30 hours) - Draught change: 3.1m
13.2 Offload #17 (Amundsen Spirit) - Started: 8/6 16:00, left 9/6 22:00 (Duration 30 hours)
15.3 Offload #18 (Heather Knutsen) - Started: 25/6 06:30, left 26/6 08:00 (Duration 25.5 hours) 
14.1 Offload #19 (Navion Oceania ) - Started: 10/7 10:00, left 11/7 12:00 (Duration 26 hours) 
14.2 Offload #20 (Navion Hispania) - Started: 25/7 17:00, left 27/7 09:30 (Duration: 40.5 hours)
18.3 Offload #21 (Navion Oceania) - Started: 14/8 18:30, left 15/8 18:30 (Duration: 24 hours) - Draught change: 3.2m
12.6 Offload #22 (Heather Knutsen) - Started: 28/8 08:30, left 29/8 10:30 (Duration: 26 hours)
12.6 Offload #23 (Heather Knutsen) - Started: 10/9 18:30, left 11/9 20:30 (Duration: 26 hours)
15.4 Offload #24 (Heather Knutsen) - Started: 27/9 07:00, left 28/9 10:00 07:00 (Duration: 26 hours)
13.1 Offload #25 ( Amundsen Spirit) - Started: 11/10 10:00, left 12/10 13:00
16.7 Offload #26 (Navion Hispania) - Started 29/10 07:00, left 30/10 10:00

XX.X Offload #33 (Heather Knutsen) - Started 25/03 left 26/03 14:00
11.3 Offload #34 (Scott Spirit) - Started 06/04 07:00 left 07/04 14:00 (Duration 31 hours)
11.1 Offload #35 (Heather Knutsen) - Started 18/04 16:00 left 19/04 20:00 (28 hours)

L3 - I won't interject myself into the hedging discussion. If you feel your opinion warrants an action, write to IR. There's no point providing advise to ENQ on this board. ;-)

My $400 million number was regarding FCF, not net debt reduction. There are other factors that'll impact net debt reduction, not least of which are factors such as how much non debt liabilities will need to be paid down this year, timing of cash flows, etc. There may be more certainty next year around FCF and its near match to debt reduction.

Chilting - I don't believe for a second that today is the Brent high for 2019. Lol..There are loads more bullish factors in the works that'll take Brent to higher levels - albeit not in a straight line. I won't be surprised to see a small correction from these levels, but today is far from the 2019 high, IMO. I know you and L3 have been pessimistic about Brent and calling for Hedging from when Brent was just about touching 70 - I don't share either view. No panic hedging is needed. Layered hedges are what's required.

US-China Trade dispute resolution/Continued growth in China & India/Summer driving season and the resultant draws/US growth - these are all factors that will keep Brent solidly in the 70s through the summer.

Nice one, Pelle. I hope the weather there is as good as it is in the UK.. ;-)

Yes, indeed it has panned out really well for ENQ. Assuming 68 kboepd rate in Q1, we know 50% was hedged at $70 floor and the other 50% would've fetched ENQ $64. But Q2 is trending well with average already hitting $70. Maybe AB does have a lucky touch!!! ;-)

Assuming $70 Brent and 70 kboepd run rate, FCF is coming out at $400 mill (just over) as per my model. This includes the $100 mill additional 'capex', which was to pay back suppliers for previous years' work, as per ENQ's guidance.

I'll look to add a few additional shares tomorrow. ;-) This is to bring down my average a bit more from the high 20s that I'm at right now.

GL...

Afternoon Pelle,

I don't have my laptop with me. I'll ping you back later.

Average 70 for 2019 is a reasonable assumption, as I suspect Brent will back off a bit in the next few days, after Numpty lets off a bit of steam.

Mid 70s is also a reasonable to start layering on additional 2019 and 2020 hedges. I'll ping a note to IR.

Making money is very broad term. I'm not too interested in EBITDA and net profits, to be honest. FCF is what really matters for paying down debt and they'll be rolling it in with these prices. Circa $15 to $17 million FCF for every additional $ increase in Brent.

GLA

Lol...Dol03. ;-)

Oil off 8. Permian off 2. Overall oil rigs only up 5 on last year this time.

Enjoy the Easter break all. Brent is positioned well in the low 70s and this is a plus for us as FCF is rapidly generated.

