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Investor Podcast #2

Search Transgaurd Group 12 employees to over 50,000 in around 12 years.

HTTPS://TRANSGUARDGROUP.COM 🐝 ELRIC LANGTON

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A podcast was put out by Elric Langton on his sub stack page, last week , (that requires payment, to watch.)

Mr MC Geever was interviewed on the podcast, he is also an SBTX shareholder.

He built up , (and sold out ) of Transguard group.

Mr MC Geever said he could see a bid for SBTX of £1.80P a share in 18 months , and also a share price of £10 - £12 in 3 to 4 years. (14P today ).

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Mr MC Geever, has done it, and knows how it’s done. !!

Very few companies can grow that fast , SBTX has the ability to do just that, through its income from Croda. New parts of SBTX push the business even faster.

Another person on the podcast pointed out the Lysate is next generation , Green , sustainable , bio , and sees the shares at a fiver.

My personal target has always been my buying price (10p), to £10.00 having made returns in excess of that in the past from another stock

DaviU

Thanks tor that .

Croda are absolutely hell bent of doing the right thing, even though short term, it must hurt them as they transition .

Longer term they will be the out and out winners.

The more research I do the more I am convinced both companies are about to deliver something huge .

The uptake of the new Lysate product looks like being rapid.

Data and reporting - from mandatory compliance to meaningful action

Sustainability reporting is growing. but can be resource-intensive. A panel discussed balancing reporting s burden with its benefits. like access to capital. improved efficiency and compliance. Croda supports customers with data on carbon footprints, certifications and more.

Some of Croda's latest launches own a strong. transparent sustainability positioning due to the data achieved, better placing them in the market.

SBTX : Odd trades at 16.06 PM at full offer, followed by someone offering 15.3P in the closing auction.

10% chance of news tomorrow

5% chance of a bid.

This quote can be found on the Croda internet page.

*As we move towards a predominantly biobased portfolio, we want to understand and respect the pivotal role of nature and biodiversity*

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This from the largest cosmetic company in the world. It’s absolutely clear the change over from man made chemical product, to Bio, is about to hit an inflection point , with no going back.

This is how I see Croda and SBTX growing turbo charged profits over the next 8 years.

Croda sell £350M worth of high margin Matrixyl 3000 , anti ageing ingredient annually .

They need to go green , at higher margins to replace that product, ( without screwing themselves. ).

So , first of all , Croda need to produce the new Lysate far, far, cheaper and use less active ingredient.

3% Matrixyl down to perhaps 0.25% for the Lysate.

Price the first Lysate sales high, then reduce Lysate price, as volumes grow. This keeps the cosmetics companies more than happy. Reduce again, and again, up to the point of market saturation grabbing market share from others.At that point Croda and the cosmetics companies are still making more from the new Lysate, with perhaps 3X more sales, than from Matrixyl.

A win, win, for all.

To grab all the market , Croda and the cosmetics companies both need to make more margin than today. SBTX gain from more revenues,( be it , at a lower price).

The cosmetic companies get a LOWER price the more they sell, so, they move over to the new Lysate at pace.

The next wave of growth kicks in as Croda uses the Lysate outside of just skincare.

This needs to be agreed with SBTX under new contracts by the end of this year (2024).

Absolutely huge.

The odds are that’s just the way it may go.

For both Croda and SBTX

I can’t get too excited about Croda, simply because of its size, it’s impossible for it to grow 10, or 100 times at pace.

That said they need each other and I would like to see them do extremely well.

8 plus years work from SBTX to date, and 5 from Croda, plus £6M of cash

Croda would not have proceeded with the new Lysate unless it was an improvement on what’s in the market today.

The feedback from the human trials have returned, very positive.

The official launch is in April 24

The addressable market runs into billions per year.

Croda is the top cosmetic ingredient supplier in the world in the skincare space.

Consumers are crying out for sustainable end products, proven by science, to work.

Croda needs top line revenue growth and profits to keep the institutions off its back.

SBTX is valued around £25M , to justify that valuation , profits ,going forward ,need to be just over a million pounds and growing,( allowing for a highish PE Ratio.)

One now needs to view this from CRODA’S prospective.

That company requires tens of millions of pounds worth of sales ,in the early days, followed by hundreds of millions ,as the ingredient gets established in the market, over the longer term.

As far as I am aware the product name has not yet been released.

No forecasts are in the market

No reviews can be found on the WWW.

No marketing has shown up in public

Today , any investor who has found their way to this BB has a distinct advantage over those that will follow in the weeks and months to come.

SBTX is due to pick up 10% plus of CRODA’S sales of the product, let’s say 15%.

On that basis Croda needs to sell just £10M worth to justify the SBTX market cap of(£25M ), with the two new companies, and the other parts of SBTX, thrown in for free.

Now here’s the rub ::

The issue for Croda , is £10M of sales for them, is like you filling your car up, with 50p in your pocket.

Croda needs vast recurring sales numbers.

£10M would be just 1% of total sales, (from the Croda consumer sales division.)

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To sum up.

SBTX could see its market cap increase off the scale, over the next 12 months.

It would also explain why S/A is of the view his 80p and £1.00 option target prices, will be triggered.

Croda did not put out its 3/4rd quarter trading update this week.

SBTX issued an investor meet up that can be found here

https://youtu.be/u8yL7Ku2KZs?si=se9dKW16cRVUxilb

Sorry

Link incorrect, tap into YouTube

100 TO 1 IN THE STOCK MARKET (BY THOMAS PHELPS)

Two months old but gives a flavour of the SKTX / Croda deal, ( and more ).

https://youtu.be/9FUpN2fF5Wk?si=J7OSRdtgoB6Vdn16

Https://youtu.be/aEte7A35uEw?si=rHt4TIUwndQ6vbYW

As per the video :

To increase ten thousand pounds to one million pounds. : 100/1

Your company, in this case SBTX , has to increase its yearly profits from those today , between 25 and 100 times. over a long period.

