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PK is therefore a Chapter 11 specialist.
That suggests company is seeking administration, with regards to bankruptcy whilst believing it is still a ‘viable going concern’ and so ‘maximising recovery’, which will likely involve debt restructuring (hence why the SL are perhaps making things v.difficult).
Limited experience of Chapter 11 but the judge will get the company (bod = Anavio) to sit down with the Senior Lender and devise a restructuring : possibly some partial sell-offs &/or possibly some new financial package, that could then see the old debt written off via the bankruptcy. As this is being driven by Anavio then it suggests that they might supply the next batch of ‘senior debt’.
Sadly, the ‘industry standard’ for Chapt.11 is for the existing shares to often be written off but on some occasions, the current 100% equity then gets allocated 10% of the new equity base. Eg. new finance arrives, say perhaps $20M, which then gets allocated 90% of the new equity base. The bod may then allocate the remaining 10% to the existing shareholders but often, will allocate it to themselves.
A difficult scenario for existing Pi’s.
Should though Pi’s then pick up 10% of the new equity, then imv that could be on a similar value to the current mkt cap of c.£2M to £3M but with better prospects as a ‘going concern’. The downside is that the bod could & often does, wipes out existing Pi’s in addition to wiping out the old debt.
Without a guarantee from the bod, then Pi’s could make it difficult for the bod by highlighting the rather nefarious business practices that COPL have employed. The judge won’t consider bankruptcy for villains.
Pi’s might have to strike a deal early with the bod, perhaps verifying that they can pick up a % of any revised outcome. Failing any guarantee then Pi’s could easily feed the judge plenty of incriminating evidence. Good luck peeps.
Thanks Tiburn, that’s appreciated.
I’m guessing that the new director is being flown in to either oversee a partial sell, likely the Fed Deep or to oversee the current engineering on the BFU. I was quite dubious since early days on SWP’s skill-sets.
As per your thinking on the new long term time-frames for the bonds (include that the bod can’t cash them in for 12 months) and it does suggest a long play.
Hopefully they get that (imo) engineering sorted but keep one eye open for… shenanigans. The lack of any engineering update, sadly points towards a possible probability of the latter. Take care bud and limit yourself to participating on this bb. All will agree its toxic & ultimately affects sound reasoning.
Earlier than February I guess, as there appears to be a decent amount of flak being sent out to the regulators which will then need addressing… hence directing any correspondence to your local MP and only ‘cc’ the regulators, should then see a swifter response.
SL likely benefits from going into Chapter 7 but the BH could then offer the judge additional liquidity, such that the field still produces, which would then put it into Chapter 11, which is a risky place for senior debt.
90% of the MC but business is inclusive of EV, which then gives SL a heftier weighting.
Chapter 7 perhaps, IF Anavio have a buyer lined up with a pre-agreed price, otherwise Anavio would likely lose out on payment coverage for the outstanding $21.4M in bonds. The SL might go down this route.
Chapter 11 and IF the judge believes that the business is honest, hard-working & worth saving, the judge may then allow the debt to be restructured. And that then puts the SL debt into fairly serious jeopardy such that they disapprove.
Worth perhaps a wee bit more reading into, but simpler to wait on news tomorrow. Good luck to you all.
Technical glitch could be waxing but I thought this was overcome when the flowing valves were upgraded to pumping-flowing, specifically to overcome waxing. As was the addition of heating oil ?
As per several peeps on here and suspect that the GGS has again raised a technical glitch.
Hopefully though not another bbq. There were 7 such incidents reported in the 2022 annuals.
Lol but you are one sick puppy Tradevol.
With respect to filing for admin, if this goes to Chapter 7 it will be because the project is dead and will then see a fire sale, with SL taking the 1st slice then BH getting the next slice. Pi’s will only get entertained should the sale exceed debts. Is therefore a risky move by BH.
More than likely it will be Chapter 11, but that too is risky. In both cases filing under bankruptcy, the judge will look first to see if the debtor’s financial & company reports are without fault. The judge will not entertain a bankruptcy when misdeeds have been occurring…
And will likely query why the FCA took several months longer than usual to accept the company’s prospectus.
Expecting that a conclusion to CoplH’s Agatha Christie might soon arise & that possibly the 2nd CPR report gets published.
Assuming technical difficulties on the GGS (imo is most probable) then, Anavio are in a tight spot, with their 1.3B shares bought at 0.15p for and so needing to download at c.1p to then recuperate their initial CLN costs.
The 1st CPR covered the BF and was estimated by RS that production could rise to 5000bopd. Which was prior to any of AM’s engineerings. That then represents a possible return of say c.$35M (using Cuda’s buy-out figures, reduced for a lower POO) in a controlled sale.
The 2nd CPR on the Fed Deep then entered into ‘cutting-edge-technology being needed’ and for a short while, brought in some interest by prospective partners.
Half-expecting that this report might now get released, primarily to highlight the complexities of the technical challenges but also in part, as akin to opening a Pandora’s Box, which then reveals the obfuscation that AM used, both with retail and likely also the BH.
IF it is seen that AM was deceitful to the ii’s this Might then gain them some breathing space from the SL to either overcome any GGS technical glitches or for a controlled sale of either BFU &/or the Fed Deep.
