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@Plumber95 - I'm afraid you'd have had a much greater chance of that happening if you left out the p...
...you are a plumber after all... ;-)
SP on the hourly chart is touching 70 on the RSI.
On the daily chart the SP is within touching distance of the 20DMA and just above that line is the 200DMA...
Today wasn't really a green day, most markets are red, if tomorrow is green and this can push the SP to over 77 which is were the 200DMA sit, that surely must be very bullish and if that happens the SP will also be above the 70 on the hourly RSI which is another bullish signal and all this should trigger the algos to buy.
So this could go even better tomorrow or very soon as long as sentiment don't suddenly turn around ie hopefully infections carry on going down and tonight we don't get surprise.
Hopefully it doesn't find resistance at the 200DMA which is possible but I doubt it as things look up and the SP is already so low...
Topdog21
"Why invest in a company that is heavily shorted and over many years"
Below is the companies that are currently short on Cine:
Adelphi Capital LLP 15 Jun 2020 (1 Year)
AHL Partners LLP 18 Apr 2018(3+ years)
Highbridge Capital Management LLC 25 Mar 2021(4 months)
New Holland Capital LLC 24 Nov 2020(8 months)
Polygon Global Partners LLP 02 Mar 2021(5 months)
Whitebox Advisors LLC 16 Dec 2020(8 months)
Only one company has been short on Cine for years and they only ever held a max short interest of no more than 1.04%.
Do note: This is only for current companies that are short. So very recently short interest was close to 0.
Right now the current short interest is under 8%. So considerably more people are long than short. I don't think an 8% chance of rain signals impending disaster. There is still a 92% it won't rain...
Just from my broker IG: (501 + IG client accounts have open positions in this market)
95% of IG client accounts with open positions in this market expect the price to rise
5% of IG client accounts with open positions in this market expect the price to fall
The biggest short is around 2.5%. They stormed in(They didn't stagger their purchases) and then had to backtrack and start to close at the point the SP reached 100.
You ask why invest, well why short? It's all to make money and given my entry, I'm in a much more favourable position than New Holland Capital LLC which has the biggest short.
Clearly these are trying times and shorters are opportunists, I have no issue with that, so am I. They've clearly jumped in recently to try and make a gain in these times and with infections rising and fears of lockdowns which they know will scare investors as it has.
But there are more people sitting and waiting to pile in than short this stock as was proven when it went over 100 when infections went down and sentiment became positive. They'll come back when sentiment changes again which it always does.
The shorters sit at around 97.5, 88, 104, 60, 93 and 78. With average volume around 8Million, if sentiment changes who do you think will have the most momentum behind them?
The shorters have placed their bets that we will have another lockdown, if there is none they are done. If there is I need to wait a little longer for profits.
Broker ratings
Strong buy 2
Buy 0
Hold 5
Sell 2
Strong sell 0
So even the brokers are in favour of Cine.
To me things are only going to improve, that's the trade, infections will plateau and then drop, it has happened after every single wave so far and now we have a vaccine. And every single time the market responded and went up.
Our biggest market is in the US and they are looking good.
The whole piracy thing alone I feel has also given Cine a boost, it's been deb
@smalltrader
If you've seen my previous post...Then sadly shorts aren't closing except for Whitebox Advisors LLC which reduced on the 12th July but that was a paltry and insignificant 0.01%.
In fact AHL Partners LLP increased their short holding on the 21st July by 0.14%. Having looked at the data they also by far seem the most professional given how long they have been shorting Cine and the prices as which they shorted. They seem to know what they are doing I'm afraid to say...
If you look at the figures I gave, one is being squeezed a little now but in the past they managed to hang in till the SP got to 100 before they started to reduce.
The rest will only start to be squeezed around the 80 mark and some over 90 and AHL the best placed one can go up over a 100 before being squeezed.
Positive RNS or positive news on infections could lift sentiment and drag other investors in and push the SP higher and make them close sooner.
I'm massively in the red with Cine so hoping for positive numbers to come from Cine soon to hopefully give it a lift. Not to mention infections to plateau or go down..
@smalltrader - Regarding the shorts...
I did some digging yesterday...And produced some back of a fag box calculations...
I stand to be corrected, as these calculations are rough estimates to just give me an idea of the overall short picture in my mind...I wasn't going to share it but most bar AHL will be reasonably accurate.
That's because they have been short on Cine for the longest and as far back as 18 Apr 2018 when the Cine SP was 260 when they opened a 0.51% short interest on that day. They added/reduced it countless times over the years...
Today they have a 0.90% short interest and I judge them to have an average of around 97.5.
The other players were much easier to work out...
Whitebox Advisors LLC has a 1.19% short interest and an average of around 88, so below this they make money...
Adelphi Capital LLC has a 0.79% short interest and an average of around 78
Highbridge Capital Management LLC has a 1.00% short interest and an average of around 93
Polygon Global Partners LLP has a 1.23% short interest and an average of around 104
We will leave the biggest short for last:
New Holland Capital LLC has a 2.42% short interest
Right down below is the shorts they registered starting at the bottom. On the 23rd Nov 2020 they established a short interest of 0.63% and they increased it between then and the 27 Nov 2020 to 2.84% during which time the SP stayed around the 55 mark.
