Member Info for epiphany121

Laidback - at 200p/therm, revenues are £116/boe = $151/boe. You need to up your unhedged numbers by the GBP/USD conversion factor = 1.3. It is not an insignificant $400 mill + additional revenues/FCF a year.

KO - "Course I haven’t !
I ain’t that silly lol"

https://giphy.com/gifs/wzxK9cmYgIPDy

You#'re right L7 - that was GBP rather than USD.

2kboepd NBP gas is worth about $80 mill revenues at 200p/therm on an annualised basis.

Hello Jan - Target price prediction is really hard and unfortunately so, when Enquest has been caught up in the negative ESG cycle in the past 24 to 30 months. You'd think that a FCF yield of 25% means that a company is undervalued, but in Enquest's case, we'll be in the 70 to 80% yield based on the current SP and even a conservative FCF of 550 million for 2022. This is why I didn't put in a year end target when all of you put your bets down - there are just so many factors at play. Fortunately for us, sadly at the expense of the thousands of Ukrainians being killed, the world has woken up to the need for oil/gas closer to home and this should broadly push valuations up in the coming months. I sure would hope that Enquest would be up between 50 to 100% from these levels over the next 6 to 12 months should Brent hang around the $100 levels for longer. Your 60p target is no longer a pipe dream, IMO.

Spot on there with your assessment and read, Romaron. The UK government and Buyside will have no choice but to support domestic O&G companies and production. In the face of the Russian aggression, windfall taxes will be pásse, even with Labour I suspect. We should look forward to Enquest's valuation improving in the coming weeks/months to something that reflects reality - particularly in comparison to North American O&G companies.

I can't see a windfall tax happening whilst Russian import bans are being contemplated and it'll be all hands on deck in the next couple of years at least. Labour is not in power and conservatives will not bring on a windfall tax when the EU/UK are doing our utmost to wean ourselves off the crazy dictator's grip - maybe even Labour won't be that stupid to talk windfall taxes when there's an ongoing clash with Putin.

On another note, Barclays ups HBR target price to 670p. Ex-dividend tomorrow - this is the last day for the 11c dividends.. ;-)

That is spot on, Romaron. The EU has taken it's first step this morinng towards a 'ban' on fossil fuel imports from Russia by taking coal out of the picture. THis is an important first step in moving towards either an outright ban OR restrictions of O&G from Russia. EU will first move on oil as a second step before looking at gas. Jean Michel has said as much this morning in the European parliament. If a 180 mmbbls SPR release can't put much of a dent in Brent prices (Still above 100), only a much bigger price increase can, IMO. I dread that, but I can't see Brent stopping at these levels unfortunately, particularly as potential EU sanctions have put a floor under oil prices. Even Fed governor/VC Lael Brainard changing her tune from a dove to a proper hawk last evening, has done little to dent Brent/WTI.

Stock markets may struggle, but oil shares won't. THat's a very realistic outcome from the current state of play around the globe. To R's point, NS has become more relevant than ever, and Enquest's fortunes will be better than ever, IMO. Way better than they were prior to 2014.

"You cannot be an owner of them unless you buy them, and for private shareholders, ownership passes once you've paid for them - i.e. a minimum of two days time.". You're contradicting yourself right there - your wording here is right. They key date from a dividend viewpoint is the records date, which is the 8th of April. You need to be a shareholder in HBR's shareholder register on that date and to get there, you'll need to have bought latest on the 6th, which is 2 days prior to the record date. This is why there is the ex-dividend date of the 7th spelt out clearly - anything after the 6th of April is ex-dividend.

Take this example with GKP where I own a few shares. https://www.gulfkeystone.com/investors/dividend-information/

Their last dividend was pais on 25/02 and the record date was 11/02, with an ex-dividend date of 10/02. As long as you had shares on 09/02, you were paid the dividend. And you can see from the daily history below, that the drop happened on the ex-dividend date of 10th, and not on the 8th, going by your reasoning.

I can only wish you good luck with your investments. I suggest that you sell today/tomorrow and let us know on this board if you receive dividends in May on the shares sold today/tomorrow?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GKP.L/history?p=GKP.L

IMO, it's not just a single event like this, but what actually happens on the back-end of such a push by the government that will drive oil share valuations higher. It's great that the green/ESG brigade is being relegated to the back-burner whilst Russian O&G is taboo for the western world, and that'll also change the buyside's outlook to investing in this sector. Throw in a few Green credentials into the mix, and you can set your sights on higher sector valuation. Slowly and surely does it.

Wrong, Pearls. You are eligible to receive dividend as long as you buy it till the end of trading tomorrow. I'm not sure why the ex-dividend date is a difficult to understand concept for a seasoned investor? If you've invested in dividend shares previously, you'll know that the ex-dividend date is the date on which a share starts trading without being eligible for the dividend in question. As long as you buy it the day before the ex-dividend date, the buyer receives the dividend and the seller doesn't. From the ex-dividend date onwards, it's just the other way around.

Pearls - NO. HBR is ex-dividend on the 7th April and the record date is the 8th April, meaning shares purchased till the 6th will settle on the 8th (2 days settlement), which is the record date. Any shares purchased till the end of day tomorrow are Cum-dividend and will receice dividend on the 18th May.

https://www.harbourenergy.com/investors/shareholder-information/dividends/

HBR is NOT trading ex-dividend today.

