Member Info for epiphany121

The current European vaccine faux paus and the incoming 3rd wave was only too obvious for most to see, but thankfully we're at the fag end of the virus season and their vaccinations will pick up in the coming weeks. We're doing a great job and so is the US, and their air and road travel is trending up strongly. 1.4 mill + TSA flagged passengers on Thursday and likely above 1.5 mill yesterday when the figures break in about 3 hours - all post to a strong air recovery in the coming months. I wasn't hoping for 70 bucks Brent till May and glad that Brent touched the 70 handle this May, but also not shocked by the sell-off on Thursday. I'll take a $60 to 70 range for te next 6 weeks through start of May, which is when an upside breakout should occur, IMO - if that happens sooner because of quicker US drawdowns and SA holding back production, that's fine by me.

I'm pretty sanguine about oil prices in the coming months and that'll show up in our profitability and FCF generation in the coming months. It'll be good to get updated numbers on THursday - costs/bbl, FCF generation/Hedges (if any)/further news on the OO/any other acquisitions.

There was a uniform sell-off in oil shares across the globe in the past 2 weeks and I'm not surprised by us taking a pause, even welcome it as we did have a good 100% run-up over just a few weeks. L3 touched on rising Rigs, but what he's not contemplating or factoring into his mystical spreadsheet is because of the shale well decline rates, you do need to keep drilling more wells just to keep production stable at the current high base level. 600 rigs is a alevel when you may start to see modest increases and we're some ways from there. In the meantime, global oil inventories will continue to be whittled down in time for a late spring summer 'mini-explosion' in oil demand, calling on more OPEC oil to be brought back on.

Stay safe and waiting eagerly for Thursday.

I have a few good mates working here in the sales functions and have a holding here. I can't see what's not to like about today's results.
1. Net debt didn't trend back up to the end FY 19 levels of £1350 mill as predicted in the H1 2020 report back in September, in fact it went down from the H1 2020 levels, without the ESS sale cashflow impact
2. £200 mill cash inflow from sale of the Axelos, Secure Software and Specialist Insurance divisions
3. Organic revenue growth expected in 2021
4. Additional debt paydown in 2021 - circa £210 mill notes in 2021 and £230 mill in 2022 (including RCF)
5. Most importantly, CPI is tied heavily to the re-opening of the economy. Give the UK a circa 8% GDP growth in 2020, and CPI will beat revenue numbers and may net more from disposals too.

This will be a bumper 2021/22 for CPI, and the shares.

GL

Hey MO,

Its good to hear from you and you've certainly been offline for longer than I was during the doldrums last year - Covid et all counting. The winds have shifted and I'm the most optimistic I've been in oil sector investing than I've ever been in the last 4 years. The patient among us will be duly rewarded.

Stay safe and how drop us a line with your investment outlook...And I'm looking forward to being out on the range when the lockdown ends in a couple of weeks. ;-)

However smart you and I may think Berman is, this looks like lazy analysis to me. It'll be an extra bullish factor if US production does drop off a cliff like Berman shows it would in that graph, but the reality will be far different.

I'd take Mark Rossano's POV based on Frac spreads working the DUCs as more reality based than on Berman's view based on rig counts alone. Read through to the bottom of the thread.

https://twitter.com/AgAuCH4/status/1370661485488308225

US production will probably hang around these levels at an average of closer to 11 mmbbls/day in 2021.

After a touch of sleuthing, here's what I found from Gkb's posting history literally 2 weeks ago. Now I'm beginning to understand what that 55 on his beer glass signifies. I don't know about you, but I can't see a reference to a Brent 55 to 65 range in that post from 18/02. Talk about moving goalposts when you know you're losing bad. Maybe spending even half of the time spent tracking Pelle's Dividend calls and useless penalties, on actually tracking oil prices impacting factors (currently highly bullish) would be good for someone who's supposedly a shareholder in an oil company and one whose new strategy is now bewildering and meaningless to him. Sure, I get it.

"gkb47
Posted in: ENQ
Posts: 10,578
Price: 17.50
No Opinion
RE: Operations Update Reprised18 Feb 2021 15:33
Hello Jan, Yes 60k is what I'm working to but might tweak it down a bit now in the light of those Forties impacts. Also currently using $55 average price for PoO, don't think it will hold at this level through 2021 unless it kicks off in the Gulf, always a possibility. Otherwise KSA can turn the taps up pretty quickly and other Opec and the Ruskies always cheat anyway, Chinese skirt the sanctions and Yanks have their DUCs. Plenty of scope to increase supply. "

Moving on, Stimulus incoming next week as the US House takes up the $1.9 Trillion stimulus bill that passed the senate yesterday. The bill should be signed into law in the coming days and provide an additional filip to asset prices. The next thing on the Biden agenda - infrastructure bill and yet more spending therein are addtional bullish factors which will invariably push up commodity in the coming quarters. I'll take a slow and steady climb towards my $75.5 average and will gladly endorse Pelle's average should circumstances turn out to be even more bullish in the coming months. The lucky stars are aligning very well for us in 2021.