I have no doubt that it was intended to be as useful as it came across to us !!!

There's some additional detail in the AR around hedging and that shows to me they're being proactive around taking out regular hedges. We knew that they had 3 mmbbls hedged at a 70 floor for Q1 and it based on the detail below, an additional 3.5 mmbbls were hedged for Q2, I'd suggest - at a floor of low to mid 60s and a ceiling in the low to mid 70s. It's good to note that they're cracking on with it and are far more realistic about where Brent will trend in the near future and hence, are layering appropriate hedges. I can see this continue going forwards and that augurs well for 2020 cash flows.

A decline in oil and gas prices would adversely affect the Group’s operations and financial condition. To mitigate oil price volatility, the Directors have hedged approximately 6.5 MMbbls of collar options at an average floor price of around $66/bbl in the first half of 2019. In accordance with the Oz Management facility agreement, the Group has a further approximately 1.5 MMbbls hedged across 2019 with an average floor price of around $56/bbl.
The Directors, in line with Group policy, will continue to pursue hedging at the appropriate time and price.

Anytime, Auson. Always happy to help fellow shareholders. :-)

Here you go, Auson.

https://www.orkneyharbours.com/port-authority/info/shipping

Heather should be leaving tonight and reach Kraken tomorrow..Make that a 11 day interval between loads..SWEEETTTT...

It's HK coming in to Orkney on the 20th from Kraken..Great news!!!

Correct, Romaron. Here's the exact wording on Page 281. The key is line 3 below which only states the debt under the SFA (Secured Financial Arrangement/Credit Facility) is what's counted for calculating the Leverage Ratio and that's the only covenant based metric across the entire ENQ debt base,

(where consolidated net financial indebtedness means the aggregate of all financial indebtedness (with the PIK Amount excluded from the definition of indebtedness)
of the Group under the SFA at the relevant time
less the aggregate of cash and cash equivalent investments of the Group)

Morning Romaron,

To be clear - neither did we breach any covenants NOR did we fail the leverage test, IF we take into account the covenants that are only linked to the RCF debt. The leverage ratios on page 281 of the prospectus pertains only to SFA/RCF debt and not overall net debt. The covenant stated that the ratio on 31/12/18 should be 1.75 and on 31/3/19 it should be 1.5.

RCF outstanding as of 31/12 was $785 mill and EBITDA was $716 and that's a circa 1.1 ratio, well under the 1.75 mandated ratio. As of 1/4/19, RCF is down to $680 mill and we're well under a ratio of 1.

The overall net debt to EBITDA is not covenant tested and on that count, we should be under the 1.75 ratio at the end of 2019, in line with AB's forecasts of between 1 and 2.

Date Ratio
––––––––––––––– ––––
31 December 2017 4.00:1.0
31 March 2018 4.00:1.0
30 June 2018 3.50:1.0
30 September 2018 2.00:1.0
31 December 2018 1:75:1.0
31 March 2019 1.50:1.0
30 June 2019 1.50:1.0
30 September 2019 1.50:1.0
31 December 2019 1.50:1.0
31 March 2020 1.50:1.0
30 June 2020 1.50:1.0
30 September 2020 1.50:1.0
31 December 2020 1.50:1.0
31 March 2021 1.50:1.0
30 June 2021 1.50:1.0

L3, Morning. I can but note the economic fundamentals and the IMO drivers, and wait for Brent prices to react. I'm more optimistic for 2019 than 2018 - the head winds are clearing up swiftly on that front (Trade wars, China Growth, USD strength).

Morning Pelle,

OK - having reviewed what Romaron and you were discussing with regards to page 281 of the Magnus prospectus - yes, you're correct on that count. The Financiall indebtedness and the covenant bound leverage ratio on that page indeed refers to the net SFA (RCF) debt to EBITDA ratio. You're right that this was indeed the covenant that useless Vic from RBC got wrong in her analysis and claimed that ENQ breached it. From a debt covenant measurement viewpoint, it's only the SFA/RCF debt that's in play and NOT the overall net debt of $1774.5 million as of 31/12/18.

The leverage ratio that AB discussed in the FY release - that's the overall net debt, which stood at close to 2.5 at the end of 2018 and which should drop to under 1.75 at the end of 2019.