Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Have added today. All the selling is just AVCT contagion and id expect it to subside in the next day or two.
PRE debt funding landed. Can only be a good thing here... we await patiently for Mez financing.
How on gods earth is PREM valued 50% higher than ATM
Is ramping up the tin production from 1000tpa to 2000tpa which will increase revenue by $26m pa at current tin price.
Bringing online Petalite sales of 250t/month by March (as guided) equates to $6m additional revenue per year assuming $2k/t
Selling Tantalum commencing March (In one historic interview AV mentioned Tantalum sales will be in ballpark of $5m/year for phase 1 - needs confirming).
So thats an additional $37m/annum of revenue that I can see in this current ramp up phase. This will obviously bring down the AISC hugely.. whats unknown is what the resultant EBITDA will be. Revs I get will be around $60m pa. If theyre break even AISC on the current $25m pa revs then would one argue any additional will be profit? We are trading at a ridiculous discount if so...
The PEA numbers for the phase 1 are as follows:
. Ore throughput (ROM) 2.5 mtpa
. Capex US$57 million
. Payback period(after tax) < 4 years
. NPV⁸ (after tax) US$523 million
. Annual gross revenue US$140 million
. Annual EBITDA (Avg) US$ 79 million
. Life of mine 55 years
These numbers even more meaty that my calculations so I wonder how they got these numbers... anyone got any greater visibility on the numbers for this Phase 1?
Phase 3 to give an idea of the sheer beast we're sitting on is a 50,000tpa LCE operation. LCE selling at $20k/t which equates to a whopping $1b per annum revenue.
Anyone know why finance here is taking an age? It's over run PAs guidance... reckon it's on the cusp of landing?
At least thats my best guess! Testing times to be a shareholder but these are the moments the lifechanging money is made. Ive been shaken out of positions out of frustration many times before only to go on and see them go on to multibag... I wont be making that mistake here
Great summary of all the newsflow thats pending at the moment. Think all holders currently feel the same way regarding the lack of newsflow here (longest in company history of news blackout) however by all accounts on the ground AV seems very up beat and my guess is theyre just lining things up behind the scenes.
They do indeed have warrants at 9.45p
Agree HarChris. Worst case with no extra mine extension THX still sits on $300m cash by the end which is 4x current SP alone (assuming gold stays at current levels). You have Douta possible 2m ounce resource on top which colourd arguably be near self funded by that point to go in to production.
Upside case is they find another big extension to the mine life in the drilling theyll be doing q2.
Q: You mentioned a promotion campaign is about to start, and as you rightly say, it’s a really tough market atm particularly in the lithium space, what are your plans to spread the word & to highlight what we seem to all see as huge value disconnect.
A: I will be working with our PR company StBrides and brokers SI Capital and Shard over the next period
Q: Lazy for me to ask this as but how much stock % do management hold? Are you guys aligned with shareholders?
A: Yes I have been investing throughout Mila’s lifetime
Q: Given the postcode of the asset & the surrounding majors, IGO, Belle Vue, BHP & Liontown. Have the company ever been approached by the likes of Belle Vue for a similar JV to the LTR one but in respect of the gold?
If not, and we do get some nice gold intersects, would the company be open to a similar deal to the LTR JV retaining a %age of the gold & an upfront cash payment?
Lastly, is this even something that could work, having LTR mine for lithium & BGO mine for gold?
A: I'll let Mark comment on the JV but in terms of gold and lithium assets in the same licence it would be a question of proximity and infrastructure. As long as the two orebodies and mine footprints wouldn't overlap then it would be OK.
Q: I understand that there could be water on the MILA license area and that this could be of economic interest to LTR. Could you tell us more about this?
A: Liontown are particularly excited about the water which they need for production and hope shortly to start drilling on the Coffey permissions which will provide more knowledge on the area for us
Q: How can Mila potentially monetise their water asset?
A: water quality in the MILA KV licence appears better for processing for LTR. It is less saline and therefore would have significant savings in terms of processing for them. The access to this water is within Mila's licence and therefore they would need to acquire it for access.
Q: Why do you think the shareprice is currently only reflecting £1m -£1.5m for the asset with JV deal attached? What steps do you plan on taking to help close the value disconnect between current value and projected fair value? For example have you thought about director buys or sourcing strategic Investors to restore investor confidence?
A: We have been waiting for Liontown to commence before starting marketing as we didn’t want to make promises in this difficult Lithium environment . Tonight is the start of a promotion campaign which we will now continue with as the work progress.
