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When the mcap reached a billion there was probably entry into some custom indexes. The institutional traders work on spreads if they think there's going to be movement they could easily have many derivative deals backing the sp going down. The buying of the shares could be the hedge for all we know
Could be lots of things, assuming it's evidence of any particular direction would be a false assumption
You do know none of these institutions will be naked on these positions?
Thats not how it works, there will be some sort of overall strategy which will include hedging.
Institutional investor holding shares doesn't actually give any indication on the direction of the sp.
Yes, would seem that way. If the plan is asset sale, you would get a dividend and keep shares. But as the company would no longer have assets the sp would plumet. Would be best to sell up once qualified for divs. You could always buy back lower later
That article seems to think the company is over valued at 700m because of the high mining costs. And the RNS doesn't change that. As a pit mine these would be expected lower than the peer group, but not mentioned anywhere. The cash position argument doesn't hold water either, there's more than enough cash to operate and a stockpile of premined rock.
@lamstree
Theres nothing on the table firm as it stands. It's a valid scenario to ask. I hold lots of shares in EUA not sure why you think I don't. I suspect you have brought in more than you can afford to lose here.
I guess impossible to value then is the answer.
If for whatever reason the parties involved can't come to a satisfactory deal and the we come out of takeover protocol with no deal, what would a target price be?
We all agree the biggest rises have come from speculation on a takeover. We didn't see anything back when the flanks were approved so that must have been priced in already, same for the recent JV there was no real value added to the average sp.
If EUA go it alone, we would expect solid dividends from the cash they make mining themselves but what would people estimate the sp to sit at (after the initial dumps)?
Do we estimate pre suspension level at 5-7p?
The metal prices these days we would hope have taken us higher than there
People claiming UBS dont work without retainer unless they think its going to be a mega deal and talking about how great UBS are. Yes they are a big player in M&A but theres absolutely no indication who is even working on this. For all we know it could be on some associates desk. It's not unsual for companies like UBS to work on success fee basis. We literally have no idea how much work they are putting in either way or how senior the people working on it are. I'd guess if it was a 7 figure deal then it would be somebody senior but indications are to a more complex deal if any. Certain people assume big deal because UBS success fee and then they will claim its full might of UBS because its a big deal.....
Tl:dr
We don't know if we have the full might of UBS working on a deal or just some junior. Wrong to assume success fee basis indicates mega deal because it's UBS.
Don't look forward to more abuse for giving a level headed opinion on a share I hold. Toxic board
This childish bickering isn't helping anybody.
TMS raises valid questions, ie the value of EUA gone up magnitudes more than the value of the resource; a buyout isn't assured and if it doesn't come, the price will drop.
The other side of the argument is the board seem keen to do what's right by investors and put some profit in our hands. The assumption being EUA was hugely undervalued 18 months ago so the price today is more in line with its true value.
People should make their own decions on the risk and only put in what they can afford to lose (either way)
PS TMS isn't "after your shares for cheap" he/she has a short position on spreadex. It's cash settled derivatives if I understand correctly.
I actually made my first buy at 0.9p (stop loss activated at 2p but brought back in again shortly after).
People definitely need a heavy pinch of salt on this forum though. So many claims using the assumption a favourable deal is going to happen. Ultimately we don't know anything regarding the sale and are all taking a gamble. People need to remember that.
My personal belief is that it's going to a bit more complex of a deal than a full buyout only due to the fact there was a director position for M&A created.
Long time lurker, first time poster.
Brought into HUM at 37.5p
Was put onto the company by some family and did some research. Seemed like a punt but wasnt getting any bad news. I don't usually stray too far from the things I understand well but what I was/and am hearding all seems positive for the company. Still holding as I'm hopefull the price isn't indicitive of the company performance.
So, given the poor sp performance over the last year I am curious to know what attracted other people to invest in HUM in the first place?
Do people have a background in mining?