Member Info for DrPatience

He has no inside information. 100%

I very much doubt he tumbled out of bed yesterday, saw the RNS and decided to sell, just like that.

Yesterday we had much better clarity vs the days before, at least we know we stand wrt the debt.

Outcome is still binary, as we have known since the loss of Pensacola. Nothing new there.

Given the generally low volumes, that's one hell of a sale in one transaction...6.4% of the company. Sale may have nothing to do with Deltic itself; everybody has their own investment context and decisions. I guess we will know soon, RNS should explain presumably in due course.

Good for those buying in!

Tuscany, what was said please?

They are drilling for a fact and keep going which means something. Outcome might be high risk and most likely binary, but from a gambling perspective the odds are very good vs upside. Geologically it has very good prospects and may surprise us in terms of size.

Not for the faint hearted though. Capital 100% at risk 😎

Purdey, yes, you are right, but frankly as expected and at least we know the Pensacola debt is capped.

The bottomline is this:

- If Selene goes well and we can farm out/monetise, then we are good. Shares then worth a lot more than the current price.

- If the Selene drill is no good => it's pretty much game over. Shares worth very little or nothing.

It really is quite binary. I am just going to ride it out. We should know later this year. Good punt level I think, but everybody should make their own risk assessment.

Given today's RNS, it might well have been leakage of info.

Today's RNS gives a lot of clarity, at least we know whete we stand and can move forward.

Village clown Ed Milliband (et al) is the wild card. Just keep or increase taxes and there will be no taxes. Simples! Wtf.

I am so glad we are looking overseas!

Eviking, ending 🇺🇦 war is obviously good, but why is that good for Glen? Just wondering what the thought process is!? Thanks!

Volatility is good for the trading division. Will demand for copper/metals and coal etc really improve if the war stops?

A strong China economy and the energy transition in general are both super important no doubt.

No volume at all, so could also be a random punt. Any buy or sell with this volume will shift price up or down.

Without news it means close to nothing.

Could be leakage also, of course, but less likely in my view, TBC!

Kind of weird, what's really new?

China the same (the perceived problem child)

Fed move as expected more or less

Long term demand should be good but not changed since yesterday.

No divs here until poss next year.

Maybe just a realisation that the sp has been unfairly suppressed.

USD should come down, which should be a benefit for commodities, but again nothing new.

Any thoughts on where the sp "should" be?

We are close to many of the broker targets, but as we saw with RR, they have been so wrong and catching up with the market...upgrade after upgrade.

I only have a smallish holding, so not spent a lot of time, but at a glance, presumably they ought to get back to pre-covid numbers at some point, so 300-400p target range?

Hear! Hear!

I am all for energy transition but right now there is a need for gas, if nothing else for national energy security!!

LivingtheDream, you are spot on. Unfortunately, a lot of investors have voted with their feet based on the dividend being low, but giving no credit the huge investments being made. Good entry level here in my view.

With Pensacola I would have said 100p+ for 2 good drills. Now, with everybody feeling pretty sore in a certain place, I think a good drill for Selene is 35-40p. Bad drill 0p (literally worthless as they will run out cash and only have a couple of small assets left). The probability of a good drill is fairly high. So 10p now kind of hangs together. It's a waiting game. If a good drill is the outcome and you wait too long, then you miss the boat.

Just my take.

Rooster, I am also cautiously optimistic, but the risks are there and it's not for everyone. Fingers crossed, didn't mean to sound overly negative.

Rooster, I am with you. The only problem is between now and actually reaching profitability even with a decent lender/loan restructuring. Cash could actually run out within months as far as I could work out. If resolved, then of course this is the bargain of the year. If not, it's a total loss as the shareholders will be wiped. Pretty binary!

Rooster, I am a fan, but running out of cash is imminent unless we hear otherwise and soon.

Exploration, thanks all good info and thoughts!

In reality we are in the hands of Shell's (very capable) hands. I presume they will update when possible.

Looney EM is by far the biggest threat out there, but hopefully he will be reined in towards a more balanced approach!!! Lower tier clown, but not to be completely ignored.

Purdey, I am no geologist, but in a nutshell, it was considered a bad drill and abandoned back some 35 years ago. Improved analysis etc - really the forte of the Deltic team - has shown the conclusion was wrong. Hence where we are now.

From latest Deltic corporate presentation:

">Initial well 48/08b-2 proved gas presence but encountered unusually poor quality, fractured Leman Sst reservoir and challenged the operator's structural models leading to project abandonment

>Selene has been unlocked by improved 3D imaging (revealed presence of major fault, 2008), depth conversion technologies (structural understanding, 2013) and improved infrastructure access has transformed a deemed failure into a high impact low risk appraisal project"

Spike, if we have a good drill, Delt needs to monetise.

Delt is all about exploration, not production in my view. Very different ballgame!

We need strategic clarity for sure. What's next after Selene??

Brightstone: this is an almost fixed cost business up to a lot more samples than they currently process. Once they reach breakeven - within sight - everything goes to the bottomline and loans can be cleared, if needed.

Cash flow is THE main short term challenge, but I gather they have a plan. TBC, hence why you can buy the share at bargain prices!!

Andsoforth, re your comment below, I agree. Solid, but the big improvements done by the CEO are pretty much complete. Having said that, even just performing steadily like now, assuming interest rates will come down, I feel 550p is fairly realistic. Takeover also welcome!!

"Solid indeed, and improvements across the board. However, the rate of improvement has slowed. Any acceleration will have to come through acquisitions. The CEO's statement more or less admits this."