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I suspect some are sceptical that Greenfield can raise the required money.

However, I think this is precisely why there is going to be a commercial proof-of-concept trial with an extensive independent engineers' report. The POC & independent evaluation will assess the technical, economic, and market aspects of the project: this will provide a high level of confidence to more traditional providers of funding (banks, bonds, investment funds, pension funds, merchant finance, family funds, venture finance, etc).

Having one partner in UK and one in US is helpful, as this opens up the two major regions (US and Europe) for funding these types of projects.

Couple of good vids with Tim going over his summary of the results and a few bits of analysis.

Proactive video with Tim:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yk7MdplW_Lc

Vox Markets with Tim:
https://audioboom.com/posts/7683911-tim-watts-ceo-of-shield-therapeutics-discusses-their-interim-results

I've seen a few concerns about cost per barrel.

This project is basically a combination of a brand-new upstream facility (discovery, development, extraction), and downstream facility (turning feedstock into finished fuel, shipping to customer). The correct comparison would be adding together the cost of a conventional oil field capable of doing 10k bopd + a refinery capable of producing 10k bopd ULS-HFO.

$18,500 per barrel capacity cost is very low.

From the papers and other sources I've read online, $30,000 per barrel capacity is where it usually starts in US for just the refinery. Okay, it's not necessarily perfectly comparable because this is basically going to be a premium emulsion fuel "refinery", and not producing much light end product like diesel and gasoline, but you get my point.

Also remember that the MSAR fuel produced here is a high-quality ultra-low sulphur fuel; it can easily meet IFO (intermediate fuel oil) marine grade or industrial/power grade. Hence, it's always sold at a premium to WTI because it's not just dregs. At the moment you are looking at about $55 per barrel. Loads of profit available even at today's depressed pricing, even if you offer a nice discount to customers.

Apologies, wrote and posted this before seeing elir71's response. It was in response to the earlier thoughts from 'tweetstreet'.

This plant isn't comparable to some simple unit addition at a refinery. It's literally an all-in-one upstream and downstream project combined together, so it's like exploration + production + refinery + retail.

Even at today's depressed prices for ULSFO and similar:
(45 * 3,650,000) - (25 * 3,650,000) = 73 million

Fiddle with numbers for different markets, transportation costs, licensing costs, etc. It still looks pretty darn good whichever way you cut it.

That's going to pay for itself rather rapidly today, and with higher energy pricing it should pay for itself .

I don't know of any refinery project that pays for itself in 2 years, most of them take 5-10+ years from the numbers I've seen. I've looked up several papers and practical feedback from refinery engineers online and $30,000 per barrel of processing capacity seems to be the benchmark in the US. But considerably higher is normal. $18,000 per barrel for a direct to consumer product is pretty good.

Are you a refinery engineer or have other info? Very interested to hear more.

Another thing worth noting is that it seems the product could get onto the Chinese regional market somewhat sooner than expected:

"""
The Chinese regulatory authority (CDE) has recently indicated that, for the New Drug Application, it is likely to require only a short-term Phase III study in Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) patients and will not require a pharmacokinetic study nor a Phase III clinical study in Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) patients. Assuming this is definitively confirmed by the CDE, successful execution of this study, which could start in early 2021, could lead to an application for marketing approval in H1 2022 and launch in H2 2023
"""

And

"""
In Australia, also a Norgine territory, the regulatory approval process is underway and it is possible that Feraccru® could be approved by the end of 2020.
"""

Re: under 18 group
"""
We have now successfully formulated and manufactured a suitable liquid formulation and the clinical study will start this month.
"""

And a nice note to end on...
"""
Accordingly, the strong progress being made across the Group gives the Board considerable confidence in Shield's outlook and prospects.
"""

Indeed, Elir.

It confirms the phenomenal economics at sub-$30 bbl costs, and likely sub-$25 bbl costs. Producing mostly Quadrise MSAR ultra-low sulphur fuel, with some bonus diesel and bitumen (probably for road products?).

