It’s FXPOs continuing obligation under LR9 to publish. What they need to publish is under DTR4.
If they fail, then then the circumstances the FCA will suspend are in LR5, specifically LR5.1.2(2)
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/LR/5/?view=chapter
I see there is a production report due beforehand so perhaps they will update the market with their intentions for FY results at that time.
Fxpo seems to be leaving publication final results very late which I thought are due 4 months after year end at the latest. It looks like it has got two weeks from today to get them out or would appear to face suspension by the fca listing rules. What are the chances it will succeed in doing so?
When politicians tell the O&G sector to “read the room” regarding the windfall tax, they only need to point to Twitter to gauge the overwhelming public support for it.
The green lobby have completely highjacked the platform even though their arguments show a complete lack of understanding of the difference between a subsidy and tax relief or the fact that the majors international profits are not made in the North Sea. There is absolutely no resistance to these sorts of posts, no counter argument, no sense of reason.
O&G investors need to start to try and produce a counter argument beyond these investment boards! We only have ourselves to blame if there is no counter voice. If you have time to post on these boards then you have time to throw a few rocks on Twitter at the green lobby.
Stoprosebank today have posted:
Harbour Energy, the biggest oil & gas producer in the UK, has generated $1 billion in cash.
Instead of investing in a fast and fair transition, they've laid off workers and paid hundreds of millions to shareholders.
Energy giants are not on our side.
They're in it for profits.
StopRosebank are now targeting Harbour on Twitter posting their green garbage to an echo chamber of clapping seals. There is absolutely no resistance to these sorts of posts, no counter argument, no sense of reason. Twitter is awash with support of labours proper windfall tax and hardly anyone is pointing out the damage it will do. Harbour investors need to start to try and produce a counter argument beyond these investment boards! This is what Stoprosebank have posted:
Harbour Energy, the biggest oil & gas producer in the UK, has generated $1 billion in cash.
Instead of investing in a fast and fair transition, they've laid off workers and paid hundreds of millions to shareholders.
Energy giants are not on our side. They're in it for profits.
So what we are saying is that WD need to get better prices for their gas in South America and Middle East. Is there a reason why prices are so weak in these areas and what’s stopping gas extracted in these areas being shipped to better priced markets?
I too got to a 750p valuation which seemed fairly straightforward looking at the headline numbers . But if stevo is right that figure needs to be divided by 3 which would explain why the shareprice is at 250p. It would suggest the deal is already priced in and what we are in fact looking at is a nil premium merger. What I havnt quite got my head round is why WD holders accepted a 360p valuation which would mean they took an immediate circa 100p per share haircut.
Does that suggest that they know that there is something else in the pipeline to close that gap or do they have better confidence in HBr management to improve the company’s performance beyond what they were able to achieve?
“Accordingly I am struggling to understand why Linda has agreed to value the WD business at 3 times the value of Harbour. ”
It’s very interesting analysis but the comparison is between just two companies relative to each other. Is it a case that one may overvalued or one may be undervalued depending on how you look at it?
Maybe if the analysis introduced a “control” into the experiment or a benchmark against another company then you could compare both HBR and WD against that company to see the relative valuations?
Just a thought and beyond my abilities to do!
Slim has also increased his holding in Talos to 22%. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he pushes for it to be merged into HBR next year after the WD transaction completes
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mexican-tycoon-slim-expresses-interest-growing-stake-talos-oil-projects-2024-02-12/
The Scots and the unions are furious with labours windfall tax plans. Unite threatening strike action already. My guess is Labour will back down and do another Uturn.
The tories might even see sense and scrap the epl before the election which would throw the other parties energy policies into chaos. SNP and Labour would then have to try and justify reintroducing it when gas is at 56p/therm.
HBR warned they would be cancelling U.K. projects due to uncertainty with a potential labour gov. The drop in forecasted production is the inevitable result and should have been expected. This update is a confident middle finger to U.K. gov and focus should be on the Wintershall deal going forward. Quite surprised there is no info on that as I had thought once a reverse takeover had been announced any reporting had to be as if the transaction had already taken place.
I see no reason at all for the transaction not to go ahead.
Seems to be some confusion about the divi. This article saying it’s an 80% increase
https://www.investomania.co.uk/harbour-energy-to-buy-majority-of-wintershall-assets-shares-soar/
Hbr saying it’s just a 5% increase.
BASF will almost certainly sell their shares at the end of the lock ups. That gives newHBR a 6month window to mop up talos and secure a US listing in 2025 to absorb the shares
I read it as there will be 770m Hbr shares plus 921m issued making new issued share cap of 1679m. New co worth somewhere around £12bn making a theoretical share price around 700p?
Very complicated reverse takeover but looks like current Hbr shareholders will own 45% of newco which will be worth around $13bn - so surely Hbr shares should be double where we are at the moment? Market will need time to digest and for a rerate
How would a merger with ENQ massively benefit HBR? I am full aware of the potential to monetise ENQ tax losses but do you know how they might be applied across the newco? It’s far from clear that they could. If they can’t, then there is little or no case for a transaction with EnQ just to get saddled with their debt.
Interesting times for HBR and a deal in Mexico is looking a strong possibility. ENQ is at best treading water and at worst has already started drowning. Debt is too high and the EPL has made it far more difficult to pay it off. Shares look expensive at 12p. Their tax losses would be useful to HBR so a tie up may make sense but HBR can afford to wait. I would expect a paper deal for ENQ shareholders so they could benefit in any uplift in the newco but can’t see a deal being done until ENQ shares are in single figures.
Meanwhile looking forward to results from drilling in Indonesia.
Thanks. I guess it depends on how the company views the dividend payments. I thought it had allocated 200m for dividends per year and with less shares in circulation that would mean that each share received a larger slice of the 200m. However perhaps they are keeping the dividend per share constant pence wise and instead are just saving on the 200m? They may have allocated 200m but that doesn’t necessarily mean that this is the amount to be distributed, even if I read it that way.
There are no nomads on the main market - corporate brokers are used instead.
The rules stipulate that inside information must be posted on a RNS. The fact that there isn’t one means this new well is not material and does not need an announcement via RNS. However that doesn’t mean that the IR dept can’t release a press release which would seem appropriate
I have received my divi and it’s more or less the same the same as before. Given the reduction in the share capital from the buy back, I was expecting an increase. Am slightly disappointed and wondered if I had got my maths wrong.