RE: Timeline20 Nov 2022 21:05
Hi F79,
I think the terms will change because it seems unlikely that the licence areas will be the same as shareholders envisaged in May. The Afrimin licence doesn't appear to be under ARC's control, the North Zaco licence appears to be a bidding area and there is a general requirement for 50% of a licence area to be relinquished on renewal ( not necessarily strictly enforced). Zambia want inward investment but also, understandably, want to ensure Zambia benefits. My understanding of a designated bidding area is that the funds would go straight to Zambia.
I would estimate that a $74m investment would probably equate to somewhere in the order of 100,000m of drilling (allowing for surveys, geological support and any JV overheads).
Assuming that AA find a tier 1 asset of over 3m tonnes of copper then I think that a valuation of the complete asset would probably be in the range of $400m to $900m. ARCs share of the asset is likely to be less than 30% (allowing for Kopara). I think to get to a £5bn asset would to require a developed mine, which would take more than $74m of expenditure. There is obviously no guarantee of a tier 1 asset. The SP increase, based on no dilution, is obviously limited by the value that $74m can add to the asset.