Hi Jan - all good here. Hope you're well too, and alongside Enquest, Harbour is my only other UK oil play. I'm not sure if you've invested any here, but if you have a 6 to 12 months horizon, I expect this to be a lot higher. Oil is structurally in an undersupplied state and there's not enough investment globally to take care of the upcoming increase in demand over the next few years. 60p party there and maybe a 8 quid party here - in 2022/23. ;-). Russian oil will still continue to be wound down, albeit slowly by EU importers. Lithuania has led that trend with zero imports already and spot liftings from the sea exports from Russia aren't all as hot as they used to be. Self-sanctioning is in vogue I suppose.

It's not just Buffett that's investing in anger at these levels - with the Ukraine war taking ESG concerns to the background, European buyside funds should be hitching on to this trend too. Most of the points that the oilprice article that Pearls posted a link to, are relevant to UK producers and many UK buyside will drop their opposition to oil stocks purchases, IMO.

That's the final push needed to get these to take off, IMO.

GL..

Jan - don't waste time trying to reason with these 2 David Icke acolytes. One can't even spell Yield and thinks he's an authority on global stock movements. And the other is a knowledgeable conspiracy monger. Both think they're the only ones on the know and the rest are mindless government kow-towers. Ask them to give them financial stats of a company whose board they torment with their inane conspiracies, you get zilch. Ignore them and let's focus on why we're here on these boards - make money.

Hi L7,

I should've been more clear and you're right on that count - I meant 'get rid of the RBL balance ouutstanding' - not get rid of the facility. And as you observed, once the HYB is refinanced, the RBL duration can be extended out to June 2028 - it's currently set to close in June 2023. Could they paydown the HYB with RBL (post pay down to zero) + Cash on hand - I suppose they could closer to the end of the year. What's likelier, IMO, is that they refi the HYB to a smaller amount with cash on hand and maybe some RBL drawdown, increase the RBL duration to 2028 and work off that. Refinancing the HYB is the key to unlock this RBL duration extension.

We know there's an automatic sweep of cash balances (unencumbered) above $75 mill that goes to paying down the RBL on a quarterly basis, but we're overpaying that amortisation schedule at this time. And to your point, once the RBL is extended, the covenants around hedging could possibly be renegotiated. We'll see what happens on the 20th April.

Hello L7,

Your assessment makes sense to me and I suspect that this is the route that Enquest will take to pay down their RBL. Your $132 mill X 2 over the next 4 months (from March) shouldn't be too far off, given the real oil price jump happened at the end of February and dated Brent for March was well above the front-month futures level. If the Front month stays around the 100 level, then rest assured Enquest will be selling for higher prices on the spot (dated brent) market.

Get rid of the RBL and net debt will be below a billion, and that should make the HYB refinance a breeze - in fact, a favourable refinance should happen even without a full RBL paydown by the end of H1 this year. Getting the RBL out of the way will remove quite a few covenants and so would the HYB refinance from a position of strength.

A 200 bps increase on the new RB coupon - I'm not sure why that's such a big deal as some on here are making it out to be. It's still a callable bond and if enough cash builds up on the balance sheet, I'd think it gets called sooner than later, plus it gives them an easy option to wind down the RBL quickly. I doubt they'd use the RBL to pay down the HYB - that'll be a refi, IMO.

GLA..

It looks Russia is trying to save face and talking peace with Ukraine now. Whichever way you look at it, they bloody lost and that's good for the world going forwards. We can only be sorry for the thousands who have died in that idiot's war.

Let's not forget that oil fundamentals are still healthy and this current fall is welcome, IMO. The world can grind back to normalcy and with it, oil fundamentals should shine through. Lowest OECD stocks in years, low Cushing stocks, spring/summer demand incoming - oil has tasted 100 bucks and should linger around these levels for a while. I'd welcome Brent between $80 to $110 range - anything more isn't good from a consumption viewpoint.

Enquest has been remarkably strong even in the face of a 15 bucks brent drop. The update was well received and the market has started to value this a bit more in line with fundamentals. Long may this continue.

GL all..

Russia's all but acknowledged they're losing and trying to save face now - pull back of operations in Kyiv and Chernihiv was 'agreed'. Oil may pull back a bit more, but given that demand is still robust, OECD stocks at multi-year lows, Cushing stocks are still scraping the bottom of their storage capacity and if the Ukraine war situation is resolved, oil will continue to move up going into spring/summer. We'll see if HBR's price keeps up with Brent like the US/Canadian producers (and even Enquest these past couple of weeks) do, but it'll be good to see a positive correlation.

It's 8p for each half-year going forwards, unless they ramp that up in the near future from any windfall profits. 8p = circa 11 cents

"My understanding is that Net debt at 24/3 was 1,004,7 at 24/3 according to report yesterday (See below") ". No, that isn't right. It just means that they have repaid $85 mill and built an additional cash on hand of $47 mill - for a total net debt reduction of $132 mill in Jan/Feb 2022.

Enquest has had a great run from 23 to 32P in a matter of days and so is it a surprise that it's falling today - this fall is welcome IMO. Stay on script chaps - don't let KO's instant gratification influence your investment thesis. ;-)