I guess the only question people have is how Greenfield are going to fund it. That's where I think the POC comes in: they can confirm the consumer market demand and processes, use MSAR for on-site steam/heat, and get the rigorous independent engineering report done. This will be essential for making the project eligible for financing, I reckon -- $185 million is a fair chunk of change, but should be doable with a rock-solid report, convincing large financial entities of its viability.

Really good news!

Interesting podcast; worth listening to the range of views. It's a 2 parter, and this is part 1:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/audio/2020/sep/15/covid-19-ethics-should-we-deliberately-infect-volunteers-in-the-name-of-science-part-1

Got a notification that STX will be doing a live Q&A on Investor Meet Company on Wed -- https://www.investormeetcompany.com/shield-therapeutics-plc/register-investor.

You can submit questions in advance if you will not be available at the time of the meeting. I did one of these Q&A sessions recently for another company I invest in, and it worked very well.

Upgrades to the POSP should be completed early Q4 AIUI, so at a minimum I would expect they will update us at that point, as they'll be kicking off the critical Quadrise MSAR trial period (assuming all has continued to go well with upgrades). Check out latest PQE & TOM updates e.g. -- https://petroteq.energy/news/press-releases/detail/357/petroteq-provides-shareholder-update-and-announces

I'm sure there could be opportunities before then, though, to provide some kind of updates about progress of construction, commissioning, etc.

The post by stockriser is spam (probably soon to be deleted, so if it has vanished you know why); please ignore it and don't click through.

Correction: 4,000 hours for typical new LONO. Apologies for flub.

Think you have slightly misheard the marine segment.

Here's my transcript of that segment at timestamp 19:39

JM: [...] we are looking at commencing LONO trials for both of those clients. [...] those trials we are looking to commence towards the end of this year, probably Q1. But, obviously the agreements will be needed to be signed to do that this year. So, we are progressing the technical discussions, the commercial discussions, and looking to finalise the trial agreements with both of those clients.

So, AIUI, JM is saying the marine clients should be signed up this year, and that the LONO process itself will begin to commence either late this year or Q1. To me the contracts are the biggest part, when the physical activity begins is slightly secondary.

The other win here is that if they are doing transatlantic routes as previously described by JM, then in combination with scrubbers, they will rapidly churn through their 2000 steaming hours for the LONO. This would be because they are doing long uninterrupted stretches, should be able to use MSAR in ECAs/SECAs, with fairly minimal time in berth, at anchor, loading/unloading, etc.

I really hope these guys sign up earlier rather than later, as it would provide a huge boost.

Hope you are all well and have a great weekend!

Q&A video recording is now also available on Quadrise LinkedIn page (bit easier to access) -- https://www.linkedin.com/posts/quadrise-international-ltd_quadrise-fuels-international-plc-activity-6709866371490058240-LZ5S

Q&A recording now also available here on LinkedIn -- https://www.linkedin.com/posts/quadrise-international-ltd_quadrise-fuels-international-plc-activity-6709866371490058240-LZ5S

Well worth a watch for TomCo holders as they talk a bit about business strategy, and the collaboration developing between Greenfield and Quadrise in terms of identifying end customers, new market segments, etc.

I have re-watched, and I believe you are misinterpreting what was written/said. There was nothing that implied 15k bopd in q4 that I could see. However, we should know Q4 whether the Quadrise MSAR proof-of-concept has succeeded, which I have every confidence in.

Hopefully the process of moving towards a 10k facility will kick off in earnest in 2021, obviously with time needed for upgrades and construction.

Looking very good overall, I think.

I must have misinterpreted you, then. You said, "15,000 bopd total in Q4, which is next Q.", what did you mean by that?

Quite a lot. Worth watching/downloading the video and listening in! A significant amount of close collaboration is going on; sounds really good.

I don't think they were saying the new facility 10k bopd would be ready in Q4, but that the POSP trials of Quadrise MSAR and various upgrades to POSP should be completed during Q4.

Hi everyone. There was an Investor Q&A with the Quadrise leadership team today; you can access it on Investor Meet Company (you need to sign up). Greenfield was mentioned several times in a positive manner, and it is clear that QFI, Valkor and TomCo are collaborating closely on a regular basis -- should be of great interest to TomCo holders.

More details & link, etc, here: https://twitter.com/quorumzine/status/1303666336338509824