RE: What’s it worth?17 Jan 2026 12:54
From Phil over on ADVFN.
This explains his rationale for the possible OXB pricing. Make your own mind up guys. I like Phil he is quite smart. So I am sure is Shatter.
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"...I think the disconnect here is what the reference point is.
7× sounds like a big multiple if you anchor it to today’s share price. But that isn’t how buyers look at it.
A strategic or PE buyer anchors to forward, de-risked revenue, not the last traded price. By April we’ll likely have visibility on:
• £220–240m for 2026
• £300m+ for 2027 before any BLA upside.
On that basis, 6–7× forward sales isn’t aggressive at all for a scarce, profitable viral-vector CDMO with global assets and locked-in growth. It’s broadly in line with where quality assets clear once risk is removed.
So £18 doesn’t need a “heroic” takeover premium. It’s roughly:
• the forward value pulled forward to today,
• with time and execution risk removed,
• and without assuming a bidding war.
If the business can organically re-rate into the mid-teens over 12–18 months anyway, then a buyer paying high-teens now isn’t overpaying — they’re just accelerating value.
Completely fair to be cautious — I’m not saying it must happen — just that the number itself isn’t as extreme as it looks when framed off the wrong anchor."
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Now back to Shatter for his argument and pricing. May the best guess (argument) win.
We are in exciting times. Elric