RE: Fundamentals31 Jan 2026 08:59
Chris
IMV Munni Munni not being built in the early-2000s wasn’t a geology failure. Under Helix, Lonmin (a top-tier PGM major) funded serious work: resource definition, metallurgy and early feasibility concepts. The project stalled because the timing was wrong, not because the asset was bad.
Back then:
* PGM prices turned down (especially palladium after Russian supply re-entered the market).
* The project was capital-intensive for its grade profile.
* Lonmin refocused capital on South African brownfields, where they already had plants and sunk capex.
Fast-forward to today, and the reason majors still aren’t jumping in yet is structural, not negative:
* Munni Munni still sits on a historical (non-JORC 2012) resource.
* Majors don’t JV off historic resources – they wait for modern JORC, fresh metallurgy and a clear development concept.
* PGM projects require large concentrator capex, so majors want the junior to de-risk first.
That’s exactly what GRE is doing now:
upgrade to JORC (2012), validate metallurgy, and only then test partner interest. Majors typically appear 'after' this step, not before.
Imo Munni Munni didn’t fail in Lonmin’s day – it failed the “why now?” test. The same applies today: majors aren’t ignoring it, they’re waiting for the next de-risking milestone.
UFO didn't have the credibility or resource to de risk MM so they partnered with someone who has. Also, the location of the Whundo project currently owned by GRE was a logical step in why gre chose MM and why ufo chose gre. A very good deal for ufo and I'll explain my long term view on MM in the next post.