Member Info for Early_Bird

Strong buying today, full ask getting hammered. 12p falls and we're away....

hold these babies tight :)

Either way from these levels, IF AOOG can spud the well then I see the market cap here sitting at �35m on spud with relative ease especially given current oil climate, likely higher given the upside potential. From current levels you have x 3 bag nailed on upside IF spud Q1, even assuming a �1.5m placing at 12p say. Current market odds are pricing a 1 in 6 chance of the drill happening. For example If I put in �50k here then binary outcomes are: A - Drill Rig is Secured for Q1 spud: I make �150k profit by spud (assuming �35m mcap on spud) B - We get to Mid Feb and further delays: I see a 50% loss from current levels which equates to �25k on a �50k stake. (assumes likely MC �4m). To me seem like very good odds. �25k loss vs �150k profit. Thats my logic talking. However the hard bit to gauge is the Directors delivering. They are talking a good game still... unfortunately we need actions now. GLA

Great call in deramping GBP at 2p by the way... No helping some.

" their share to drill " being the important bit of that sentence.... SNCP are yet to pay aaog to date so what makes anyone think their drill payment will be any different? Placing will be needed if SNCP dont front their drilling cost. That IMO is a likely outcome. Either way if existing shareholders are the ones that get to particpate on the terms that rig is secured then they really are laughing. Many are not investing here as they beleive a placing is coming and will just sneak in through the back door.... Perfect storm if the funds are raised via open offer as all this city money waiting on the sidelines for a risk free entry to 300% gains would suddenly have to buy on open market. Fair is fair, in this instance there is only one correct method of further financing given how existing shareholders have been shafted to date and I for one am glad that David Sefton agrees.

Ive had it confirmed from David Sefton that IF AAOG do require to raise further funds prior to drilling TLP103 once rig date and licence extension have been achieved that it should be through Open Offer to existing shareholders rather than a private placement. Certainly the fairest method for raising funds here and would effectively lock many out that are banking on getting some through placement in the city.

We could be talking about a world class multibillion oil prospect been owned by an aim tiddler valued at less than �5m with �5m plus cash in the bank! Many bags to come here imo if that is the case with the tiny free float

yes its more of a punt but I think a raise is almost inevitable if even for working capital purposes post Farm in. May be at a premium once farm in is confirmed. Running on vapours at the moment so if discussions drag out thats a risk. PVR quite comfy here also Spanish point, and Total exercising their 35% option on Druid etc. LOGP yes has 3 or 4 bags further upside should stars align in their favour. I still get PVR having 5 bags upside nailed in on farm in (assuming 50% farm out and terms carried to production). For large sums of money I would put in to PVR hence its appeal to me, however LOGP appeals to the smaller PI for the greater reward perhaps

LOGP looking strong. PVR have �35m cash, dont need to raise to drill Barryroe appraisal and side track and own 80% of Barryroe. EV here currently is �30m for 80% of Barryroe. LOGP will 100% need to raise capital next to no cash and hold 20%. On a cost per % basis similar however to me PVR the much safer at at the moment. GLA

Time to be buying is now whilst its quiet. Sitting at cash levels with big big upside CPR due imminently.

Key statements relating to Barryroe issued in last RNS: �Reached key commercial terms with JV� �Well location agreed by JV� �Rig procurement process underway� �Project Manager appointed� �Plan to issue procurement of drilling unit early in Q1�

Then itll be 18-20p as next resistance point.

Oil Price Highest Its Been In 3 Years..... I think senitment will build here, realisation will set in at some stage amongst the market. 12p the key area to break and hold.

next break of 12p and we're away... absolute no brainer here in my book. Barryroe was valued �500-700mln by market 5 years ago when it thought Farm in to production was happening. Valued at �30m currently (EV) and FI looking extremely likely

looks rather leaky here I must say. All eyes on GBP's CPR now due for Gemsbok. Could be one of the largest most promising leads in the whole of the Walvis basin given snippets and hints to date. Farm in would blow the doors off. Priced at 20% above cash currently...

More coverage IMO, likely the company got approached or could be to do with buying out Henderson Group. �35m cash here

PVR was valued �500-700mln back following the discovery when the market thought that farm in was imminent and production scheme was going to be carried by a JV. So I disagree.... Barryroe has always been the flagship asset here, look at any broker report and Barryroe commands the lions share of the valuation because its a 2c resource that flows hugely commercial rates esp with a sidetrack. The fact that the market has gradually reduced its valuation from �500m to 0-�30m over the past 5 years is because eventually market never believed a farm in would happen and that the asset would never get developed. That has now changed, that paradigm is changing and there is a huge nailed on upside purely on that swing of realisation from the market. Druid/Drombeg as big as it was was only a 20% COS it was always a big punt to invest in PVR during the drilling process. That said good to see Total exercising their 35% option, they must see opportunity here still. A process of people waking up and smelling the coffee here, the best and easiest type of risers from my experience in this game. As I said before it wont happen overnight. GL

