Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Disease X coming. Do people know about CBR?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12551251/pandemic-disease-x-covid.html
Genuine question. What form of CBR therapy to be. Is it in the form of pills which can be taken orally (would be ideal) or is it an injection or is it something different? Would CBR be developed to cure common colds viruses (huge market) or is it too expensive for that. Initially anyway but with mass scale the cost would come down.
ok to have us shares in isa account
https://www.ii.co.uk/ii-accounts/isa/guides/buying-us-shares-in-uk-isa#:~:text=Can%20you%20buy%20and%20trade,you%20would%20with%20UK%20shares.
I had another careful read of company's RNS.
Our chimeric antigen receptor T-cells are developed to be a treatment for relapsed/refractory ("R/R") Acute Myeloid Leukaemia ("AML"), the most common form of leukaemia and one for which there are currently no fully effective treatments. AML has a five-year survival rate of less than 30% in adults and is currently treated using chemotherapy, rather than the potentially more effective form of therapy being developed by Hemogenyx Pharmaceuticals.
Key phrase: a treatment for relapsed/refractory ("R/R") Acute Myeloid Leukaemia ("AML"), the most common form of leukaemia and one for which there are currently no fully effective treatments.
Quite a few CAR T therapies already on market and / or being developed by big pharmas. What is different with HEMO CAR T? Genuine question. I hope some knowledgeable posters will help me out on this.
clr123 - please check out SAREUM and Hemogenyx
These valuations are from Mr MRR poster. Not my work as such. I just reposted here as asked for by WIP. Cannot take credit. I have been reading this BB for some time now and grateful to all knowledgeable posters on here. You know who you are. I am invested and waiting for the take-off.
Valuation Part 4 - SRA737
My view is that we will go into a triple combo trial for Anogenital. If Thoth is correct and the partner is Merck then we have potentially another blockbuster. Keytruda is worth $11bn pa to Merck. Assuming 737 worked with drugs like Keytruda and Gemcitibane (we already know it works with the latter) then as a minimum it adds 18p to the current SP. Get it past the post and its worth £1.22. We might only have 27% of 737 but it’s a long way down the track compared with 1801/2 and in my view will deliver the goods soon and at no cost to SAR. Win, win.
Valuation Part 5 - Aurora and SKiL
Aurora is on the back burner. The Chinese couldn’t solve the solubility issue but they did make progress. I suspect that in the right hands it could be cracked but whoever does it will need very deep pockets. On this basis I’m going to value Aurora at 4.9p based on it having potential in AML but at this stage being very high risk. This is not a current value but something I would put on the negotiating table in the event of a TO. SKIL again qualifies for a TO value and previously I put this at 6p. I’m going to stick with that but bear in mind if 1801/2 were to go the distance then SKIL could potentially deliver even more value.
Valuation Part 2 - TYK2 Immune
For this part of the valuation I’m going to concentrate on Lupus and RA. I regard these as the core indications for 1801 although if they work then other equally big indications (Sepsis) could quite easily come into play. However, by the time we’ve finished with Lupus/RA I doubt very much that we’ll be in control of the drugs. If we get 1801 into the fast track for Covid then the whole issue of toxicity goes away and the risk factor improves significantly. Previously I had modelled 1801 with a 95% discount. Getting it into Agile will IMO reduce this to 85%. Based on the cost of the cheapest drugs to treat Lupus (Prednisone) I would place a risk adjusted value for 1801 now (Post Agile but pre CTA) at 10p. On CTA it rises to 30p and on commercialisation the full value would be £2.02. For RA where the cost of treatment can be much higher these figures would quadruple as a minimum.
Valuation Part 3 - TYK2 Cancer
We don’t have a steer yet on which indication 1802 will go up against but I’m going to use NSCLC as a benchmark. Based on the cost in the UK of treating someone with NSCLC, multiplying this up to include the US and EU and then assuming 1802 would be beneficial in only 10% of cases gives a Pre CTA value of 14p which rises to 41p on going into trials and £2.70 on full commercialisation. Should it prove effective with Prostate and Cervical Cancers you could triple these figures. Add in something like Pancreatic where treatments are limited and you could quite easily double the figure again. As a caveat these would be full commercialisation figures 3-5 years out and would come at a significant cost. Getting just one indication sorted would be my expectation before SAR is acquired.
Valuation Part 1 - Covid
I’m going to value SAR in 5 components: Tyk2 Covid, TYK2 Immune, TYK2 Cancer, SRA737, Aurora & SKIL (the last two I’ll combine because I have little to work on). So, first of all to Covid. We know that pre-clinical POC is ‘encouraging’ and will almost certainly go to the clinic. How it gets there is another thing. I’m basing my model on Dexamethasone because the pricing of that drug is at the bottom end of the scale (£11.45 in the UK) as opposed to Remdesivir (£1,590 per course). When I ran the model with Rem it couldn’t cope with all the zeros. It would even have made Thoth’s eyes water! I’ve based my model on 10% of the UK adult population needing 1 course each year. This seems reasonable as the NHS will need to take a precautionary approach to prescription – better to prescribe and it not be needed than not to and have a hospital case (and a legal case to follow if a death occurs). I have then used a PE of 10 which is an underestimate because the patent on 1801 is much longer. I have then assumed that if it works in the UK we will see it rolled out in the US and EU. I have allowed nothing for Africa, India and South America as we may need to be philanthropic. I have also allowed nothing for China and Russia because they will simply copy it. On this basis I have then discounted the value by 85% as this is still a high risk drug (in terms of success). However, my model shows that even at this discounted rate it commands a SP of 25.9p. If it goes the whole way then we have a drug worth a SP of £1.72 at today’s prices and the current number of shares in circulation. Pricing the drug at £11.54 with a margin of 80% is most likely a significant undervaluation. Even the cost of drugs to treat Shingles is more than twice that. I therefore see these figures as minimums.
