Member Info for DRB83

What are we hoping to learn from the Webinar next week?

Thanks to the research on here we have a pretty good handle on the flow rates 5-6

GL has already told us that the plan is to get the 2nd compressor online by end of year

It's too early for any substantial news on the sidetrack

We already expect the September hedge to have been exceeded

We already know what is required to meet the Q4 hedge.

Maybe an update on our debt position but I'm not expecting that. F

Possibly an update on the oil flow but hasn't he already told us 50 and 50.

Is the webinar more about confirming what we already know or are others i.e LTH's expecting something else?

If only it was that simple byp. Buy today, it drops 10% then the dead cat bounce comes and if your lucky it gets back to your buy in price. That's the problem with downtrend shares. I'm sure the trend will turn at some point.

Speak with Donald Tramp. She'll tell you exactly when to buy and sell. It will be too late of course by the time she divulges but at least you'll know when you should've bought and sold.

Today's gas price won't really benefit Angs too much. The January price will, hopefully anyway. The gas price is way too volatile and it's way too soon for the market to have any confidence of what the January prices will be. Just imo.

What's the point in having £11m in shares if you can't touch it. If his sell had anything to do with the business I'm sure he would have sold many more. There's a hundred reasons why a director may sell and I'm not concerned whilst it's only small quantities.

I seriously doubt he thought he would derisk 0.14% of his portfolio. It's like me taking a few quid out.

I guess the £66m tax payment wouldn't have been factored into any cash forecasts done on here so that has to be factored in.

Wolfy, the chairman you refer to just bought 50m shares and issued millions more to the bod at 60%-160% north of here. They obviously feel that the SP will be higher than it is now and they know more than anyone.

AA are interested in the iron ore and they'll know our breakeven point so will know $100/t is the minimum UFO want and they're still interested. No point in negotiating with us for less than $100 as the financials just won't work, but they're still interested so let's see what arrangements we can make. Maybe we use Brockman/Vivash as leverage to get a good hedge on our Iron.

Lots of possibilities available. I'd rather be in than out at this stage. Each to their own.

AA is likely to end this argument very soon. If they want our iron ore, and all of it and want to hedge it at $100/t then I don't really care what the global demand for iron ore turns out to be. All recessions come to an end and usually the stimulus is infrastructure that iron ore is a huge part. China will fix it's property market, Russia will accept defeat and the huge Ukrainian rebuild will commence.

All we need for now is a 3 year deal on our DSO iron ore @ $100.

The guys got 545m shares. Selling 750k or 0.14% of his holding as absolutely nothing to do with a lack of belief in the company.

In all fairness, unless you're an author or an English teacher I don't think most people would have noticed.

Thanks Ocelot. How do we know which month contract we a fulfilling. It would be nice to be supplying into the Jan23 contracts but I've not heard anything from GL on this so was just assuming we were feeding the current market.

There's clearly risks to the iron ore demand coming out of China. That can not be ignored however, there is a valid argument that the large majority of iron ore is significantly sub standard to what we possess. The likes of Rio and AA may be looking for deposits of 62%+ to help make their grade more appealing Vs the competition. This can not be simply overlooked. China are pushing the green future so it would go against all that if they started buying in lower grade iron ore to save on costs Vs higher grade. Demand may drop but imo it will impact <40% first, the <50%, then <60% and with any luck won't effect demand on >60% too much as not only will China want it direct but the big boys Rio and AA will want it too.

Remember, we only need a hedge of $100/t to generate $25m post tax profits pa for the next 3 years. That will bring a significant step change to the UFO SP and give us time and security to unlock the other 4 company making assets. Time and security are not luxeries you often see on AIM.

I'm seeing £2.70 ish. Where are you getting £4.20 from. Can you post a link please.

Expectations should be set at no more than 6 and probably a little less for the average of the one compressor. The average for Q4 is 5.24 so if we can stabilise 5.5+ then great we'll be generating some unhedged funds which are currently ranging between 4-6 times more valuable than the hedge.

By all means hope for 6+ but in terms of managing expectations 5.5 should be the benchmark imo.

Baits, You may have a point regarding new investors. I was drawn here off the back of SFB. This is where the near term value sits and it's the key to unlocking the other projects imv. With the 2nd compressor in place then any fears around cashflow and placings will be put to bed as that alone could generate £40m profit pa. If the sidetrack comes good then again even more profit. Just a case of being patient here and hoping all goes well with the plans.

Great set of results. In summary:

Mcap £990m
Cash £500m
EV £490m
H1 profit after tax £116m
H2 forecast profit after tax c £200m (if not more)
FY22 forecast profit £316m
H123 forecast profit say £200m
Profit to Jun23 = £516m

So buying at today's prices your investment will pay for itself in around 12 months. Sounds like a win to me.

Listen to Donald Tramp everyone. She sells the very top and buys the very bottom every time. Even when the SP rises 30% out of nowhere and shes been banging the 50p drum, secretly she buys 60 seconds before the rise and then when everyone is trying to second guess what is driving the rise she doesn't hang about, somehow she calculates that the top is in and sells everything she has making an absolute fortune. She's an absolute wizard. Obviously I or she can't prove any of this but she seems like a real genuine honest character so I believe her anyway. Absolute wizard.

Tongue in cheek emoji

Can't remember the last time I reported a post personally but someone clearly took offence. Not surprising really. Unfortunately I never got to see it but I'm sure I wouldn't have learned anything from it that I didn't already know. Anyway, I'll leave you to calm down.

I see BV posted something at 9:47 but it seems to have disappeared. I can only imagine it was more filth that can't be repeated so I won't ask.

C2, of course I'm expecting it to happen and it's clear the bod are too. Otherwise, why issue them.

Chris, in order for them to form a lifestyle from those options the SP would have to be between 50% and 160% higher than today so I'm not sure your 2 word post means anything.