Since then they have decreased it very slightly with an even smaller increase again on 13 April 2021
To me they are the amateurs, I'd imagine Eddie works for them.
They stand out from the rest ie the totally got it wrong, they went short low and long high.
To me their average is around the 60. I base that on the fact that their entire short position was basically created between the 23rd Nov 2020 and 27th Nov 2020 when the SP stayed around the 55 mark.
Since then they really just reduced it so whilst the SP was higher as you go further up the list below they didn't actually add to it other than a tiny percentage on the 13th April 2021 which hardly would have made a difference to their average.
Anyway, this is the figures for anyone else to read and correct me. Obviously all these companies may well have hedged ie they are long as well, but we don't know. Again, it's just rough esitmates to give me an idea about when they may start to be in trouble like I didn't know whether the SP has to go to 200 or not..Equally many others may be short but below 0.5% which we won't be able to see.
I feel this one will fold first, see how they went in big time in a flurry then started to reduce later on when the SP nearly doubled, I reckon(hope) that was margin calls.
2.42% 13 Apr 2021 SP 98
2.39% 10 Mar 2021 SP 102
2.49% 8 Mar 2021 SP 105
2.55% 5 Mar 2021 SP 105
2.66% 3 Mar 2021 SP 112
2.78% 1 Mar 2021 SP 98
2.84% 27 Nov 2020 SP 55
2.73% 26 Nov 2020 SP 55
2.58% 25 Nov 2020 SP 55
2.42% 24 Nov 2020 SP 55
0.63% 23 Nov 20
I live in Reading and the weather was awful for weeks and weeks till this heatwave we are now experiencing.
It rained all the time, so maybe that is what they are referring to.
That said the weather is always the first thing that gets blamed by the British and used as an excuse for poor performance. I mean it did not stop Next making good sales during the same time who has many shops for which you need to venture out including a massive one in Reading.
But maybe people were tired from online shopping during lockdown, perhaps they wanted to go out and since there was a Next but no Asos they shopped there...
I need to read the report to see where these sales was made ie shops or online and compare the online part to Asos at least.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see if management buys more shares at this price...There may be a strong argument to be had that they manipulated it down just to buy back by wording the statement (in)appropriately...
But then I might be a bit cynical and the reason the CEO sold that many shares is he saw what was coming...
Asos looking good today, hope it doesn't give it all back after today's market bounce.
I was in the red yesterday by quite a bit but now sit on a hundred pounds, not much I know but if it can go to 5000 it will be just over £3k which will give me back my losses after I was in the green before the results sent it down. That is really all I want here, not too much risk, just want my money back, actually I only need it to go to 4500 to get it back. The rest will be some reward.
But it was a wild ride this morning, never seen that before, it was up and then down, it was scary it was so volatile..
Love how Eddie's response was 'it's a long post I can't be bothered to read it.'
And straight after I hit the refresh button he is gone...
Shame, I guess he was bothered after all.
Eddie,
Sad that you get so little attention that you need to prod a wasps nest to get some...But then the lengths insecure people would go to..
If you shorted the stock a few weeks back then you will be sitting on a nice big profit, something I will not begrudge you.
At the same time since you are clearly on a big profit you should feel very secure about your position. So much so that you shouldn't need to come on here and try to bully and manipulate others to validate and approve your short position and agree with you.
Equally if the company is indeed going down and has no future, then surely you should even be more secure about your short.
So the question is Eddie, who are you trying to convice? Us or yourself? Are you asking us or telling us..
As someone who don't care about Cine, you seem to care far too much...
If you were sure this company was doomed, you wouldn't be here, if you sat on a big profit, you wouldn't be here. If you were sure about yourself you wouldn't be here needing us to reassure you that Cine is going down as you want to believe. I said want to believe, because you clearly don't believe it, so you want us to tell you we believe it. Someone confident in their appearance don't need others to tell them they look fine.
That's why you are here. The insecure always look for other people like them to agree with them so they can feel sorry for themselves together. And if you can't find any, you'll revert to bullying tactics ie name and shaming to win(bully) peope over.
Notice how often you put others down to make yourself stand out which is even more of a sign of an insecure person.
I bet that big short is in the red and you are now so worried and you are becoming desperate by reverting to bullying and manipulation tactics. Maybe you are even one of the companies shorting this stock. How funny is that, you boys starting to worry?
Anyway, you can try and disguise your motives behind the facts you produce, and whilst I don't dispute the facts ie debt, there is no getting away from the fact that your behaviour speaks of someone very insecure and desperate.
If you were clever you would have known how you will be perceived if you come across the way you do and that it will invalidate your credibility and you would have chosen a more suble approach to get your point across. But again, the insecure is blind, focussed on themselves...
I'm no chart expert, but that looks like resistance, not support.
The SP is in decline, so we need to look for a support not resistance isn't that?