The above is then assuming that Anavio are staying the course ie that it is technical issues, as apposed to yet further market skull-duggery.
With no explanation being given by the bod with respect to any set-backs on the field or of explanation of the current charge that the field holds, then the finger of probability does rather point towards likely BH skull-duggery.
I think you are on the right track RBM with your earlier ‘bonds to the bod’ being illegal. The other arguments being raised on here are tenuous at the least.
I suspect though that you will be on the losing track, if your only avenue of complaint is then restricted to the FCA.
As per earlier and might suggest that you only ‘cc’ your complaint to the FCA but direct it to your local MP. You then need to show concern of a UK instution’s competence and for the FCA you don’t need to look too far (September’s AMTE suspension by the FCA which then protected the MM & hedge fund as an example). The FCA will then likely promptly react when knowing that their land-lords are watching. Good luck.
“… Do not trust coplherder. He is being paid...”
lol. & so now you understand bud why I have no sympathy.
Talking of foolish cretins, where is the drama queen jiddy and her list of non-conforming Pi’s ?! I would then take it one step further, and suggest that a list of ‘cretinous Pi behaviour’ would be inclusive of every single Pi that then ticked-up her dramas. In summary bud, I have almost zero sympathy. There are though one or two good eggs who did fall prey to AM’s *cough*…. charms. I then sincerely wish that these Pi’s will soon move onto greener pastures.
“… So we end up with a forum not for the weak or naive. Which is exactly what some people are and why we should support them..”
Sorry CoplH., but this I strongly disagree with.
There is no safety margin and there should be none, when considering those who commit acts of stupidity. I am not saying Mr Gooze is in any way daft, but I raised the point that ‘his timing was unfortunate’ the moment the RNS was released of his TR1 [6.5p] only for it to be followed a week later by the sp crashing by c.50%. Mr.Gooze is not the one demanding answers. I myself have been in the same situation, losing several millions and is I don’t expect sympathy & nor do I ask for sympathy. I accept responsibility for my foolish trades (thankfully this has been a good year). And it appears from Mr.Gooze’s silence, that he then accepts responsibility too.
I would agree that the LSE forum needs addressing, that they should take more responsibility of creating a more balanced forum. The fact that it is a haven for trolls & the ilk, then just becomes a part of the learning curve for all Pi’s. Should PI’s then wish to ignore some fairly blatant red-flags, then that is just part & parcel of the nature of the game.
We all regularly make mistakes, and imv this time, it is Mr.T’s turn.
Mr.T was from a similar mould as AM in that they both believed in the project.
Stas though showed earlier today, that AM had then again forwarded falsified notifications with respect to the first 4 months of promoting an RBL with respect to obtaining Cuda, to AM then later admitting that an RBL could Not be processed until after the Cuda acquisition was completed.
Sadly, Mr.T could not see thru AM’s duplicitous nature.
As an aside Stas, what was it that made you then come back on board ?
Are you sure Daz ?! Coz according to Lord Haw Haw the only red flags occurred during the Oilexco period and that the more recent faux pas are generally all down to a malicious crew posting on a Brit bb. That the ‘red flags are all from dreamland’ ?! & Strangely enough those malicious types were the same chaps who had earlier called out his over-riding obsession with all things anti-AM.
That could be termed a baptism of fire Knw. A painful way to start investing but best to learn the hard lessons.
Might well be though that the answer to this sad debacle, perhaps lies in it just being one final technical glitch too far..
Lol, guessing that happy hour is late.
There was numerous red flags covering almost every discipline of this project, including the financing, the technical expertise & the due diligence which then missed a field held together by B&Q plastic plumbing.
Likely that one could probably fill a book on the amount of red flags that were raised here, starting with the deceitful RNA’s, the multiple 2 for 1 placings (the 2nd immediately following the 1st placing within a matter of a few days to then enable ‘VIP mates’ to come onboard), the back-stabbing of major equity holder Hadron Capitol who then saw their 12% holding immediately reduced by 50% on the following placing (hence their vicious selling on relist) and numerous other malignant deeds by AM.
As per earlier though and it ain’t a criminal offence being incompetent.
The only crime seen here so far, is the gross negligence from AM.
And as you very correctly point out, there has been numerous red flags on almost every aspect of this project, all courtesy of AM.
Would though be nice for future reference to get some answers on all the technical hitches.
Possibly only a $1M shortfall on the SL covenant. The Sl had agreed to reduce the balance from $2.5M down to $1.5 to assist freeing up funds. They are now reverting to original requirement of having $2.5M balance so there might only be a $1M shortfall.
Likewise with the reservoir charge. They may have stopped additional gas injection but that does not mean the reservoir will lose its charge. Was similar in Q1/2 2021 & the charge was not adversely affected.
Guessing the c.$2.5M is to cover winter ops..
It’s probably a lot worse than that Lloydy, as yes you have the bond holders forward selling and yes you have the brokers doing the actual sells. But then you also have the FCA turning a blind eye to it all.
And should the whole corrupt system get caught out by diligent Pi’s, the FCA will then facilitate the forward selling by suspending further trading until the due date of the transaction of equity raise has then been reached. As facilitated by the FCA in September for the ‘placing’ (pre-AGM authorisation) that was then operated on AMTE.