Member Info for Dustbin101

That first trade and mark up says it all .!!!

Bazz it has all the hall marks of a 3 or 4 day worked order

The clue is in the Croda share price rise over that time.

Had it been weak I would have agreed with your view.

The MM are out to make profits nothing else.

Take zero notice of Bazz it looks far more like a worked order to me .!!

Hence the rise of the last few days

MM working at their best

Time, will no doubt tell .

Peter Lynch's Fair Value Formula

The Peter Lynch fair value formula is shown below:

Peter Lynch's Fair Value = (Future EPS Growth Rate + Dividend Yield) / P/E Ratio

SBTX has no dividend, so shareholders should just work on assumed rate of profit growth of SBTX.

Care of the Lemmings research, 4 months ago

Based exclusively on royalties from Croda’s Zenakine™ product, which is derived from SkinBioTherapeutics’ proprietary SkinBiotix® platform, we estimate SkinBioTherapeutics’ future fair value lies between 66p and 332p per share assuming 10% minimum royalty participation and a conservative sector P/E of 15x. Zenakine™ already exceeds Matrixyl by formulation breadth (600+ vs 68 but higher than my barely double digit), with clinical validation, cleaner margins, and superior commercial scalability. These figures exclude any contribution from SkinBioTherapeutics’ consumer or partner businesses for AxisBiotix range, (the Superdrug deal ).

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In the next 3 years I can see the PE ratio near matching, the annual SBTX profit growth rate, which I personally put at 200% or more be it from a low base line ( Peter lynch supports this basis of valuation .( if profits rise by 200% your PE of 200 goes back to 50 on a tax free basis in year one , then 12.5% in year 2).

When investors get conformation of the potential, for super fast growth, from ANY company, they tend to be willing to pay for that future growth.

Hence a PE Ratio of 15 in my view is way, way, too low.

Double the PE ratio, double the share price.

Then double again, and again.

Blockbuster products or services , don’t conform to standard broker metrology.

The trick is to watch profit growth and PE expansion combine to produce staggering profits for investors

Last weeks Croda update has firmed up my conviction, this is what SBTX investors are about to witness

Why Matrixyl is at the end of its life.

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From a Croda prospective :

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It’s produced using old production plants

It goes against all of their sustainability polices and targets

Croda no longer have the Matrixyl pricing power that it had in the past.

It requires expensive heating and cooling.

Operating margins are now slim.

From a clients prospective

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It’s synthetic , not green or sustainable

Cosmetic companies on average churn 10% of their products a year , after 25 years since Matrixyl was introduced, massive improvements have been achieved in newer products: ( Zenakine )

The end consumer no longer wants to plaster their body with unnatural cosmetics.

The boards of the cosmetic companies, and the industry, are all going sustainable at pace , through written policies and actions.

That same industry is crying out for new and improved products, to increase market share and profits for themselves .

License Fees

Quite a few of the deals include upfront license fees. In fact, 262 of the 574 deals reported, 45.6%, required

the licensee to make an upfront payment to the licesnor at the onset of the deal. For these 262 deals, the average license fee is $31.4 million but this value is a slight distortion of what might be considered a normal upfront fee as the deal between Merck and Bristol Meyers Squibb regarding Keytruda involved a $625 million upfront fee. At the other end of the spectrum is a $5,000 upfront fee for a deal between McGill University and Amarillo regarding a Hepatitis technology. A distribution of the license fees is presented below

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SBTX did not receive a licence fee in 2019

Nor was a fee paid in 2024

This might point to a royalty above 10%

In truth we may never know the scale of the Zenakine take-up unless the trademark name is used (other than by the increase in SBTX revenues). As an example crystaline was launched in 2018 and yet isn't trademark listed in any commercial products

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Agreed ;

SBTX yearly, and interim accounts, allowing for the 3 month delay in payment terms from Croda, is the only full proof way

However investors can pick up clues from various sources now, and more when Zenakine hits the shelf.

Croda showed the way last week , Actives growth is starting to come through.

You can only make such a statement if sales are projected to materialise from orders already won.

