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Keeptofacts, why is it when someone asks a valid question on this board that is not a ramp, you just do your normal and accuse them of deramping. Do you not think that given that normally a share price normally increases during drilling that given what happened with T9, that when the share price is exhibiting the same pattern then asking whether there is another " leak" is not a reasonable question.
Just for the record, I am certainly not a deramper. I hold 240k shares and have put my life savings into this. It is just with all that has happened over the past 6 months I have become very disallusioned with trading plans and constant dangling of carrots, especially, the GSA, when it seems there was never a chance that we were going to her that 6 months ago when the carrot dangling started.
Who is saying the letter if fake, I certainly am not.
All I am saying is that the abrupt way is which the letter ends suggests to me that the letter has been chopped and that maybe they didn't want to release the full letter.
Has anybody seen Crudehope and JP in the same room together at the same time? The reason I ask because when I first started to follow this board when I saw the way that Crudehope described JP, I thought to myself, Superman and Clarke Kent!!
Shpunken, the calculation of the £1.50 per 1 TCF has been bandied about for some time. The subtlety first brought up be Fellrunner I think is that it is 1TCF to sound. When I became aware of this I emailed JP who directed my email to JJ. We subsequently had a telephone call where he confirmed that it was indeed 1TCF to sound. ie, the TE5 Horst of .65 TCF is .31 TCF to sound at £1.50 per TCF and a recovery rate 50% is 23p.
I did the calculation there and then and when I said that this was only 23p he said that sounds about right. He obviously knew the figure.
Crude,i have spoken to JJ who about the £1.50 per 1TCF debacle and he confirmed that the £1.50 per 1 TCF is 1TCF to sound and therefore the TE5 Horst has to be discounted by 47.5%.
I calculated the figure there and then and when I told him that this equals 23p for the TE5 Horst the said that seems about right.
What information do you have to refute this?
Guys, I am over £100k down at the minute and so I can understand people's utter frustration. However, we do not know what is going on behind the scene at the moment. We don't know if a deal is already in place. We do not know the results of TE10. We do not know the location TE11 and its subsequent result.
If it turns out a negative on all of the above then surely that is the time to direct all this negativity to JP et al.
Meanwhile, for the sake of our own sanity, is it not just best to sit back and let them get on with it.
Unfortunately for me until last week I thought that the £1.50 per TCF was for sound. This was valuing T5 Horst at about 48p. I didn't pick up the subtle difference between £1.50 per TCF and £1.50 per TCF to sound. I think quite a few other posters here didn't realise it either.
The .65 is what is known as gas in place (GOIP). The recovery factor which is used on this is 50%, which equates to .325. Of this figure Sound is entitled to 47.5%. So at £1.50 per 1TCF to Sound(important part is "to Sound"), this equates to 23p.
You would imagine a potential purchaser would want some further discount as well.
Hi Shaun, what makes you think the the true valuation is way north of here? I had a chat with JJ yesterday and he confirmed that the £1.50 per 1TCF is actually one TCF attributable to sound, ie the .65 at the T5 Horst has to be discounted by 47.5%. I wish I had have known this a few months ago.
I have been emailing James yesterday about this £1.50 per 1 TCF debacle.
I got an email from JJ this morning to state that "1TCF of gas recoverable for sound is worth approximately £1.50.
Why recoverable for sound and not just recoverable.
I think from that reply that Fellrunner is right, we have to apply the 47.5% discount.
I wish I had have known this a few weeks ago
I agree Shpunken, we need communication with the team but I think it might be a bit to early for a CC as people's emotions still seem to be quite high (understandably so) but a CC could descend into a shouting match and that's not really what we need.
Now is a time when cool heads are required. I am sure that the team are as pissed off with the results of TE9 as we all are. I would think that internally there is a lot going on to try to understand why the seismic interpretation was so wrong. This will take a bit of time but I have no doubt that JP will have the balls to call a cc of fireside chat or whatever you want to call it sooner rather than later.
I also think that it is imperative that he remains at the helm otherwise this share will surely crash.