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May 31 (Reuters) - Kazakhstan's government and the trio of founders behind ENRC have asked the miner's independent board members for an extension to a buyout bid deadline of June 3, seeking more time to iron out technical details, sources with knowledge of the matter said.
Hi bunker, I'm one expert in any way shape or form. What will be will be. But isn't as simple as Enrc being part of many proactive mining tracking funds? When you look at Industial metals and mi ing ENRC is not the worst off by far. There have been no rumours and the sell off this afternoon was gradual and correlated with the FTSE last hour dip, which was largely driven by miners. The truth is apart from the shorters the big boys couldn't give a flying toss about a single share like ENRC, it's business as usual for them. As soon as word comes they will be first in to benifit off todays SP off the back of an announcment IMO.
A few points... - Mining sector took a nose dive in the last hour (down over 4%) every mining chart looks the same. - pre bid shake out (shorts closing and nervous retail investors) - and finally don't panic if the bid doesn't go through (short term hit for sure but this share just follows the mining sector trend as at has done for the past year and will continue to do so when mining picks up)
Do we reckon there will be an RNS tomorrow? or at the very least some leakage before the weekend. No doubt the Sunday rags will be full of speculation as usual...
In the blue today despite the market being down! A result of the chairman position or a little bit of leaky leaky... ?
Any views on which way he is leaning in terms of the bid?
All this fuss over ENRC. The whole sector is down by nearly half in the last 6 months... In some ways it would be better for long term holders if the sale didn't go through. This would be back up to 5 squid by December once the global outlook begins to improve. The world needs metal :-) .... I'd rather way a year for £4-£6 than have £3 now... :-) IMO
Any thoughts?
The trio of billionaires hoping to take scandal-hit miner ENRC private could be forced to raise their indicative offer amid intervention from the Kazakh government. Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2331813/Trio-billionaires-raise-ENRC-offer.html#ixzz2UZ2PgM88 Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Enter Mr Kerimov.... article just published on FT High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/516b44ba-c48c-11e2-bc94-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2UUiLIzgr Mr Kerimov is a savvy financial investor who brings solid relationships with the Russian banking establishment to the table, and several Moscow bankers who have worked with him speculate he either bought the stake because he thinks he can be bought out at a profit, or because he is doing someone a large favour, or – even more likely – both. In fact, Mr Kerimov appears to have positioned himself as a shareholder activist in the deal, and is understood to have communicated in writing to UK regulators that his interests are aligned with minorities in seeking a higher buyout offer from ENRC. People familiar with the situation say he is pushing for an offer of 400p in cash, much higher than a lowball offer equivalent to 260p which was rejected by minority shareholders on May 17.
So it's probably a certainty now. At a very very minimum 2.60 but given the independents are pushing back for the other 25% of shareholders, the consortium must surely come back with a minimum of an extra 10% to get this through with ease. Taking it to at lease 2.80. That is if this article is credible. I still feel personally you are looking at at least 3.00 so as not to create a backlash. This article is very badly written - Kaz are reportedly happy with the terms (e.g. The structure). The were not happy with the SP or the valuation.
I fully agree, I actually think there was a lot of profit taking Thursday/Friday. The ENRC drop exactly correlated with the biggest trading volume shorting shares. Anyway an article from the 21st summarises a broker consensus post the first bid rebuff. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, twelve have issued a hold rating and six have given a buy rating to the company. Eurasian Natural Resources Cor presently has a consensus rating of Hold and an average price target of GBX 380.21 ($5.84).
This is more interesting than it might initially appear. The company SP is trading at half it's value. Corporate governance issues have essentially more than halved the SP. This Mohesen guy genuinely seams to be fighting the corner of the small shareholders. I just can't see the consortium going in with less than 3.00 GBP as this guy I don't think would want to have egg on his face or compromise his reputation. At the end of the day it's all down to Kaz I suppose - but again given their share is valued at 3.75 I can't see them taking less than 3.00 either. If the consortium go back with say 2.80/2.90 they will be taking a huge risk for the sake of circa 20p.
ENRC calls for valuation as braces for bid The chairman of ENRC’s independent committee has asked its advisers to individually assess the value of the troubled mining giant ahead of an expected second bid from a consortium led by the company’s founders.Mohsen Khalil, the former World Bank director who chairs the seven-strong committee, has instructed bankers Lazard and Credit Suisse to work separately on the project. It is understood he has asked them to develop valuations based on a number of variables, including competitors, its intrinsic value, its economic value were it to be sold, and a sum-of-the-parts model. The aim is to help the committee, made up of fellow independent board members including Richard Borrows and company chairman Gerhard Ammann, establish the value ahead of a second approach.
No idea and don't take my comment as advice - just my novice opinion :-)
Hey there Samunj - it would appear there is short term certainty that ENRC will go for around 3.00, hence the quick snap back up to 265. ENRC will stay at 265 and creep slowly towards 280 by mid next week i reckon. Kaz on the other hand looks like they will have to write a chunk of their balance sheet short term. Having said that in the mid term Kaz I think will be far the stronger of the 2 - heading towards 450 based on some good summer production and freedom from ENRC corporate governance shenanigans (just my view)
Price still rising... You think those in the know are getting wind of something? An earlier than anticipated offer maybe? And Kaz down 6% as we speak... What do we make of this?
I do hope you are right that would be cool... I think the deal has probably already been done behind closed doors. It's just a question of the consortium raising the finance now. Fingers crossed for everybody with holdings. What would be cool is another party declaring an intention to offer - then we would be looking at 4.50+
Hi Bunker, I think simply, if Kaz agrees to what ever is proposed then that takes it to nearly 75% of shareholder consensus) If that is the case they can de-list and you can either take what is offered (most people thinking now between 3.00 and 3.20) or stay a shareholder but you would be unable to sell your shares. QueenElvis am I right? The good news is its defo going to be more than 2.80 but I agree laws of negotiation suggest a half way compromise between whats on the kaz balance sheet and the cheeky offer... A la 320 ish. I'm happy for this to play out now that we know the bottom... 260 and hence why every time the share price has dropped below this today - opportunists have piled back in. A nice little 14% on 260 with little downside risk some would perceive. Underneath all of this shinnanigins lies a very strong company - remember guys and girls the pressure is on the oligarchs now to play their hand.. This will be their only opportunity to get enrc on the cheap. Remember to that the SFO investigation is largely built into today's price. All my opinion of course.
Mix of shares and cash.... What do we think the revised offer will be? It has to be 3.00 + surely. I don't mind a mix of shares as once Khaz is clear of this mob they will be back upto 6.00 per share within a year.