In the case of Zenakine as soon as a client has signed up , it’s just a matter of calling off the product.

When Zenakine is out in the market place , ( within finished client formulations, ) more data will be available



Broker Zenakine Assumptions :

Our research suggests royalties in the range 15%-20% on the ex-works price or 5% -12% of the wholesale price.

Croda web page this morning :

Close to customers: global operations

By building direct relationships with customers, rather than using distributors, and collaborating with them at Croda innovation centres around the world, we gain a detailed understanding of their needs helping us to identify new opportunities.

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AI Overview

Wholesalers vs Distributors: Understanding Key Differences.png

A distributor is not the same as a wholesaler, although both act as intermediaries between manufacturers and retailers. A distributor typically works more closely with a manufacturer, often with exclusive rights to sell in a specific region, and takes a proactive role in marketing and selling the products. A wholesaler buys in bulk and resells to retailers, with a more general, less exclusive relationship focused on fulfilling retailer orders.

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It appears Croda does not use a distributor, or wholesaler, within the Zenakine supply chain.

If that is the case , then perhaps SBTX royalties are above 10%

(10% being the lowest double digit number)

This is the one you should perhaps note

CRODA, CRODA, CRODA

Steve Foots: Okay, Chintan. Thanks for the questions. I'll do actives and crop and Stephen on guidance. Yeah. I was at Sederma last week for two days, just running the rule of the business, and I mean great progress there. Innovation-led growth. We are we have been growing, by the way, over the last few quarters, but this is a bigger growth, and we're very pleased with that. Well balanced across local and regional, and multinationals. Actually, it's USA-led and there's many behind the growth figures. It's not one or two customer wins. It's many product launches with customers of all different shapes and sizes. Primarily, virtually all of it is on innovation, some great new products coming out and some existing products with new data. So we feel very confident about the actives business.

You've got a positive mix starting to come through, particularly with actives growing in consumer



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One does not actually require an SBTX broker forecast, when your partner informs you , in public , the above based on Active sales, over the last 9 months,( and more importantly the future direction of those sales)

If , as a Croda client, you wanted to use Zenakine from the off, I guess you made your boardroom decision late last year, (2024 ), if you were a multi national, or in the first six months of this year, (2025), for most second tier players.

That’s why Foots said, what he did , last week.

It was aimed 100% at Croda shareholders, (not those invested in SBTX).

It’s basically now just a case of roll out, and calling off Zenakine by those clients

That growth can expand for a decade or more.

Zenakine is not the only new product within Croda Actives , but it’s by far the largest, in terms of addressable market.

Actives sales by Croda are in the region of £200M a year of which half, up till recently, has been Matrixyl ;

Source : Singer broker note.

Form my research;

I take a conservative view that 50% of the Active growth Foot’s referred to , this week, is Zenakine.

It might be much closer to 75%.

I am only referring to the growth in Croda Actives sales, not any potential hidden replacement of Matrixyl with Zenakine. ( swapping on old Active, with a new one )

We know Matrixyl sales are not growing.

Source: S.Foot”s comment last week ; ( all Actives growth is from new products. ).

**Anyway, you are right about one thing, I have spent too much time on here trying to educate you pair of numbskull’s.**

Great, pop back , with a new positive attitude

PLEASE

Unlike you Bazz I am happy when others do well.

I don’t wake up each day filled with Ashman ANGER

My track record is validated, your free copy will if available at this years SBTX AGM

I’ve done the 232 bagger and the 64 bagger

48% compound or 27% compound adjusted for withdrawals for 19.5 years

Well, you’re either very young and on your school holidays, unemployed or retired based on the fact you spend every waking hour crying on this chat board so…

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Toyin will be old , over 60 for sure

He is bitter, he made a call to early, and rather than reflect on himself, ( like we all do ), he enjoys putting the blame on others

It’s a way of life

Just look back on this thread

Toyin

Yep you started

I LIKE

me, me,

You like to tell the directors how to run their company

You have under 3% of the shares

Your posts have undermined all the Lemmings work , and continue to do so.

