RE: A simplistic view of Alien18 Mar 2026 22:59
wents, i disagree, all depends on what margins are being had for silver at the time. if its selling for $150 and margins of $100 as we expect, then mining 1moz pa will give $100m margin to the jv. $30m to ufo. the royalty on the other hand would give $3m to ufo. so in just 6 months of 30%, ufo could earn more than 6 years of royalty. under these numbers and with such a small payback, no ufo bod can justify going down the royalty route. they risk jeopardising their reputation, family name, career and a prison sentence and shareholders just wouldn't allow it either.
therefore, they'll either fund the 30% or they'll renegotiate a revised royalty of closer to 10% for example.
as for han****, if the intention was to run down the 2028 clock then why did they spend £300k on legal bills back in 2024 and why have they been holding ongoing discussions with potential partners for the last 2-3 years. there are clearly stoppers to this deal but 2028 isn't it imo.
placing? £2m in the bank and £2m in warrants + 30.5m wce shares and 47m gre shares. plenty of liquidity. only cash we need is for han**** and if we acquire other tenements, they'll take years to absorb our cash. the only placings that will be required going forward will be for production well north of 0.5p, not for exploration as we've been used to. this is the big change i've been banging on about. a few on here keep wanting to look back 5 years though to predict the next step.
on bruce, who knows what he'll be doing in 8 months time. ufo seems a nice cushy job for a md. 2 partners looking after 2 projects. he only has to look after han**** and once we have revenues next year, he'll have a blank cheque to satisfy his exploration needs. he may just want to stick around.
safe to say we disagree but i appreciate you bringing logic and a reasoned argument to the table. unlike some of the numps on here.