Member Info for Drake14

More good news, lower share price. The enigma of the week!

The fact is that nobody on this board knows what will happen in the short term; otherwise they would all be extremely rich. That said, new housing is still needed, and someone has to build it. Therefore, companies with healthy balance sheets are more likely to survive adverse conditions such as war and other macroeconomic shocks. In the long run, the trend is still upward, and while waiting for that to materialise, a reasonable yield helps keep investors satisfied.

WPP’s current operating margin (~3.3%) and net margin (~2.5%) remain well below top global peers, where operating margins are typically in the low-to-mid teens. This gap represents a clear value-creation opportunity. On ~£14.7bn of revenue, a +100 bps improvement in operating margin would add roughly £110m in net profit, equivalent to ~+10–12p EPS. A +300 bps improvement would translate into ~£330m net, or ~+30–35p EPS.

Margin expansion should therefore be a top priority for the new CEO, as even modest execution could deliver disproportionate EPS growth and materially improve shareholder returns.

Is anyone else smelling a short squeeze on Persimmon? PSN is holding the 1,400p level like a champ despite the bears' best efforts. They’ve been betting against the UK housing recovery, but the latest completion numbers just pulled the rug out. I’m wondering which hedge fund is going to be the first to cave and cover. When the buy-backs start, this could gap up to 1,500p+ very quickly.

Keep going and sooner or later those investments will show up in the SP?

Exactly, on top of that, short sellers will need to cover, potentially amplifying the upside.

Shorts likely have stops clustered around 1,371 on the conservative side, with another pocket around 1,419. A clean sweep of those levels should trigger a sharp squeeze higher in the SP.

Because the market had already factored in a lot of good news.

If the Supreme Court blocks the tariffs on Swiss watch imports, it could be a strong catalyst for Watches of Switzerland Group (WOSG). Such a ruling would remove a major risk to U.S. margins and protect pricing power across key luxury brands.

Given that the U.S. remains a core growth market for WOSG, a positive decision could reinforce investor confidence and drive the shares higher as sentiment toward the luxury retail sector improves.

The fact of the matter is that when she became CEO, the share price was around 1300, and just before the announcement of her departure, the price was roughly the same. In other words, throughout her entire tenure, shareholders were not rewarded. And let’s be clear — this has nothing to do with her being a woman; as shareholders, we simply expect growth in our investment.

Housing demand is here to stay, sooner or later, people always need homes. That’s why homebuilder stocks can be such a solid long-term play. They move in cycles, but if you’re patient, those generous dividends make it easy to sit back and wait for the next upswing!

Housing demand is here to stay, sooner or later, people always need homes. That’s why homebuilder stocks can be such a solid long-term play. They move in cycles, but if you’re patient, those generous dividends make it easy to sit back and wait for the next upswing!

Which one looks better?

Lets assume that will stand for a while!

Impact of Passing Full 39% Tariff (No Margin Shrink):

New Price: Rolex from $25,000 $34,750 (+39%).

EBIT Margin: ~9.1% (kept unchanged).

Key Results

At 0% drop in sales EBIT rises +39%.

At 20% drop in sales EBIT still up +11%.

Break-even point: At ~29% drop in sales, EBIT is flat vs. pre‑tariff.

Beyond 29% drop, EBIT begins to fall.

Conclusion

If U.S. demand falls less than 29%, WOSG should actually earn more profit despite the tariff, since wealthy buyers of Rolex tend to be relatively price inelastic. But if sales collapse by ~30% or more, the tariff turns into a net drag.

What do you think investors?

Watches will always sell and they will keep selling. These are luxury items for the wealthy, and in the U.S., with the stock market at record highs, the rich are richer than ever. Great opportunity to buy a good and simple business!

So let’s be clear: the price is not the problem. Demand in this segment doesn’t disappear because of tariffs — it just proves how resilient true luxury really is.

In my view, GSK may follow a similar trajectory to BAT. Following the change in CEO at BAT, the share price shifted direction despite the absence of any significant events to justify it, aside from the adjustment in the exchange rate! A new air was bred both within the company and across the investment community.

I can't believe how the market disregard the nice results!

Https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/jewelry-sales-outperform-us-luxury-spending-falters.html

How much of the short are still in place ?

How will the tariff impose by USA affect Burberry?