Based on all the components I’ve calculated total values as follows:
Pre Agile Value (ie now): 56p
Post Agile with CTA for 1801 in Immune: £1.15
Total potential value by Xmas (success in Agile and 1801 signed off for Lupus/RA CTA, 737 combo underway): £7.77
Total potential value in 2-3 years assuming everything is successful: £32.93
And now the caveats. A total potential value is only a start point/benchmark and as I’ve said before a buyer would want a discount against future value. If I was negotiating a TO by Xmas or H1 2022 then I’d be looking at a 90% discount (we are still very high risk) which would mean a SP of between £2.33 and £3.29. (SAR valued at up to £10.9bn). That sounds a lot but looking at the potential value in the pipeline its not unreasonable. If SAR was able to go it alone and commercialise everything then Thoths £30-40 is perfectly viable but ONLY if everything works and that’s a big, big IF. It’s also years away and will involve deep, deep pockets. IMHO we will simply be bought out when the data starts to demonstrate that one or more drugs work. By Xmas I think we’ll know where we’re heading. If 1801 is successful against Covid and also goes into CTA for Lupus/RA then negotiations will be fast tracked. At the moment I believe we’re on the radar, under the microscope and communicating. Success against Covid will move the goalposts and timescales. GLA and this is not investment advice, just my views. Forget the 10p party, the real party will be when we go past £1. I concur with Thoth that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity but in the interests of balance if everything fails then we have nothing! I’m now off to walk the South West Coastal Path……
Valuation Part 1 - Covid
I’m going to value SAR in 5 components: Tyk2 Covid, TYK2 Immune, TYK2 Cancer, SRA737, Aurora & SKIL (the last two I’ll combine because I have little to work on). So, first of all to Covid. We know that pre-clinical POC is ‘encouraging’ and will almost certainly go to the clinic. How it gets there is another thing. I’m basing my model on Dexamethasone because the pricing of that drug is at the bottom end of the scale (£11.45 in the UK) as opposed to Remdesivir (£1,590 per course). When I ran the model with Rem it couldn’t cope with all the zeros. It would even have made Thoth’s eyes water! I’ve based my model on 10% of the UK adult population needing 1 course each year. This seems reasonable as the NHS will need to take a precautionary approach to prescription – better to prescribe and it not be needed than not to and have a hospital case (and a legal case to follow if a death occurs). I have then used a PE of 10 which is an underestimate because the patent on 1801 is much longer. I have then assumed that if it works in the UK we will see it rolled out in the US and EU. I have allowed nothing for Africa, India and South America as we may need to be philanthropic. I have also allowed nothing for China and Russia because they will si
Please look up user DanBaker and read through his numerous posts. Very good research, knowledge, insight and comprehensive.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-britain-energy-future-lies-122235738.html
Hi, can anybody explain what to do regarding below. Apparently, if you do not vote, it may affect your shares holding, ie they may be cancelled. This is due to the proposed change of EQT shares from CREST system in the UK to a different system based in Belgium (result of Brexit). On AJ Bells, they set up in your message and you can vote from there but other companies like Hagreaves Lansdown, Interactive Investors - nothing so far. Below is message on AJ Bells:
EQTEC PLC has announced details of an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) to be held on 17 February 2021; this is a meeting that occurs outside of the Annual General Meeting (AGM) and normally has urgent resolutions to vote on. As a shareholder in EQTEC PLC, you now have the opportunity to vote on the proposed resolutions.
To view the announcement, including the resolutions to be voted on, please copy and paste the below link into your web browser:
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eqtec/news/rns_widget/story/rmqq32w
Submitting a vote:
If you would like to vote for, against or abstain from voting for all of the proposed resolutions, you can enter your elections in this event.
If instead, you would like to split your votes, to be able to vote for, and/or against, and/or to abstain from voting across different resolutions, you will need to send a secure message, before the deadline, as below:
- in the ‘Subject’ field, please state: CORPORATE ACTION - EQTEC PLC - 9627812
- specify the details of the meeting and how you would like to vote for each resolution.
IMPORTANT NOTE - If you have any questions or queries regarding this event, please send us a secure message and ensure you quote the following in the ‘Subject’ field: CORPORATE ACTION - EQTEC PLC - 9627812
600 Fuel Cell Buses To Be Powered With Green Hydrogen In Germany
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/18/600-fuel-cell-buses-to-be-powered-with-green-hydrogen-in-germany/
600 Fuel Cell Buses To Be Powered With Green Hydrogen In Germany
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/18/600-fuel-cell-buses-to-be-powered-with-green-hydrogen-in-germany
Partnership promises a steady supply of sustainable aviation fuel
https://generalaviationnews.com/2021/01/13/partnership-promises-a-steady-supply-of-sustainable-aviation-fuel/
Atlas Air Boeing 747 Operates Transatlantic Flight On Sustainable Fuel
https://simpleflying.com/atlas-air-747-sustainable-fuel/