Q: Liontown were offered a $4.2bn takeover, albeit I think this was when lithium prices were much higher. I understand that their primary asset is their Kathleen Valley lithium resource. How does the size of their license area compare to MILA’s? There is clearly a bit of a value disconnect between the 2 companies 😂. I am trying to understand whether the MILA license area has the potential to contain a similar amount of natural resources as the Liontown license area, albeit clearly Mila are light years behind in terms of proving up and developing!
A: An extension to the existing LTR mineralisation is more likely. In terms of area it is possible for a similar sized orebody to occur in the Mila licence but the realistic opportunity is for a significant tonnage addition to their resource towards greater depth. LTR have a high grade orebody and it is a tier one project so any resource expansion within the Mila licence would still represent a great return.
Summary of text questions/answers as follows. You can find all the questions and answers in the Hive Telegram Group (link below)
Q: Given the issues that LTR face with the current lithium pricing environment, are you pleased with progress & speed of which they are working?
A: Yes. It is a great show of commitment from LTR and and understanding from their side of the medium to long term path for the lithium market. The Mila licence is a high priority target for them.
Q: How long will existing cash balance last?
A: We raised £2m before expenses last Nov Admin cost 12 m to 30/6/23 less capital raise expenses were £487k Liontown are covering all the current exploration cost so little overheads on top of that
Q: I saw LT we’re going to get their shares at a discount to market price but ended up paying 1p which was above the market price why was this?
A: Liontown originally invested pre the announcement they were farming in therefore wanted a discount as they thought our SP would go up substantially on the news. The SP surprised and went below our par value.Liontown were more than happy to change to 1p (premium at the time) and change their discount to a warrant at 2p in line with the placement
Q: This is what I think the market is missing. Despite the major issues facing LTR & the lithium market as a whole, the MILA asset must be held in high regard for them to push on with the work program given it’s time sensitive.
A: I guess we really need the grades & their optimism to match so we can receive the next stage payment & they can kick on again. Some nice gold grades would be a cherry on top.
Q: Roughly, what time frames would you estimate you would be in a position to have something to release to market?
A: LTR are due to push ahead with geochem' sampling in the near term. This will take a couple of months at least, possibly longer depending on permissions but hopefully by the end of Q2 we have more news. Our aim is to leverage off their detailed exploration work and let them carry the costs for now.
Q: Is MILA also appraising other assets or is the focus purely at KV?
A: Yes. The market is difficult for many earlier/post discovery projects at present and we see a clear opportunity to acquire an interest in stranded assets and advance them towards scoping and feasibility. The focus is on key metals- Copper, Gold, Lead-Zinc but with an openness to newer tech metals with the right opportunity.
Q: One thing I noticed on the Corporate Presentation was an "independent valuation" of £15 Million for the project. May I ask who developed this valuation, and what methodology they used to come to this conclusion?
A: It was an independent valuation by the accountants in the prospectus . It can be made available if required
Gut feeling is ducks have been lined up behind the scenes.
Another interesting think I found out yesterday was via someone who attended the Mining Indaba. Apparently there were loads of US government officials that attended (not normal). They apparently had the agenda to look at all things in the battery minerals space...so im sure ATM would have shone out like a beacon! Anyway thought that was worth sharing.. can only be a positive!
Perhaps they should use some of the $86m for share buy back to swallow up the loose holder. Only $1m or so would be enough to move the SP here 50%+
Indeed it is silly cheap. One distressed seller pulling out weak hands.
At 97,500oz @ AISC $1150 at $2030 gold price gives circa $86m profit per annum vs the current £67m Mcap!
PFS due Q1 which is a big milestone here, hopefully brings some new eyeballs
1 - Segun is very good at responding to emails.
2- The SP is down 8% on something like £12k of sells broken in to about 10 trades so its hardly like a large holder trading in this manor. This is clearly retail as incredibly amateur and very distressed to hit out small trades below bid.
Honestly think in 6months time here we could be looking 25-30p should they extend the mine life as expected. Chucking out 85-90m ebitda at the moment call it 1 x Mcap.
Its easy to be overly bearish at the bottom and overly bullish at the top. The seller is likely just more distressed contagion from more HZM fallout (has halved again past day or two). People capitulating left right and center on AIM at the moment.
Have been reassured guidance all remains on track so dont think anything untoward causing this selling. Its tiny tiny volumes pulling the price down due to buyers being exhausted.
*7pm
The guy is a criminal wearing a suit. Wouldnt surprise me if he was bribed by Glencore to mess things up in order for them to buy it on the cheap. The level of negligence this man showed was unfathomable