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60bn new shares issued at 5p today is not a worst case scenario, its actually the best case scenario right now, and i doubt there is anyone willing to expend 3 billion on sirius shares.
That 2bn profit in 9 years is also a best case scenario, and its ignoring all the risk that would be present from here on out.
Why would anyone invest now in a company that might pay 5% of current price dividend in 9 years if the stars align, with a very high chance of bankruptcy, when you could start earning 6% of a much safer share right now like shell, i think current price its way overvalued.
With the current market cap the company cannot hold ftse250 status, a lot of the holdings from funds on this share are from passive funds that track the ftse250.
They had no choice in holding the share, thats why they are passive, now that that the company is going out of the index, they also have no choice but to sell out all holdings.
Once the buying pressure from short closing out stops, the usual dead cat bounce from overly optimistic private shareholders is over, and the funds start closing, i see this going down with no support, there simply wont be enough buy volume to cover the institutional investors selling.
This is not looking good.
Hello, just wanted to share some toughs here,
I, as many others here has lost a lot of money on this share, and i have held during rough times.
But today, i had no option but to sell, there is no upside from here.
A lot of people here are contemplating that we need to raise 500m, but that is just not the case, we needed 500m to unlock the 400m bonds in scrow, and the 2.5 billion RCF.
With that now cancelled, we now need to raise more than 3 billion on a 300million market cap and with no bond market or government backing, i dont see a way out of this that doesn't completely wipe/dilute current shareholders out.
Even an optimist 5p placing would need to raise more than 60 billion new shares.
Stopping/slowing down a project is not a cost saver, losing the momentum the build had is going to increase the total cost of building the mine by a lot, and the company its going to have to let go a lot of the qualified workforce in the next 6 months.
Based on my calculations, the best case scenario now points at £0.12 share price on 2024-2025, assuming a 10 and thats assuming that there is interest for a 3 billion open offer, which is doubtful.
The most likely scenario now is a takeover, and is probably the best outcome for current shareholders if it comes to a 10-20% premium over current market-cap.
21-Aug-19 14:30:33 9.48 1,000,000 Buy* 9.355 9.44 94.80k O
Seems like he did, hope it works out for you!
Around 0.3p considering we have 7 billions shares currently.
But not that it matters that much, since even if we are able to get any money from it, it would be dripping slowly over the many months/years remaining until tunnel its finished.
It would make sense to give it as a dividend with so much outstanding debt at that point.
It would be a nice little bonus revenue before production if the company is able to sell the bonds and not die out next month.
Sorry, i got the wrong final diameter data ( it has changed several times in the life of the project)
Assuming 6 meters diameter, that gives 22m£ in mudstone
So i did some quick calculations;
Assuming most of the Strabag tunnel is going to be redcard mudstone all the way( which everything seems to point out that it is)
With a diameter of 3.7m and a length of 37km, that is around 641,580 m3 of raw material.
Mudstone has an average density of 2.2 tonnes per m3, so that equals 1,283,160 tonnes in total, not counting vertical shafts.
If your estimate of 10£ a ton is correct, that represents around 12m £, which would be a nice cost saver if realised. Considering that disposing of the material in itself has to be costly to Sirius.
Lets be honest here, most of us here are doing nothing for the benefit of the project, the real work is being done by those on the fields and those working on the direction of Sirius.
Most people here are only keyboard warriors and the little amount they have invested in Sirius doesn't really affect the company it in any meaningful way.
Indeed the great number of shares being in new hands for 15p means that there is gonna be a big resistance to go up in the next year, because those wanting to make a quick profit will sell at the smallest rise.
If you are a long term holder, and by that i mean until the project is finished, it shouldn't really matter that the shares are artificially low now because of the sell pressure of new holders, in fact i would consider it a good thing if you want to keep increasing your holding, as it presents a good buy opportunity.
In my mind having more money come from equity means less debt, and more security for the company. There will be time to do share buybacks when the company is cash flow positive.
Having huge amounts of debt before even producing 1 cent is risky on itself, you might get into the situation where you barely make enough revenue to pay interest on debt, or the project is delayed and the debt pile becomes unbearable.
Because this things are really slow, 17m per day last i heard, so if you wanted to make the whole 37km with only one machine, that would take around 6 years, by using 3 machines, that is taken down to 2 years (2021)
I dont know about you, but i think its a good sacrifice.
Its going to be more difficult to go up now with so many shares in the markets ready to be sold at the slightest uptick.
A lot of short term cash grabbers bough in the run up for st2 finance waiting to double their money, they didn't want their money stuck here, as soon as the price goes back up to 20-22p, they will sell, so there will be a resistance there for a long time.
Not mentioning the convertible bonds and all the new shares that have been bough at 15p, and will be happily returned at 20-22p for almost a 50% profit.
It will take a long while for new shares to find a long term home before price can raise again.
Its simple, a lot more shares on the market now, the market cap is a lot bigger than it used to be, but is hard to finance a project in such a long timescale without generating any income in the main time. Its a 5b mine, everyone that is putting the money will want their piece of the cake.
Leverage my friend.
Yes, in 10 years if everything goes perfectly, at 20mtpa, i still think this is a good long term investment, but far from risk free.
You can buy the open offer shares and store them outside an isa/sipp, even if you have the shares inside one, at least in HL
I had my shares before yesterday, im talking about whats stopping me to request 100k shares at 15p on the open offer, and selling them the day i get them for 1 or 2 cents more each one.
So whats stopping me to pick up 100k shares and flipping them up for 1 or 2 cents profit each?
Does this mean that sirius could accept as much new shares at 15p as it desires and the prorated entitlement is only a minimum?
Anyone knows what the take more than the full entitlement option entails? I seem to be able to buy as many shares as i want at 15p
Even in 10 years thats still an insane yearly return. 20p to 1£ is 500%