RE: Notes from impressive presentation25 Nov 2024 12:04
Thanks for highlighting the attractions of Croma, lot of good things - low PE and growth strategy, and on the face of it looks an excellent investment. . However, I'm concerned by :
1) The low ROCE, based on last years accounts it is sub 10%. They say they are buying businesses on 15% - great, but there is no margin for execution risk. They say that excluding the Property this will rise to 40% - but isn't this naive - they are buying the property and tying capital up so it very much needs to be included !
2) If they buy say 5 new businesses a year it won't be long before they become a property company that does security ! Not their skill set. They will also need a very good property manager - costs will rise. Concerns re property ownership was dismissed in the presentation saying if necessary they can borrow against the property - but that wasn't the point - why do they want to own rather than lease - concerning that they didnt seem to understand the point let alone have an answer.
3) An acquisition strategy is fine but you need the capabilities on the Board to execute well, with just the 2 of them they seem very light in this area and don't have any relevant previous experience
So until convinced otherwise I won't be investing - which is a shame since they obviously know the industry very well and have a great opportunity to establish a national brand - but I fear they are going to mess it up since its not their skill set.
I would really appreciate your thoughts on the above . Thanks