Member Info for Early_Bird

Although I think that further fundraise will be required now prior to any production im a net buyer here at current levels. Its most likely a big ramp is coming on JORC and the raise will be off the back of this so I see an easy 50-100% profit by taking a position at current elvels. The strong links with Lundin of course could spring a nice surprise (T/O rumors I notice circulating) however im treating this as a very nice bonus if it ever comes to anything.

Fag Packet @ Current GP: At current Gold Price of $1335 OMI are forecast to produce a gross profit of 40,000 x (1335 - 975) = $14.4m = £11m Gross Profit. Now to get projected Net Profit at current GP we deduct overheads: Total Overheads for Full Year 2016 ending 31st May: Corporate and administrative expenses $2.15m Restructuring/Mine Development Costs $1.77m Loan repayments $1.12m Total: $5.04m Going forward if we extrapolate the same overheads (minus loan repayments as this will be paid off) we get overheads at $3.92m, round it to $4m = £3m pa NET profit = £11m - 3m = £8m pa. Versus: Current MC = £18m. Current Cash = £3m No debt Applying a conservative PE of 5 on forward basis to the projected £8m net profit gives fair value of £40m or 42p versus current price of 18.75p. That's all at current gold price, on current projections of 40k ounces production at AISC under $1000. We can be pretty comfortable at these projections given OMI has hit its targets time and time again, very reliable and well run company that has leaned up the business when gold price was on the floor so now is about to reap the benefits. Just for fun some are predicting gold price back at $1900 by year end. To give an idea of the leverage here this would mean Gross profit of (1900-975) x 40,000 = $37m pa. Deduct overheads of $4m gives Net Profit of $33m pa or £25m pa straight in to the bottom line. Apply conservative PE of 5 gives fair value £100m mc or 105p. over 500% upside from current levels. I notice some have asked about mine life, this is a very important aspect here. OMI has never had a mine life of more than 6 years yet it has been mining for over 19 years.... its strategy is to delineate resource as they go. They own a huge mineral resource of over 750k oz on current mineral resource however much is still largely un explored (as shown on slide 14 here) http://www.orosur.ca/files/2016-08-16-August-2016-Corporate-Presentation-FINAL.pdf So as one mine comes to an end they start preparing the next. Clearly enough for well over another 10 years in Uruguay alone from current known resources. Then they are also looking to roll out the same strategy in Colombia of which we are due to hear news on any time now from their exploration. OMI fully self funds its mine development and exploration, doesn't need to tap the market for money and is incredibly lean now and hugely profitable. Good to see the market waking up here, I was late to the party but still see significant upside.

Cant buy a bean now... they want over ask for aything more than 10k (£1800) Gold continues is journey northwards. Think a few now cottoning on to the serious value on offer here.

Tomorrow should be fun :)

Is rallying now as expected. Cannot see this below 20p for much longer.

Explained my reasons why I think that it will rally following Thurs as people always over hedge leading up to events like these which means following this Fed rate hike a natural rebound will occur. Historically gold price has actually peaked after a fed rate hike which goes against everything! to be honest even if hold goes to $1200 OMI is still looking cheap with the free cash flow its producing. A very comfortable buy and hold.

No sure charts dictate company fundamentals news in 4 weeks of Q1 results should dictate how SP performs. Gold is looking cheap and will almost certainly rally following Thurs imho. We shall see. Either way this is one of the cheapest miners on AIM atm. Very comfortable building a position here. More too add next week.

As Evil Knievel the well known stockmarket bear/shorter put a few weeks back: "Gentlemen, It's been a long wait but OMI is clearly on an upward run. I do not know what the share price should be pursuant to this morning's results announcement. But it should be a lot higher than 21p. Simon Cawkwell" Notice he has been buying here at 16.5p last week.