I agree.

Today SBTX requires profits of £1.3M on a PE of 25 to justify its valuation.( £25M market cap.) right now, the shares are based on prospects, not profits made.

So , for my example I will start with £1.3M profit . ( even though SBTX is NOT yet in profit ).

Thus growth in profits needs to be a min of 25 times that, over time , if the PE stays the same.

Profits between £32.5M to £138M per year, are needed for the shares to increase 100 times.

These numbers get sharply reduced , if the PE ratio goes up over the period.

Let’s use 15 years, on a par with some of the best 100 fold risers on the stock market over the last 25 years.

Moving on, with what we know so far, about possible massive earnings from Croda, and SBTX breaking even, after next company purchase, due any day.

The cash pouring in is then used for yet more growth.

On an assumption Matrixyl is phased out and Croda itself increases its own profits.

On assumption SBTX gets 15% of Croda Lysate sales, near net profit.

On the assumption that Croda signs up to use the Lysate in other areas.

On the assumption Croda takes market share from others.

Some sums

Matrixyl today £350M sales @15% to SBTX = £52.M

So over the next 15 years , SBTX could increase 100 fold.

Only time will tell.

NO 1spot this morning on the leader board is SRT.

SBTX has a common shareholder in both micro companies.

Mr Brierwood

This chap knows his stuff, having in the past been a top director at Morgan Stanley.

These are his only two listed investments with over 3%holdings.

Some notes and assumptions to start the week.

Croda is 225 larger, by market cap , than SBTX

Yet, if this new Bio Lysate is the breakthrough ingredient I believe it is, then a very disproportionate proportion of CRODA’S overall sales, and profits , will be derived from it.

In the next month or two we could see the Lysates use jump out of its pure skin care use at Croda , into sun cream, wound care , and infection prevention , to name a few.

This make me ponder the longer term , could Croda , in 5 plus years time, go through the billion pound sales figure, just from the Lysate. ?

On paper yes , but it’s a leap of faith in the product , that said , both Apple, and Coca Cola , cornered the market with products that consumers loved.

My prediction is for SBTX to have the same size market cap as Croda (£6BN,) within ten years, (so long as the Lysate is up to the job.)

If it’s not , all bets are off. !!

I can well understand 99.9% think that is for the fairies , I can live with that . 😎

Some notes and assumptions to start the week.

Croda is 225 larger, by market cap , than SBTX

Yet, if this new Bio Lysate is the breakthrough ingredient I believe it is, then a very disproportionate proportion of CRODA’S overall sales, and profits , will be derived from it.

In the next month or two we could see the Lysates use jump out of its pure skin care use at Croda , into sun cream, wound care , and infection prevention , to name a few.

This make me ponder the longer term , could Croda , in 5 plus years time, go through the billion pound sales figure, just from the Lysate. ?

On paper yes , but it’s a leap of faith in the product , that said , both Apple, and Coca Cola , cornered the market with products that consumers loved.

My prediction is for SBTX to have the same size market cap as Croda (£6BN,) within ten years, (so long as the Lysate is up to the job.)

If it’s not , all bets are off. !!

I can well understand 99.9% think that is for the fairies , I can live with that . 😎

SBTX all time low in 2004 was 7P with a market cap of £13.8M at that time

To ten bag from the low = market cap of £138M

To one hundred bag = £1.38BN.

To hundred bag SBTX profits need to be £50M a year, on a high growth PE of 40.

That would require Croda sales of £500M a year.

Can both targets be hit over time, ? Yes, I think so.

It would require the new green bio Lysate to replace Matrixyl 300, that’s in use today, and grab some sales, from the competition.

The above are very bold forecasts, that you will not find being written by any city broker.

They should not ,under any circumstances, be relied on.

This kind of strategy, has produced a 100 fold increase in my pension portfolio over the last 19 years. Shares are not rocket science, finding that single share, that can possibly 100 bag, is the difficult bit.

We just might have one here, that’s up to the job.

I try to invest, prior to the city, who seldom have the guts to go out on a limb, without profit conformation first.

Croda will clearly do extremely well out of the bio Lysate as well , however ,down to its sheer size , it can’t more than perhaps ten bag ,over the next 5 years

Croda quote.

*As we move towards a predominantly biobased portfolio, we want to understand and respect the pivotal role of nature and biodiversity.*

The London stock market has yet to cotton on , to the rapid change, within the cosmetic market,= to dump older oil based products, replacing them with bio.

This is where the SBTX IP wins hands down.

Matrixyl 3000 today’s mainstay, is looking outdated, and seems to about to be super-seeded, with a truly greener replacement .

It will not be overnight , I and guessing on up to 48 months for the full chageover..

All the signs to date, also point to the new green ingredient, being an improvement on Matrixyl 3000.

We will know more over the next few months.

SEP SBTX RNS

In addition, any concurrent testing in focussed application areas was to be detailed in further, additional commercial agreements; the aim is to conclude these subsequent discussions before the end of the year.

The market has put zero value on the above, which is daft, since new agreement's could see revenues, and hence profits, for both companies, being very substantial indeed.That income would also be recurring.for decades.

On a side note yet more director buying of TRD.

Having hit my target of a 100 fold increase in my pension pot within 20 years my plan was to retire from investing.

However the target was hit in 19 years, so any funds over £3M have been invested in a single share SBTX.

My target is to ten bag plus, that stock within the next 12 months.

Huge Croda trade reported at the end of Friday, at full price.