Assuming PVR manage to secure a farm likely to be 50%of Barryroe would mean that PVR go to 40% and LOGP go to 10% in return for a multi well drill program that is full carried by the new JV. PVR would retain 140mmbol Net 2c oil. This should conservatively then be priced at around $3/bl using standard industriy metric for contingent resource gives a fair valuation on Farm in being secured of $420m which is 52p per share and thats ignoring the huge cash balance PVR also has (circa 6.5p/share). So im amazed people are targeting just 20p per share here. Barryroe appraisal could also bolt another 700million barrels on to the 2c as well on top of all this.... With a sidetrack well projected to cost $5m to drill and return 14,000boepd you can quickly see here how PVR could be trading back at �500m valuation down the line. So I think on PVR securing farm in on Barryroe (assuming for 50%) I see 52p/share fair value and that is using a very conservative metric of $3/bl 2c. Hence I am continuing to pile in here under 10p. Given how few are posting here the market is yet to cotton on here which is providing a cracking opportuntiy to the early movers here. The above vaulation also ignores all of PVR's other assets and as we see Total now chosing to exercise their 35% option in the Druid/Drombeg its looking likely another drill will be happening there at some point also otherwise why exercise it! The cash position here is really what makes this a no brainer, LOGP will have to raise at some point shortly IMHO which I hope to piggy back on if retail get any. PVR on the other hand has bags of cash so 0 chance of a raise if farm in occurs. Keys to the rerate: A - the oil is there and it flows high quality crude and commercial rates B - appraisal drilling is much lower risk than wildcat exploration C - oil price is now considerably stronger at $60 and rig rates have stayed at the lows Market is still only pricing in �30m for Barryroe. Even wild cat explorers targetting far less net oil have far higher market caps purely on the speculation of it hitting the black stuff with COS less than 30%. PVR already have hit the black stuff. So all that needs to happen here is for the market to start pricing Barryroe back in. On farm in the market should really be pricing the existing known 2c resources in which gets you to 52p. Backed up here by 6.5p cash. A cracking low risk high upside opportunity quite unique. GLA can see a huge run north coming here the next month.

Key statements relating to Barryroe: *"Reached key commercial terms with JV"* *"Well location agreed by JV"* *"Rig procurement process underway"* *"Project Manager appointed"* *"Plan to issue procurement of drilling unit early in Q1"* The fact that PVR have �35m in cash, no debt means they actually have the cash to fund their share of the net 80% interest to drill both an appraisal and a sidetrack so don�t actually need a JV for these. This puts them in a much stronger position as any potential JV will realise this, and that pending a successful appraisal would be paying a lot more to farm in hence putting the pressure on them to make the decision now. PVR will be drilling H2 farm in or no farm in. Farm in though is what im holding out for as it will totally de risk this play fully funding it in to full production. That will totally rerate this share to 50p+ you simply cant argue with the numbers back that up, they themselves being conservative. The ones trying to deramp this are saying the JV isnt a done deal," read the last statement/caviat" etc etc the fact of the matter is A - it is a Nomad requirement to add that statement to any such deal that is nearing a completion conclusion. B - CEO would not risk having egg on his face even if the deal is 99% complete he would still include that statement from past history he wont make the same mistake again getting up false hopes. Read the above statements and make your own mind up, to me it all falls in to place. Oil price is flying, closing in on $70 whilst rig rates are lower than ever, economics for this have never been better. 2016 and 2017 were the second lowest and lowest (respectively) major oil discoveries on record worlwide. Major oil discoveries are on the decline so super majors are now turning towards appraising existing oil discoveries. We have weathered the bottom of the oil market now time to reap some of the most favourable conditions the market has ever presented with regarding to developing this asset and producing serious cashflow. 60m mcap, no debt, 35m in cash. 280mmbol net 2c resources that flowed 4000boepd from a vertical well and projected to flow 14,500boepd from a sidetrack when drilled. Total resource following further appraisal could be 1billion barrels net to PVR. Target production rate for the field is 100,000boepd. I see such a fantastic opportunity here hence I loaded another 220k shares here Thursday averaging up. I was waiting for a pull back from 14p before doing so as knew a pullback is inevitable after such a rise. Simple market mechanics, Now I see the next leg moving to 18p ahead of farm in news. Exciting times here.

Wouldnt surprise me to see this open 30p tomorrow. Cant imagine many sellers at anywhere near current levels. When Total exercise their farm in option ECO Market Cap will consist of over two thirds cash and have over 3 huge drills fully funded/carried. Guyana looking like absolute gold dust of a licence area. Entirely feasible you could add a "0" on to the the share price by the end of this year if all goes well.