#BAUXIN MATCH..11 Jul 2014 23:13
I found this in the FT paper (4/7/14), regarding earnings of RIO, and what we investors have to remember:
'...earlier in 2014, police in Mexico seized 120,000 tons from a drug cartel. It was enough material to warp the minds of billion ppl 900 times over - if the haul had been cocaine, not iron ore...
In short, metal bulky to move. Iron ore lucrative to ship to China, even for the Knights cartel. Then big miners increased production, taking out costs - swamping market and lowering prices. That increased supply will in turn push up ship rates.
Yet these higher freight rates & lower iron ore prices are not pushing down RIO sp, despite iron ore providing 4/5 of EPS. Sheer cost cuts & volume might protect RIO. Rio second biggest producer ( VALE is top I believe ).
But if iron ore remains weak, this is time for shareholders to demand more from a lighter metal where RIO is also 2nd, but where they been saddled with losses for yrs: ALU. RIO produced 3.5m tons in 2013. It plans to produce 100 times as much iron ore from Western Australian mines. But, ALU business is more complicated. Mined bauxite is refined into alumina before being smelled. Capacity is hard to shut when prices drop - as in last decade of deja vu oversupply.
Rio's purchase of Alcon in 2007 for $39bn exemplified flaw. This unit has been IGNORED by market at present. But, costs have drastically fallen, goods sold were below $10bn last yrs versus $12bn in 2011.
DB analysts think the unit will have $2bn free cash flow in 3yrs, compared with $2.2bn for RIO as a whole in 2013!, AND THAT IT'S CONTRIBUTION to group earnings will rise to a tenth...
That will lead investors in RIO to look past iron ore, FOR ONCE. THEY should look at margins but at the returns RIO will promise when it starts building new production cap. Bauxite has recovered especially fast. The trick will be ensuring RIO and others do not produce even more than the market needs, once again.
Over n out...
I hold 517 shares in RIO ..