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What's the bopd expected production for this well?
Can anyone give a bit more info on what are the implications of starting SH-G drilling?
Expected to be onstream in Q1 2022. Would bringing SH-G onstream require the FDP approval first?
Weekly performance:
OXY +16.18%
MRO +10.94%
PXD +7.64%
GKP -2.76%
GENL 2.60%
DNO 3.52%
Today, no doubt this is a burden on the stock price
SM SM Energy Company 25.08 +2.06 +8.95% 1.536M 3.584M 2.963B N/A
CDEV Centennial Resource Development, Inc. 7.45 +0.55 +8.04% 4.807M 8.049M 2.089B N/A
CPE Callon Petroleum Company 59.14 +4.11 +7.47% 1.187M 1.892M 2.736B N/A
RRC Range Resources Corporation 15.97 +1.18 +7.98% 1.206M 5.058M 3.986B N/A
MTDR Matador Resources Company 36.21 +1.70 +4.93% 433,952 1.535M 4.229B N/A
AR Antero Resources Corporation 14.48 +0.68 +4.93% 1.569M 6.895M 4.539B N/A
SWN Southwestern Energy Company 5.42 +0.23 +4.43% 3.487M 14.192M 3.669B N/A
OVV Ovintiv Inc. 32.00 +1.32 +4.30% 612,596 2.479M 8.353B N/A
OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation 31.27 +1.26 +4.20% 8.566M
Last payment note was released after payment terms update. Delay on last payment did have an effect on the market cap
Last payment was released on the 20th of May.
This is weighing down the share price ahead of the dividend!!
All is in the title. The use a DCF valuation model. These are their numbers
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Gulf Keystone Petroleum.
LSE:GKP Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 6 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 9.5%
Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 1.0%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for LSE:GKP
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 1.0%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6.5%
Oil and Gas Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 1.26
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.255) * (1 + (1 - 21.0%) (20.34%))] 1.306
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 1.306
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.00% + (1.306 * 6.48%) 9.47%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:GKP using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Gulf Keystone Petroleum is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
LSE:GKP DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 9.47%)
2021 81,48 Analyst x5 74,43
2022 129,25 Analyst x4 107,86
2023 134 Analyst x2 102,16
2024 103 Analyst x1 71,74
2025 104 Analyst x1 66,17
2026 97,7 Est @ -6.06% 56,79
2027 93,85 Est @ -3.94% 49,83
2028 91,55 Est @ -2.46% 44,41
2029 90,25 Est @ -1.42% 39,99
2030 89,62 Est @ -0.69% 36,28
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $649
LSE:GKP DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $89,621 x (1 + 1.00%) ÷ (9.47% - 1.00% ) $1069,29
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
$1069 ÷ (1 + 9.47%)10 $432,85
LSE:GKP Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $649 + $433 $1081,85
Equity Value per Share
(USD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $1082 / 210 $5,15
LSE:GKP Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate USD/GBP
(Reporting currency to currency of LSE:GKP) 0.711
Value per Share
(GBP) = Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD / GBP)
= $5.15 x 0.71 £3.66
Value per share (GBP) From above. £3.66
Current discount Discount to share price of £1.73
=
KRG is willing to increase contract allowances.
JF good news is related to an oil production increase agreement with the KRG. From 55K to north of 75K.
Thanks!
Way wrong! First of all, you have to consider iraqui working calendar days. That's around 180 days. Also, exclude Nov and Dec as they have not been paid out so that reduces further 10/12 the total number of calendar days. That leaves around 150 days for pair calculations
From a first analysis of the full-year result. It is worrying to see that the capital investment has gone up to $90m from $36m in 2018 and from $8 in 2017. It is worrying because it has only brought a mere 1300 bopd. There is an unspecific explanation about where the capital investment has gone:
"Capital investment
In 2019, net capital investment in Shaikan amounted to $90.0 million,
within the stated 2019 guidance of $88-$104 million. Investment
included the export pipeline from PF-1 to the main regional export
pipeline, SH-12 and SH-9 wells, SH-1 and SH-3 workovers, production
facilities expansion work, various studies and reservoir engineering
including certain long-lead items for the 75,000 bopd programme.
In line with Gulf Keystone’s strategy of maintaining a conservative
financial position, the Company has delayed further expansion of
Shaikan until the macro-economic environment improves, including
resolution of outstanding KRG payments.
Net 2020 capital expenditure forecasts include expenditures incurred
to date and remaining firm commitments and are estimated to be
$50- $60 million ($40-$48 million net), a c.50% reduction from 2019.
While Gulf Keystone has a low-cost structure, the Company is targeting
operating costs and G&A reductions of at least 20% and is in the
process of reducing its expatriate workforce by c.60%."
With such poor increase in bopd, it is required to give an in-depth explanation where the capital investment has gone specifically.
Let's talk seriously.
First and foremost. Do you know if this a callable debt?
When are the Full Year Results for 2019 expected to be released?
Who is pegging this stock at 70.00p? Is that the share repurchase program? or is there any sort of institutional or governmental intervention?