You bleat about a false market in the shares , yet you do your darn best to scare the pants off any potential new investor

Suckers is perhaps harsh, I will retract it

However , the question is this :?

You have had perhaps 25 different issues with Ashman and over 1,000 trading days to SELL

But still you prefer to play the : me me , game .

I do not understand why .?

I never will

Do these posters think for one minute, that Morgan Stanley chap, and Dixon has such a mindset that has made them both millions .??

CP2891

The SBTX detractors are just displaying the same anger that can be found of 200 other AIM stock BB*S

They go round, and, round, and round .

NEVER do they question themselves

Why did they not sell after the first, second, third , fourth letdown .?

It’s about their own personalities

They are far, far, happier ( as displayed here today, ) churning over old ground .!!

Rather than slate the man perhaps understand that his efforts, in poor market conditions have got to this juncture .

Next time purchase around the time of revenues being delivered ;

Also note new investors now get 5 revenue streams for 14p all live, when you purchased you had none

Quite simply

You were suckers, who fail to do simple research at the time, and were sold a project that at the time was very, very, high risk.

As it happens on this occasion you have got away with it, as Ashman kept the show on the road.

Now admit you get in at the wrong time, and get ready for the rewards.

Cp2891, a delay of a week or month may not be significant; but as Toyin pointed out, some SBTX delays have been measured in years and this can't simply be whitewashed by investors who weren't on board at the time.

Worse, misjudged or invented forecasts lead to a false market as investors tend to buy shares when they are told that big news is expected next week next month or next year. One occurrence could be dismissed as naiveté or incompetence but multiple occurrences look like orchestrated market abuse - which happens too often on AIM so as to artificially inflate a share price so that a fund raise can be got away.

Ashman's record of broken promises without timely clarifying updates looks increasingly like market abuse and he must be stopped – by shareholders or by the regulator. If you think otherwise then you are part of the problem.

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SKYCHAP:

Each and every AIM company , that is not in profit, and requires more cash from shareholders to stay afloat will say ANYTHING to keep the show on the road.

Most then go bust.

Here you have had the pain

Now for the rewards

Croda.

Steve Foots: Okay, Chintan. Thanks for the questions. I'll do actives and crop and Stephen on guidance. Yeah. I was at Sederma last week for two days, just running the rule of the business, and I mean great progress there. Innovation-led growth. We are we have been growing, by the way, over the last few quarters, but this is a bigger growth, and we're very pleased with that. Well balanced across local and regional, and multinationals. Actually, it's USA-led and there's many behind the growth figures. It's not one or two customer wins. It's many product launches with customers of all different shapes and sizes. Primarily, virtually all of it is on innovation, some great new products coming out and some existing products with new data. So we feel very confident about the actives business.

You've got a positive mix starting to come through, particularly with actives growing in consumer



===========================================================





One does not actually require an SBTX broker forecast, when your partner informs you , in public , the above based on Active sales, over the last 9 months,( and more importantly the future direction of those sales)

If , as a Croda client, you wanted to use Zenakine from the off, I guess you made your boardroom decision late last year, (2024 ), if you were a multi national, or in the first six months of this year, (2025), for most second tier players.

That’s why Foots said, what he did , last week.

It was aimed 100% at Croda shareholders, (not those invested in SBTX).

It’s basically now just a case of roll out, and calling off Zenakine by those clients

That growth can expand for a decade or more.

Zenakine is not the only new product within Croda Actives , but it’s by far the largest, in terms of addressable market.

Actives sales by Croda are in the region of £200M a year of which half, up till recently, has been Matrixyl ;

Source : Singer broker note.

Form my research;

I take a conservative view that 50% of the Active growth Foot’s referred to , this week, is Zenakine.

It might be much closer to 75%.

I am only referring to the growth in Croda Actives sales, not any potential hidden replacement of Matrixyl with Zenakine. ( swapping on old Active, with a new one )

We know Matrixyl sales are not growing.

Source: S.Foot”s comment last week ; ( all Actives growth is from new products. ).