Thanks gotabesirius, indeed I was being conservative in my figures and the profit margin is likely to be as high as $350/oz with up to 10,000oz production gives up to $3.5m profit for Q1. Nice little video summary here by the CEO that I've just come across. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46b_mn7jAG4 Certainly EV of £13m here seems too low.

here I'm expecting to be very solid indeed. projected production for 2017 is between 35-40k oz at an all in sustaining cost of production of less than $1000. Gold price average for Q1 has been around $1320 so this equates to FCF of 9000oz x $300 margin of $2.7m dollars or £2.1m GBP for the quarter alone. Extrapolate that for this next year is free cashflow of £8.5m Projected net profit conservatively going forward (fag packet) take off £3.5m for admin fees ($2.2m in 2016) and further development costs (allow $3m conservatively) to get a projected net profit / cash build of £5m pa. Apply a PE of 10 gives fair value of £50m MC. Current MC £16m with net cash of £3m gives an EV of just £13m. Now they have leaned up the business reduced overheads and production costs & cleared debt this is shaping up very nicely in $1300 gold environment. Interesting to see which way the gold price will go following this next week, personally think Gold will rise whatever the outcome as people are over hedging before an event. Fed rate hike gold dip the past week has been an overreaction IMO. So I am currently building a position here in the lead up to Q1 results due within the next month. I think they will more than justify 30p+ (£29m MC) going forward in the current environment.

Point taken. So you a buyer or on sidelines?

equitrder - yes there is only one other company targeting a treatment for EB, Scioderm, that was bought out by Amicus last year for $842m as soon as they started their P3 studies. This drug requires daily application which means patients changing their dressings daily and in extreme cases can take up to 4 hours to change (to me seems totally impractical). Also their P3 trials have now been delyed / adjusted which is never a good sign. Amryts Episalvan only needs to be applied once every 3 or 4 days, P3 trials to start here in q1 2017. There are (I think) a few more drugs starting Phase 1 studies for treatment of EB however will be over 5-10 years behind where Amryt and Amicus are. To me the US patent shows they are already using their business nous to corner the market which will put them even higher up the list for any buyout offers coming in from the majors.

indeed so current cash is enough for the next 18-20 months going off 500k euros per month with10.6m in the bank. Certainly next 12 months is paid for and im expecting very strong traction within this period. Q1 2017 will be a very interesting period here imo.

I think we will have Imlan news next... guess is they are spreading it out to get some momentum going. Last proactive interview with JW a few months back he stated they have been in many active discussions regarding Imlan and that newsflow this year would be on this. Kev - Cathal mentions buyout in this presentation and that he doesnt expect Amyt to be around in 12 - 18 months time. Worth watching whole way through IMO. What separates Amyt from most small pharma is it already has P3 approved drug and that they are commercially driven. https://youtu.be/3xvETqoMrwQ

All add to the chances of buyout. Its the clear endgame strategy here. Expect this to be back over IPO price of 24p at the very least.

Grant of US patent for treatment of EB. BOD appear to know what they are doing, eh? :) cornering the market and making sure they have as much protection and exlusivity as poss. Also interims solid with 10.6m cash. Newsflow officially started, would guess the next will be on Imlan and how they are getting on with repositioning this product

Another Orphan drug company buyout today to add to the growing list http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/09/12/horizon-pharmas-pivot-continues-with-800-million-b.aspx

expecting a strong week here, Interims complete with footnote update on many fronts are due to land this week, hopefully we get a comprehensive update.

Worth checking out to those in to start-up pharma with huge upside potential... currently 20% cheaper than recent IPO. Already P3 approved drug for treating PTWs (burns).. P3 trials for treating EB due to commence Q1 2017 where the only other competitor targeting the same £1.5b market got bought for $842m as soon as it commenced its P3 trials.. Their trials have now been delayed. BOD include founder of Shire (one of worlds largest pharma companies), ex head of marketing of Shire's European wing, Sudocrem founder... all on the BOD. MC £40m https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xvETqoMrwQ&feature=youtu.be Apologies for O/T but certainly worth a look imo.

Thanks for sharing, very much looking forward to reading the footnotes / forward statements!! Why I see risk at these levels (£40m MC) incredibly low.... Watch between 16mins & 17mins https://youtu.be/3xvETqoMrwQ "Aim has 5 companies with an approved drug and we're one of them. The next nearest one has a market cap 20times higher. We're generating revenues and risk migration as of market cap today at £40m... we could sell our approved drug to any of the majors right now for substantially more than the current market cap, that is not out plan but that is why risk is low, we have an approved product that we could sell right now".