The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Hasina's new year speech to the nation was to build on progress achieved but make even better progress and she also said earlier she is forging closer links with China. Phulbari is the means to her ends so the pressure is on Nasrul Hamid, state minister of the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, to live up to his status with the means put at his disposal.
If GCM are to be part of the mix going forward then Tang should raise finance post approval since we will need the working capital to boost the team and avoid unnecessary dilution.
Downside is minimal while upside is in the air, it could be many times SP however the market is not playing a fair game generally on AIM and the players other than investors could be holding the range for nefarious reasons. This share differs from GKP, where I was mega ramper at 9p, in that the coalfield exists and is quantified but we do not know how profits will be split. Global Coal Management hopefully will be eponymous at Phulbari.
This could happen here and would not be a boom for us
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ETX/proposed-fundraise-of-163289m-and-cancellation-5nc5u59ac1ryzfp.html
Gov do not need to be owners, they will take a percent of profit but not losses! I am hoping GCM will have some interest in any minehead coal selling price otherwise price paid for coal might be held hostage to PC. All in negotiation imo.
I expect the corporate lawyers are the spanner in the works at the moment. I can't see an announcement before the parties know where they will end up and imagine the scrapping will be some of the most intense these lawyers will have ever had to engage with. They should have a rocket put under them.
'too'
Been waiting nearly 20 years for Phulbari to materialize.
Great that new local press articles in the news daily.
Any idiot should appreciate the momentous time it is for the whole of Bangladesh and the importance of getting open pit mining at Phulbari started.
Your post 15.01 Searcher " If the government can stand as an active partner and present this issue as a business case, then both the political declaration and its implementation utility can be economically and financially accepted, only then it’s possible. " is what I have been saying favours GCM as the entity to manage the project. Hasina needs to have a friendly face to US and UK to engage the pharma and textile industry worldwide and not be exploited by financial dependance to her main political backers rather than her diaspora. There is no need for her to be entrenched.
They are starting to gang up; adviser to the PM, Dr Mashiur Rahman should be pivotal with Hasina and says "Bangladesh's all departments have their own power and sometimes they may fail to ensure correct judgment, which is creating impediments to the private-sector investment,"
Jollychippy; your link is the finger on the pulse. Dealing with GCM is an imperative now even if Hasina is in bed with China, Russia and India. She cannot afford any more delay and can distance herself and be pro OPM by changing her energy minister if he doesn't announce something soon.
Https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/8/sheikh-hasina-once-bangladeshs-democracy-icon-now-its-authoritarian-pm
Hasina and Zia known as the battling begums.
"Begum (also begüm, bagum, begom, begam, baigum or beygum) is a royal and aristocratic title from Central and South Asia. It is the feminine equivalent of the title baig or bey, which in Turkic languages means "higher official". It usually refers to the wife or daughter of a beg." - Wikepedia Shamina Begum was denied Bangladeshi citizenship.
"Furnace oil-run power plants account for about 23 per cent of the country’s total power generation in the 2022-23 fiscal. Power production cost increased by 29 per cent to Tk 11.52 a unit during this period and use of furnace oil was one of the reasons for a rise in the production cost"
https://en.prothomalo.com/bangladesh/l6ukoajcxm#:~:text=Furnace%20oil%2Drun%20power%20plants%20account%20for%20about%2023%20per,rise%20in%20the%20production%20cost.
google is a great help
You get cash where you can crowfoot when running a deficit.
https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/341315/nasrul-hamid-pm-hasina-keen-to-create-more-scopes
Perhaps there are women in the wings for minister of energy job as stroking Hasina's ego will not deliver the goods.
Hasina needs to undermine Nasrul who has given go ahead for expensive LPG power generation which I suspect he did because suppliers of gas and coal and oil are waiting for payment. She can do this by mobilising against opposition to OPM at Phulbari. All things do boil down to that democratic imperative and Nasrul is having the rug pulled because the mob will soon be on his doorstep instead of GCMs' as Hasina gets behind us.
The Scheme of Development includes all environmental considerations as developed by Asia Energy in April 2006.
https://www.gcmplc.com/phulbari-coal-project/overview
Jamess, I am assuming the figures for profit will derive from PC sales of coal. After calculation of production costs which are mainly extraction and management involving GCM and PC, the sales to power stations will have a profit element which will be split % tax % operational costs and % to licence holder and quite possibly % to local authorities put in charge of water pumps (as would be prudent for future management). Just my musings as I would like to see the final acceptable face of capitalism applied. A lot of negotiating to do post approval on a country level and technically complicated.
Wolfi, 6,688 hectares can be compared to this data " The Fens is an area of 400,000 hectares, stretching from Lincoln and Boston in the North, Cambridge to the South and Peterborough to the West. " " Data on the 2021 population of Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland taken from the 2021 Census5 show a total of 1,136,000 residents across Greater Lincolnshire and Rutland. " (733 ,900 hectares)
Acid mine drainage amelioration measures need to be watertight! When you look at the fens which have had water management since Roman times you would think it was manageable except we do not have monsoons to contend with or iron sulphides I suppose.
Population density must be greater in Bangladesh
" the modality for state participation as a partner in the Project." modality; the way or mode in which something exists or is done
" to raise further funds in the coming weeks"
As the licence holder GCM is in a strong position due to urgency for Hasina and therefore should be able to ink an agreement for the project due to the position they hold between PC and the government and the government getting their tax % to their satisfaction. This is easiest for GCM to achieve their small % of the project without the muscle of PC taking too much.
Tang will want to load up his mates hence 'coming weeks' but he might not beat pressure of events (I hope) and project approval comes first which would be looking after shareholders; I don't believe a pre approval raise aligns with shareholders.
The RNS majored on post result period and should have put most under post period developments. Shackleton seemed to try to play to the LSE gallery too.
Overall very hopeful GCM has a future.