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BV, WG may look at Angs from a different angle but at least he/she provides facts to support their opinions and brings balance. This actually encourages research and stimulates thought so I am actually happy to have the likes of WG and Hits here. I have come across many "trolls" on other boards that can't even be bothered with facts and just land one liners like 'sp is going down, sell now'. Thankfully we don't appear to have any of those here although we do have 1 or 2 of the opposite.
I personally have had more thought stimulation from one of WG posts than I have from all of yours since I've been here so that in itself is proof that it's not all about everyone being positive. I'm not interested in being a part of a ramp orgy.
Mmmmm, with only 4 days until the end of the September quarter, how are we getting on against the to do list from June.
Ongoing work
Planned activities from the IOCA development team during the September quarter include:
• Planned geotechnical ground assessment of access road and intersection
• Progress MRWA intersection design
• Water bore drilling
• Finalise crushing & screening plant flowsheet design and plant selection
• Finalise CAPEX and OPEX inputs, including pricing for intersection, haul road, mining, haulage and site establishment
• Secure offtake agreement and funding for early works
• Further resource drilling
• Upgrade JORC Resource, including maiden measured and/or indicated resources to support a maiden mining reserves
The Company looks forward to updating the market in the coming months on the progress of the Han**** Project and continues to be on track to be shovel ready in early 2023.
EA, as I said quite clearly, I had not bothered to look into the current oil situation as that is about 5% of the interest here. I did quite clearly confess to that.
From your post earlier:
WG818 you maths way out again
21 May to 13 July is 21 days x 5 =105 barells.
Nice try Einstein lol.
End of post.
I get it to be 54 days so just a quick question. Are we only operating the Brockham site 3 days per week. That's a disgrace if so. Get it pumping 24/7. All the stop starting must be costing a fortune. Sort it out GL.
BV, you've taken my humour literally. You wouldn't take 123. You'd fill it up to the max. It's a photo, could be of any truck, anywhere at any time for all I know. I'm certainly not going to be reading anything into it. I'm not really fussed tbh. Oil is flowing and it's covering the overheads so I'm happy with that. GL said 50 barrels are flowing and the data everyone is concerning themselves with is 3-4 months out of date so why everyone is getting panties in a twist over whether it's 5 or 50 I don't know.
According to the interims we generated £27k in oil. At call it £100/ barrel that's 270 barrels. I've not paid much attention to the oil tbh. What was the date we had 400 barrels in stock?
Agreed Bendog, imo unless you need the cash it's a hold and ride out the storm as once the 2nd compressor lands they'll be a step up in the SP with a new base formed. It will take some patience but only 3 months to the end of the year. Hopefully the sidetrack will be a success, if it is then sentiment will take this high from here. Hold but it's only opinion and not advice.
BV the new Mr Friday night. I'm happy to go with GL's take on things but If by a serious investor you mean trusting a newby who has reviewed a still shot of a tanker and is telling you that with how far that suspension is down then the regulated reported figures must have been mistyped and that the 5 is missing a 0 and should be 50. If that's what you mean by serious investor then we do differ somewhat. Good luck with your investing.
Oh lighten up BV, the guys saying that a regulated sites figures are wrong because he can tell the compression of the rear suspension of a tanker from a still shot. Now be honest. If that was a troll saying that you'd still be rolling round the floor.
I used an advance measurement software programme on the photo of the truck in question and it's rear end was 24cm off the ground. Having collaborated this with the truck manufacturers specifications for that make and model I can confirm there was definitely 123 barrels in that truck.
Tongue in cheek emoji.
Steve, my and survivor have history so he'll understand it's just swings and roundabouts. JDW is a study case for me. I've done the analysis on the accounts and believe it is in a really difficult stage with current macros being against it for the last 3 years. I'm watching and monitoring to see how it unfolds but Survivor gives as good as he gets on other shares so he'll be fine.
To be fair EA, I went to great length to support my calculations and opinions. This allows you to pick them to pieces and return with your own thoughts and arguments.
Again, these calculations are just to show that the 2nd compressor is definitely needed imo. I believe/hope GL will be right and we'll have it by the end of the year but there are few dead certs on AIM so we have to be mindful of that.
Not too concerned with the sidetrack although it would be a huge bonus if we get it.
Yanis, I do appreciate that my attitude was condescending towards a few posters in here and I can say that what I returned was a reflection of what I received but it's certainly not how I conduct myself during normal debates.
I have no agenda here. I am invested as most others. I will continue to challenge anyone posting anything I don't agree with whether they are deemed pro Angus or against Angs although I will aim to keep it more professional for sure
My only debate with you was that 5.5 wouldn't cut it as we approached Q1 and that we would for sure need the 2nd compressor to be comfortable. That was my point. We still seem to disagree on this point.
I've never disagreed with you on what the 2nd compressor or sidetrack will bring if/when they are brought on line. That is indisputable.
We know the hedge averages 5.24 in Q4 so anything less than that means no unhedged revenue. If we get 5.5 so an unhedged amount of 0.26 that's 24mscf unhedged for Q4 or 259k therms. At £2.50 thats £650k unhedged revenue and £2.75m hedged revenue. Total £3.4m.
I'm not sure on the current cash position but I do know that 17p/t is the op cost so for the 5.5m therms we generate in Q4 there's almost £1m in cost. I'll ignore admin and oil and condensate will cover those as per GL. So £3.4m rev minus £1m cost is £2.4m ontop of our cash position at 30 SEP. Don't know this but appreciate we have to pay £1.5m back for the loan. We also have the cost to install the 2nd compressor and the sidetrack so I'm assuming we won't be flooded with cash come 1st Jan23.
In Jan23 we hedge 5.19mscf/D. So running at 5 will clearly leave us needing to find cash from our Jan 1st cash pile. If we run at 5.5 then great but again the unhedged amount is just 0.31 so 104k therms at £3 gives us £312k unhedged revenue + £910k hedged so call it £1.2m revenue. Op cost will be about £310k so Jan profit of £900k. I don't know the terms of the deferred hedge from Jul/August but as you say it's worth c £8.4m or £2.8m per month. So again, the shortfall for Jan is £1.9m which we have to find from our Jan 1st cash balance.
There's likely to be a 25% windfall tax bill to pay probably some time in Q1 that will need to be paid too.
In Feb, we need to hedge 5.75 so at 5.5 that's a shortfall of 0.25 or 76k therms at £3 is £228k. The hedge will generate 1.7m therms or £900k revenue. So £670k net revenue. £300k op costs leaves us with £370k profit. Again we'll have to dip into our Jan 1st cash pile to cover the £2.8m deferred amount from Jul/Aug. Now I don't know how much the Jan 1st cash pile is but to cover just Jan and Feb alone you'll need at least £1.9m for Jan, £2.4m for Feb and probably £1.9m for March + any tax payment. So £6.2m cash required on 1st Jan to cover Q1. Obviously, we'll need more than that as a buffer say £1.5m so that £7.7m.
Q4 will only generate £2.4m exc any capex costs so I genuinely think 5-5.5 just isn't enough. Apologies for the lengthy post.