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I think that the flaw in your argument is that you assume that the risks will change in the way you outlined but premiums will remain the same. If the claims statistics reveal a significant change towards the scenarios you have outlined then insurers will adjust premiums higher in accordance with the changes in risk. ADM is an extremely well run & innovative company but its SP has been overvalued for the last year or two. IMO the fall back is just a overdue correction that brings it into line with the company's fair value.
Agreed. The SP looks below the long-term trend line for ADM. It's a well managed company & the drop looks overdone to me. I've been topping up on the falls.
I agree with you. The SP was also pumped up by the recent tech bubble that is now deflating. I think that SMT it is a good long-term bet & its price is now close to a reasonable entry point. I've been buying on the drip as the SP falls.
IMO DGE is still overpriced. I won't be buying until the SP falls to below £32 which can't be far off now.
Depends how big the profit is. if it's large i don't mind waiting 2 years.
The company is profitable but the shares were seriously overvalued. I think that they are pretty close to the bottom now & have been topping up at the current SP.
I agree that the SP is likely to fall further. SGE has been above trend for a few years & that has been unwinding. IMO the current SP only looks cheap because it was overpriced before. Another factor inn SGE's short/medium -term outlook is that a lot of its customers are likely to go out of business during this recession & that is going to hit the company's bottom line. I think SGE is a good long-term play & am buying on the drip while prices are falling.
I agree it will drop but not that much. I've got limit buys down to under 530p.
Absolutely. That's my approach too. It's not easy to see where the bottom is yet. I think the SP could go a bit lower before it recovers. Definitely worth buying for the long term though.
I think you are in the right ballpark but it could go quite a bit lower yet. IMO SGE has been overvalued for the last few years so it would probably be a mistake to assume that the current price is at bargain basement levels. . I've seen SGE's fair value put at around £5.60 elsewhere which I think is in line with its long-term trend line. I'm buying on the drip because I think there is a risk of going in too heavily too early. I've done it before.
I also think that one of the reasons the the price has been hit is because investors are now switching out of tech into more obvious & and potentially more lucrative recovery plays now that an end to the pandemic is in sight.
IMO the fall in SP has nothing to do with uncertainties about new nuclear plants because there is no requirement for robotic manipulators for plants that have not seen active use. They are only required for active facilities where radiation levels make it hazardous for human operators. If the CarrsMSM manipulator business is going through a bad patch. it must be because of cut-backs at Sellafield, the decommissioning of old power stations or the work needed to keep operating plants running. Perhaps it is the early retirement of Hunterston B that has had an impact on the business? Whatever it is, I think Carr's is a good business & have been topping up my holding now that the SP has dropped to an attractive level.