Courtesy of Jasper13 - Not to be forgotten - Good Read1 Aug 2025 13:58
Jasper13
@Jasper13_01
#HAMA hypothetical suggestion.
Step 1: Raises £50m by way of CLN
• CLN Details: HAMA raises £50 million to purchase Bitcoin, with the CLN converting at 20p (£0.20) per share.
• Current Shares in Issue: 452.13 million.
• Current Share Price: 4.2p (£0.042).
• Current Market Cap: 452.13 million shares × £0.042 = £18.99 million.
• Bitcoin Price: $119,000 per BTC, with an exchange rate of £0.76/$.
• Bitcoin Purchase: The £50 million is used to buy Bitcoin at $119,000 per BTC.
Step 2: Calculate Bitcoin Purchased
Convert the £50 million to USD and determine the number of BTC purchased:
• Exchange rate: £1 = $1.316 (i.e., £0.76/$).
• £50 million in USD: £50,000,000 × 1.316 = $65,800,000.
• BTC purchased: $65,800,000 ÷ $119,000 ≈ 552.94 BTC.
Step 3: Calculate New Shares Issued from CLN
The CLN converts at 20p per share:
• Amount raised: £50,000,000.
• Conversion price: £0.20 per share.
• New shares issued: £50,000,000 ÷ £0.20 = 250,000,000 shares.
• Total shares post-conversion: 452.13 million + 250 million = 702.13 million shares.
Step 4: Recalculate mNAV with Bitcoin at $119,000
The mNAV per share is calculated by adding the value of the Bitcoin holdings (at $119,000 per BTC) to the existing assets and dividing by the total shares post-conversion.
• Existing Assets (Proxy): Market cap of £18.99 million.
• Bitcoin Value: 552.94 BTC × $119,000 × £0.76/$ = £49.98 million (slightly less than £50 million due to rounding and exchange rate precision).
• Total Assets Post-Bitcoin Purchase: £18.99 million + £49.98 million = £68.97 million.
• mNAV per Share: £68.97 million ÷ 702.13 million shares ≈ £0.09823 or 9.823p.
Step 5: Estimating Share Price Based on Bitcoin Treasury Peers
The potential share price depends on the mNAV (9.823p), market sentiment, and valuations of Bitcoin treasury peers like Smarter Web Company (SWC) and MicroStrategy. Peer dynamics show significant premiums over NAV due to Bitcoin enthusiasm.
Peer-Based Analysis
1. Smarter Web Company (SWC):
• Performance: Share price surged from 2.5p (April 2025 IPO) to £605 (July 7, 2025), a ~20,000% increase, with market cap reaching £1.1 billion despite Bitcoin holdings of £137.6 million (1,600 BTC at $117,963, July 16, 2025). This implies a ~8x premium over Bitcoin asset value.
• Application to HAMA: Starting from 4.2p, a 10–20x increase over the current price (less extreme than SWC) suggests 42p to 84p. Applying a 2–5x NAV premium yields 19.6p to 49.1p, reflecting HAMA’s larger share count (702.13 million vs. SWC’s smaller float) and LSE listing (less volatile than Aquis).
2. MicroStrategy (MSTR):
• Performance: Trades at a 2–3x premium to its Bitcoin holdings’ value, driven by investor confidence and Bitcoin rallies.
• Application: A 2–3x NAV premium for HAMA (9.823p) suggests 19.6p to 29.5p, co
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