Member Info for Dunston

I see China and Philippines tensions making headlines again today, anyone see an escalation as a serious long term risk?

The Philippines should be safe as long as the US Defense Treaty remains in place, but hopefully we don't get too much of a haircut applied if political/jurisdiction risk increases. Keen to hear how others are feeling about this, its the one thing making me feel uneasy.

Don Durrett who is pumping all of the canadian juniors is using a multiple of 18 times FCF to come up with his 10/20/50 baggers! His top 10 after Beaver Creek conference have doubled in about a month though

"Oct '27 : Runruno potentially declining but still contributing." The biox circuit won't exist in 12 months!

Darren is attributing more cash flow from Dupax in 2028 versus La India, so if it happens it won't be 10-25oz per year. Probably wouldn't be a runner at those levels.

Thanks for the reply Lee, not sure why I didn't pick up on that! Thought the free cash flow estimates for 2028/29 was his opportunity to let the shackles off a bit and at least use current gold prices, although hard to believe just 6 months ago gold was hovering around the 3000$ mark.

Some other longer term boosts to the SP not getting too much attention, resource statement for Manikbel end of next year. 3.5% grades in a porphyry deposit at surface is crazy and he mentions a billion tonne ore body! Substantial enough initial capex no doubt. Interesting he is looking at JVs for other lower grade major porphyrys in the country, the Tampakan Project would seem to fit the bill. Also mentions of La India tenement possibly being extended to capture old promising Newcrest ground.

Hi Lee, have watched a few of the videos back and haven't heard of any reference to 185k per year at La India. Darren has mentioned 110k in 2027, rising to 145k in 2028. I'm trying to figure out why he was referring to $180m free cash flow from La India in 2028 and $400/500m total free cash flow from the 2 mines in that most recent Crux video posted here titled "Gold Producer Targets $500M Annual Cash Flow by 2028". Your free cash flow (~$1b) looks more in line based on the info at hand but he is at half those numbers? I know he tends to be conservative but that's in a different league

Is that $2B from Dupax alone?

More jam tomorrow news no doubt, they have been over there 2 weeks. But no deal inked as you said.

Don’t shoot the messenger, Let’s hear from the man himself. I’ve never stopped buying MTL thanks!

Stanley gone quiet, must’ve heard what I heard

Where is this substantial update Stanley?

Can anyone see the new presentation on the website? Doesn’t seem to be there yet

How many of these did you get? 2/8 and one of those out of the company's hands, i.e. the gold price. Some critical analysis of the RNS would be appreciated

How come there was no update on the illegal miners and the access issues?
Can we assume stage 4/5 access is clear?
2023 production guidance would suggest not.
Don't post often but was surprised this hasn't been mentioned, could be a possible driver of SP performance post RNS.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-dT7XBRDvo

48 mins in.. No mention of AMC but interesting none the less

Any significance to Derlak coming up blank, or too early to tell yet?

"With the lack of available resources and parts, operations are prioritising keeping equipment running rather than attempting to enhance production outcomes."

From the 30th Oct interim results RNS - what improvements to production are you expecting in Q4?
I'm hoping for something positive but not expecting anything major. Hasn't been confirmed that senior management have been able to return to the site yet. I'm expecting more of the same, power outages and biox issues etc, as has been the case every quarter so far.

There was a strong close in Canada yesterday after these options became public knowledge. Wouldn't pay any attention to LSE movements on this stock

This video confirms TDT's take on the first video post RNS. Phase 2 for NRR is 3 years away though - is this some kind of indication for when we should expect to see the mine build raise?

Habib said they have been working with Glencore on this deal since March. So either we're in bed with 1 household metals name or else we're in bed with 2.

Some interesting comments by Habib in interview below, he expects the iron ore price to retreat considerably from current highs. Note at the end he says Amur's copper output will be announced shortly.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/082520-interview-amur-glencore-to-ship-iron-ore-from-nrr-australia-mine-from-q4