GL

Hello H - I can't see why the $301 mill Oil and Gas assets impairment (out of the $409 mill total impairment) done in H1 2020 because of lower oil price expectations ($40 in 2020, $47 in 2021, $60 from 2022 onwards (with 2% annual indexed increase thereafter) can't be written if the price outlook changes substantially. I'm not sure if any impairment would be written back in the 2020 H2/FY results, but I'd certainly see one incoming in the H1 2021 results.

Blimey, mummy didn't give you milk this evening, GKB? Right - back to adult conversations with serious investors on this board.

...and R, did you miss my good friend L3 sitting on the same table next to GKB? Both of them had their beer glasses filled up - one had the number 55 on their glass and the other had 60 on their's. They looked glum as hell staring at those glasses and however hard I tried, I still couldn't quite figure out the significance of those numbers.

Maybe its best that I don't spend time figuring those numbers out as I need to focus on global economic growth, large scale stimulus and the resulting M2 money supply and how those impact Brent prices (positively as we're now seeing) and the Enquest SP in return. That is sure to leave me anyway, feeling a lot chirpier.

Correct. And it's circa 1.2 billion for another company at a 40% UK tax for the O&G sector.

Next year, P?

Bollinger reigns, even...

Morning Jan - are you now ready to hand over the Bollinger reign to either Pelle or I? ;-)

It's whatever my super realistic friend L3 says it is - if he says 60p, then the answer, incontrovertibly, must be 60p.

Agreed P - an upmove backed by Industry cycle fundamentals (Demand + Pricing) means that we're only just about catching up to the higher value that should've been assigned to Enquest a few months ago. I'm not saying that Enq will move up in a straight line to 30p from here - but every small move is welcome.

Who can now bet against $70 oil in Q1 - that's quite easily possible. I trust that they didn't do an aditional silly upside limiting hedge - barring that, it's all systems go.

We can't necessarily compare ourselves to Viking ships and their asset sale that led to this big dividend, but we can certainly hope for a great finish to the Exxon assets deal in MY.

Hang in there LTHs..

Did even my good trader mate MRC also get on the wrong end of the trade? His posts suggest so ... Market timing is almost always never easy or good.. ;-)

P - this is what being left behind looks like for some of the 'nimble' traders no doubt. Business cycle, business cycle (plus an OPEC nudge) = oil highs incoming = higher SP incoming...that should be the mantra. GL to the longs

Yeah baby. Now, India won't be happy, but we are and that's all that matters. ;-) Onwards and upwards

Precisely my call too, Jan. Even if the news flow turns out a bit more negative such as a full 1mmbbl/day SA restore, it will be a knee-jerk reaction lower and I see oil recover the last days' lost ground in the coming days/weeks. Patience is key.

P - great post below - couldn't have put it too much better.

"Ok, I traded some Enq during last year. I gain some but also some fun activity.
Now I am more like sheriff in Nottingham protecting my gold. Lol.
Looks very dangerous try trade now in early upward cycle."

I'm sure some if not many people on here think they can time their buys and sells to the tee, and keep making money. I suppose one could get very lucky and time their sells and re-buys well, but it's tempting fate. People on here announcing their sells - good on them for making money on swings, but this is oil now in a major bull market and a SP can quickly run away from your sell price, if you did sell to get in at a lower price. For trying to gain a few % points, it is a risky strategy fo rme anyway. If oil's rangebound, I'll wholeheartedly recommend it - not at this stage in the business cycle though.

Take Dodger16 - he/she had a good trade made 40% profit and sold at 17.5p and now it's got away from that price point. He hasn't since posted re-entry or otherwise, but this is what can happen when you think you can time the trade. The 3p change from then to now isn't a big move granted, but if oil takes off, the upmoves can be violent and you can be really left behind. This is why I'd rather I have a core holding and let that run, and maybe a smaller trading position to flip in/out if you feel compelled to trade. ;-) But hey, no doubt everyone knows what they're doing.

GL

The crude build the last week is just noise given that the majority of refineries in TX/LS were shut down after the polar vortex weather incident a couple of weeks ago. You'll see large draws in the next few weeks as they come back online and start processing more crude in the coming weeks. $70 soon is still incoming - how quickly this could happen depends on what OPEC+ does tomorrow.