RE: Caribbean Refinery21 Sep 2025 14:07
Yes, agreed, it could be a unique opportunity to build up our presence in Panama without needing a full refinery integration, because the economic incentives are not purely about fuel pricing.
As some background: Sparkle would like to increase their opportunities to generate baseload power during non-peak and non-emergency periods, but they need to reduce their pollution per MWh of generated energy to be permitted by the regulator; they believe MSAR can help them achieve this.
Hence, their incentive to use MSAR is *not* just the discount offered, but also the opportunity to operate in periods where they otherwise would not be allowed to. Of course, they still need to compete with cheap hydro power, so I don't expect them to operate non-stop in normal circumstances.
This is just my personal analysis, but it seems to me that the above scenario offers the possibility the Panama project could be viable from MSAR produced at marine terminal (MSAR HFO blending).
Here's why, in broad strokes:
The customer would benefit from the significant fuel efficiency uplift offered by MSAR (e.g. 8%, reducing the cost per MWh), but they would *not* get the large discount from eliminating cutterstock. By itself, this would probably not be exciting enough to get people to move over.
From a refinery perspective, you can see would only want to commit if they are convinced Quadrise would be able to consistently sell large volumes of product. Just Sparkle would be modest amount, which may not be enough to make them commit.
However, if Sparkle are enabled to operate more frequently by MSAR's environmental benefits, then their peers with similar facilities will also be interested in adopting MSAR. This would start building the kinds of volumes that could interest a refiner to invest in a full refinery integration.
Hence, even without including the marine bunkering angle β which may take a bit longer due to engine testing, etc β at some point you can see how Quadrise could transition Panama from "MSAR HFO",Β easy, but least economically advantageous), to "MSAR Resid" (harder, but economically most advantageous).
Just thinking out loud on a Sunday afternoon about a topic I've been mulling over for a while.
I'm certain the team will be considering multiple options and scenarios, and it depends how their negotiations go.