Member Info for Dr_Horrible

This page outlines the process in a flow chart. Section 2.

https://www.cirs-group.com/en/food/products-with-the-new-health-function-claims-are-being-possible-in-china

The BlueHat claims can have a large lead time. However, BH have most of the work for the testing required etc. Therefore, they only need the tail end of the process, so probably < 6 months.

There has never been a new functional claim previously, so no precedent. There is noting in the queue in front of it, as BH are the first to apply. We know that SAMR have been involved throughout, so their response timeline should be quite reasonable.

The whole lot has been submitted together. I am thinking it may take up to 3 months. Not sure what other people's views are.

It's a nice headline, 'major opportunity'.

All we know is what Duttaroy said that over £40m has been spent by companies on research into FF for regulatory approvals etc. can’t remember the details.

We thank goodness that you are not running the company. Spend over £40m on research, register global patents, regulatory approvals in many countries of the world and then sell it for about £42m before it’s actually got on its feet.

I still have a few concerns that float around my head.

1) how are PXS funding the production costs for major orders? They are probably going to need to raise funds for it. This could dampen otherwise positive news on orders.

2) IF may not give us good detail about orders, just fluffy nonsense like ‘transformational orders’. Orders after Sept will be reported in the full year results at the end of next Septembers, so we may not get the full picture until then.

3) When we receive transformational orders from China, we will not know the profit margin, so will need to wait until Sept next year to understand that too. PXS didn’t tell us that the DSM deal was rubbish, so we could wait a year to find out that the BH deal is rubbish too. I don’t think it will be, as PXS had other options at the time, so were in a better negotiating position. Time will tell.

4) DSM continue to be a bit rubbish and don’t make progress with FF for gut health. I’ve not seen anything coming out of DSM yet and we have no idea what they are actually doing. What does early commercialisation actually mean?

Saying all that, I’m still thinking of buying some more on Monday, because whatever happens PXS will move into profit and remain in profit with a massive growth potential and that will eventually be reflected in the share price.

Not sure how much the price will rise on the China news. There are no forecasts available at present. Just 'multiple of current sales values', which to an outsider (not us) means 'multiple' of a £250k - £300k 'revenue' that we previously received from DSM. People breezing over the company info may not get excited by that, understandably. Only people that follow PXS have an understanding of what's going on.

However, we should have a series of positive news now.

- Sept 29th - End of year results for 22/23 - expecting revenue increase (post lockdown boost H2 + Feb/March orders)

- Company funding update

- SAMR approval - we'll need to be notified rather quickly (whenever it be, but should be coming any time).

- BH Orders - this may be with SAMR notification, but may not be.

Dec 29th - Half year results - April to Sept (6 months full revenue from old DSM customers)

We may also get news around DSM and their 'truly global' companies.

By December we should have a much clearer picture than we do now and hopefully that will be reduce the risk of the shares and increase the price.

Good point Gix, and also being years ahead of the rest.

Keep in mind that approval will be forthcoming. Have a look at the approved ingredients list and associated health claims available in China, it is very limited. Then look at what is currently available in the heart health, for example by BH as being the market leader. Consider what it would mean for a new scientifically substantiated ingredient in that category. Then consider that BH say that FF will be used as a main ingredient for their heart health platform, and a large number of multi-national companies have agreed to commercialise FF via their distribution channel. Then consider that platelet aggregation is a risk factor highlighted in China 2030 and BH are addressing that. Then consider the state support that brings. Then consider the partnerships that BH have made to push it to the Chinese population. It’s still going to take time, but it’s looking good to me. But WTFDIK.

Everhopeful, IF is not trying to spin things, he has accurately communicated the news from China. That is exactly what the press release said.

BH and SAMR have worked together on the process. BH started the process well in advance of it being published to the industry. FF is the test case that has been used to drive the process change. I think there is little to no chance of it failing to get approval. It’s now just a case of SAMR exercising the approval process for the first time. My expectations for this are < 3 months, perhaps 4 to 6 weeks? No idea really, but that’s my feeling.

The best we can hope for in September is indication that we are forecasting profit this year and perhaps that that no additional funding is required.

8 months since the half years results. 5 months since the update on the transfer and finances.

This is the link I was reading:

https://data-eastmoney-com.translate.goog/notices/detail/300146/AN201611180110071912.html?_x_tr_sch=http&_x_tr_sl=zh-CN&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Gix,

The agreement was with DSM China.

"The framework agreements disclosed by the company in the last three years are all progressing normally. BY-HEALTH Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the "Company" or "BY-HEALTH") disclosed the "Announcement on Signing an Innovation Strategic Cooperation Agreement with DSM (China) Co., Ltd. Address: No. 476 Libing Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (4) Legal representative Person: Jiang Weiming'

That said, "DSM (China) Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DSM Group in China. It provides management services for more than 30 companies of DSM Group in China. DSM Group is based on science and technology, and is active in the fields of health, nutrition and materials on a global scale. "

We will never know, but I don't think we have any evidence that they were involved, or not involved. Other than I do recall they were mentioned on some China studies a few years back.

I don’t think we would know what they did or didn’t do, as DSM China are a management consulting firm. They would be working under the banner of BH.

PXS agreement :

Through this cooperation, the company can not only enhance the research and development and technical strength of new raw materials, new products, and new technologies, but also develop more new products in the fields of dietary supplements and functional foods, so as to reserve more competitive and innovative products for the company. Scarce products, which in turn stabilize the company's leading advantage in the industry.

BH & DSM China agreement 2016:

The company has reached an innovative strategic partnership with DSM. The two parties are committed to jointly developing scientific research and application of functional ingredients and functional dietary supplements in China, and jointly developing cardiovascular health based on "Fruitflow" New products, actively deploy new functional areas of health food, reserve more competitive and scarce products for BY-HEALTH, and help the company deploy the future personalized nutrition and health industry.

Do we have any evidence that DSM China are no longer involved?

They must be getting Kelloggs Fruit n' Fibre mixed up with Fruitflow.

The gut microbiota-derived metabolite trimethylamine-N-oxide (TMAO) is significantly associated with the risk of stroke, according to a study.

Specifically, higher TMAO levels resulted in a higher stroke risk, and stroke patients present with higher mean TMAO concentrations. High TMAO plasma levels also independently predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and all-cause mortality.

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, the investigators searched the databases of PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science from 1 January 2001 to 1 June 2021.

https://specialty.mims.com/topic/trimethylamine-n-oxide-levels-linked-to-stroke-risk#

No