NAV is 4.0p19 Sep 2024 09:07
Sound holds the Tendrara gas asset onshore Morocco, which contains 305bcf of gross sales gas, or 10.2mmboe net to Sound’s 20%. Phase 1 development is already underway, with first gas sales at 10mmcf/d gross (0.3mboe/d net) via a micro-LNG facility expected in mid-2025. Phase 2 is substantially larger, targeting 42mmcf/d gross (an additional 1.4mboe/d net). Sound recently announced a significant farm out to Moroccan[1]based natural resources player Managem which, alongside an agreed debt facility, is expected to see Phase 2 fully funded (including c.US$13m of cash back costs for Sound) and leave Sound on 20%. The farm out should close in the coming weeks, and we then expect progression of FEED, going into Phase 2 FID in mid-2025, and first gas sales from Phase 2 in mid-2027. Once Phase 2 is onstream, our long-term forecasts imply Sound EBITDA of £17m and FCF of £12m – significant cash flows for a company of its size, which will also help pay down debt. The farm out also funds the SBK-1 and M5 exploration wells nearby Tendrara, expected to be drilled in 2025. In terms of upcoming catalysts, we expect closure of the farm out followed by Phase 2 FEED work, completion of Phase 1 in early 2025, first gas sales from Phase 1 and also Phase 2 FID both in mid-2025, and the two exploration wells in Q2/Q3 2025 – a busy overall programme. Our total risked NAV is 4.0p, and we have a positive outlook for the shares