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It’s been an odd few days with the SP swinging all over the place. I did think we would be higher than where we are tonight.
Chatting to work colleagues in South Africa this morning. Covid situation getting worse. Government announced schools to close this Wednesday. Only over 60 s being offered the vaccine… also there doesn’t appear to be a private option to pay for one if you are younger and have the means. Pretty bleak outlook for SA.
No surprise really given the very positive H1 trading update yesterday.
BANK OF AMERICA RAISES BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PRICE TARGET TO 3,600 (3,500) PENCE - 'BUY'
I think some people are placing too much emphasis on ‘the right thing to do’ and therefor the SP is going up. Yes the vaccination programme is working, yes cases are much lower now. Yes our neighbours and the US are in a similar position to some extent. I do believe the SP will go up in the medium term, later this year, but I fear the SP is on the way down after this afternoon’s announcement.
Why? Because of the political agenda. At the end of the day the SP will be driven by the green list in the short term. Whilst the bad news is a rumour, there is enough noise around to suggest the green list is not going to allow BA to operate many more routes.
My opinion, and we are all entitled to one!, is that the SP is going lower tomorrow and we will need to wait a while longer for positive green list news. When that comes I can see a healthy increase in the SP. So for me it depends on how you want to trade this situation.
***Note... sometimes bad news actually helps the SP, how many times have we seen that and been baffled?
My prediction.. sub 200 tomorrow.
Overall I’m very positive about this stock. I’ve traded IAG for years and even used to have the BA shareholder discount (do you remember that?).
My concern is more about the short term news not being positive and things taking longer to open up such as Spain and the US. I.e. extreme caution being exercised by number 10.
I have no doubt these will trade upwards of 220 this year, just not sure when!
Well it finally reached 204.50 (my target) so I’ve traded out for a nice profit.
If I was confident of good news to come in terms of the green list announcement I would have moved my target higher... but I’m far from confident. It just feels the adjustment to the green list will be minimal and I can see the SP back at 200 or below at that point.
Good luck to everyone else whatever your position.
Where do you think the SP will be by Friday evening? Let’s see who gets closest so you can’t predict a range.. must be a firm single price prediction. Some justification why you chose that price too would be fun (when we look back!).
My prediction is 204.50
Justification: I feel the news over the weekend has been generally positive in terms of the Indian variant impact and the vaccine efficacy. Han**** suggesting the lifting of lockdown may still be on track. The new list of green countries should be published the following week so rumours will start surfacing more this week such as the Greek islands, Spanish islands, Malta etc.
An alternative view is that if IAG wasn’t buying shares yesterday the SP could have fallen further.
Can see this moving sideways in the 190-195 range until more countries added to the green list of if Downing Street rhetoric stops treating Amber countries as Red.
On a positive note, the SP seems to be holding well despite the doom and gloom so hopefully
we just need some positive news to see it go higher. I.e. the negative news is already baked in.
Jumped off at 2797.. very pleased with that. Still have the ones in my ISA.
GL all.
Prices seemed the freeze at 2793 for about ten minutes with bid of 2932 and ask of 2653.
Then when the freeze lifted it was 2770.
Glitch, volatility??
2,793.00
Bid:
2,932.50
Ask:
2,653.50
Change:
31.50 (1.14%)
Hi. I have two bundles of shares. One bundle in my ISA which average about £25 and are there as part of my income plan for retirement. These ones i don’t really trade.
The second bundle are outside of my ISA and these I do trade maybe three of four times a year (trying to predict peaks and troughs) and the last trade I did on these were in the run up to the results in January. I paid just under £27. Obviously the results were not well received and the SP dropped sharply. I’m in a position now to be able trade out with a small profit. If it gets to £28 I’ll probably do that and look to pick up lower later in the year.
Better returns than an annuity!
I’m hoping for a steady rise towards £28 in the next week.
Guidance was given before Xmas. BATS delivered (slightly over delivered) today. Increased divi. Road ahead looks positive. What news was the market expecting today that would not have resulted in such a drop? What has changed negatively overnight to cause the drop? Very odd.
Guys.. be careful out there. I made a huge mistake buying these at about £3 last year. Watched them slowly decline with one poor update after another. Held on hoping they would recover. They must be too cheap.. anyone selling is crazy... they will recover tomorrow. I eventually sold around March I think for £2 and less. Since that sickening moment I immediately felt better after writing the loss off.. onwards and upwards attitude!
I’m seeing the same poor results, the same comments on here about them being too cheap and it’s all the fault of the shorters. The same comments about the bounce back in price tomorrow. The same comments about buying more to lower your average price.
Have a look through the old forum comments after company updates during the last 12 months. Look at the 12 month chart. Look ahead at what could go wrong is this was to slip towards 150p (drop out of the FTSE250). Remember the professional shorters are rarely wrong whether you agree with their tactics or not.
As always you make your own decisions so good luck all.
Arsenal... thing is you have to draw a line at some point. Just look back at the previous posts on here (including mine). It will all be ok, the bounce is coming. The shares are heading higher. This has been said all the way from 300p down to today�s 195p.at some point you just need to draw a line. 200p was my mental stop loss after the January reaction to the update and I have sold just below that. I cannot afford to watch my stake reduce even further than it has. The CARD shares I have in my ISA will stay there as they still fit in with my long term growth and income strategy. But the other bulk of shares I held outside of my ISA were or shorter term trading and simply dwindling away in value. Personally I think these shares should rebound quite well... but I�m not convinced that will happen. The market doesn�t seem to like the reduced profit margin outlook. It�s all a gamble. I have been burnt enough with these. Sticking to me stop loss. GLA..... really!
I give up. I have sold for a huge loss. Yes this share is oversold but the more I hang on in there, the more the SP just drops away for whatever reason. Still have quite a number of CARD left in my ISA which I will keep for the long term. I have been with this share since ex Divi. It stands me 295p. Even after the January trading update I could have sold for 220-230p but I kept holding waiting for the bounce that has never come. I have no idea where this share will end up this year... I very much doubt it will end up at 250p plus. I can see it trading at 180-200 range... but what do I know? This is one share that I�ve got seriously wrong. Good luck to everyone else... whatever your position.
Thanks Badger, that�s interesting. Do we know when CARD will confirm their intentions for the special divi? Is it the full year results in April or the H1 in September? I have looked back at previous but can see references in both full and half year. So specifically, when would they give guidance on the next special divi?
Is there a way to see if Neil Woodford is still holding hopes 5% or whether he has offloaded? So much for the bounce. Never happened and I still own my shares. Wish I didn�t though to be honest. It�s all very well to say these are a great share blah blah but we were saying that at 300p and look where it is now. For my part I�m looking at a serious loss. Not seeing much in the way of support coming from the company either... very quiet. Anyone know why the trading update was two weeks earlier than expected? Was there a leak? The volumes spiked the day before the trading update I noticed.
Peel Hunt unimpressed. Cut target from 400p to 240p with a pretty negative view. Appears I�m not the only one fed up and with fresh doubts. Reason I�m being negative, and believe me I am very overweight on CARD, is where is the nex good news coming from? Highly unlikely to be the full year report in a few months... Even if sentiment is already priced in. Minimum wages are going to persist. FX is a gamble and even if the dollar weakens it will help that much in short term. I agree with much of Peel Hunts new analysis I�m afraid. However looking for a short term bounce and GLA!
You could have said that when it dropped from 350 to under 300 last September. Catching a falling knife?? My plan is to see if these recover a little bit (250?) and then dump the lot and take the loss and move on. I wonder how Niel Woodward is feeling this morning?