The next support after 3800 to me seems to be between 3080 and 3360...At those levels the SP bounced back upwards.
I'd say the SP needs to go back up from here to around 3800 where I see a support ie level that was previously reached but then rebounded off. If it closes below today then I may sell and forget about this because to me it is then going a long way down.
From my broker IG
Strong buy: 5
Buy: 8
Hold: 7
Sell: 2
Strong sell: 1
Total Brokers: 23
I'd imagine(hope) they are all more more clever than me and that they know a lot more than me.
So I don't see why this should go further down, it's already taken a huge beating.
Trying to get some at 3700, current average 3948 so I'm quite a bit in the red..
Currently the SP is trundling below the 30 on the RSI on both the 1 hour and daily chart so very oversold.
Given how up the market is today(It has moved out from oversold) I'd have hoped that would have pushed Asos from below 30 to over 30 which generally makes the algos go on a buying frenzy...
I think it might be trundling around there because travel stocks are up today, seen this before when they are up stocks like Asos/Boohoo goes down as I guess people need to sell to enter those stocks..
Source: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/black-widow-premium-vod-reveal-shocked-hollywood-1234983101/
Conventional wisdom suggests that Disney will revert to a traditional theatrical release for its movies this fall when the box office recovery is further along, while Warner Bros. has said it will end its current practice of debuting movies day-and-date in cinemas and on HBO Max in 2022.
Wall Street analysts and film financiers believe that day-and-date releases cannibalize box office and diminish other ancillary revenues. Imax CEO Richard Gelfond agrees. “When other studios have analyzed the piracy rate and the cannibalization coming out of day-and-date release, they decided to go to a 45-day window,” Gelfond says. “Unless that data is very different here, I assume Disney would come to a similar conclusion.”
@Rosewall - Inflation is a big deal, but equally I think too much has been made of it.
We were always going to have inflation once we got out of lockdowns, there was so little demand and thus supplied dried up and now suddenly it's all demand so off course. If anything it beggers believe that people are running around scared at inflation going up.
Anyway, the the truth is I don't think anyone knows where it will go but consensus seems to be inflation will be transitory.
However big spending infratructure projects will increase commodity prices but equally at some point people will have spent the money in their pockets. I doubt goverment handouts can carry on, lot of that is also now reflected in inflation and equites especially the US. I mean the government just gave out blank cheques...Why they didn't give out vouchers instead is beyond me..Much of that went to robinhood and Apple. Nike etc..
Anyway, I personally would love to have interest rates switched to at least 5% over night. I've been waiting for 10 years for it to rise and to my dismay it has only gone down. I've been waiting and hoping for a catalyst to trigger it, and all that is needed to trigger interest rates is to fire up inflation whether that is through CPI ie goods getting more expensive or through currency devaluation.
Given the printing that has happened in the US, there is real risk the dollar may well lose it's reserve currency status. But then everyone has been printing and really I don't see that happening soon. It's more the crypto guys that is hoping for that.
Problem is, over the last 10 years I've also learnt that everyone has binged so badly on debt that the goverments now know they cannot raise interest rates. Just raising the interest rates in the US alone will send the dollar higher and make servicing debt much more expensive for many poorer nations that has a lot of debt in dollar, and then it will also cost them more to transact on the open market which is mainly done in dollar.
Not too mention all the people who has bought like there is no tomorrow since interest rates have been near zero who will be wiped out.
Do I care? No. Right now debt is rewarded and savers penalised.
But goverments know they cannot raise interest rates, they will lose the election and wipe so many people out they'll probably never be elected again..
So we are stuck..Interest rates should rise but and if they do it will be so little, it will just be to appease some folk...
Unless we have some sort of reset I don't see how we will ever get back to normal(ish) interest rates...I long for the days my money in the bank actually accrued...
@JG86 -
Exactly in the same boat as you.
And I also made the same mistake - "Been averaging down too quick because expected some kind of freedom day bounce and now no more powder to use."
It's painfull to see it falling every single day...There is just no let up, usually there will be a bounce at some point which is how I managed to get myself in this mess expecting that and then averaging down and then it continues down.
Now I'm just looking at it every day...Waiting...Hoping...Praying...
Need a day on which they say infections either stayed the same or dropped even if just a little from the previous day...
Just to change the sentiment around...
But my concern is that it may not slow for a long time still...
@JTAN - "I had 3 chances to get out of this with no loss"
I feel your pain...I've had my chances too with Cine, Stagecoach and VW...If only...
Good luck. Hopefully we are all fine soon.
@iTraderx3m - For a short to take profit they have to buy shares. It's not to say that shorts aren't closing but if all shorts closed it shouldn't tank. I'd be amazed why anyone would still want to hold a short right now. Even they must expect an uptick from here. It seems like it would make more sense to close them, ride it up and get some money back if you made a loss for the next two or so quarters and then short again if you insist on shorting.
@JG68 - Thanks for the info. Yes algo's will sell once price action crosses below the 200DMA and the RSI below 30 etc. Perhaps it's all down to just that, it is a major bearish sign but the stock has been going down since it reached 87.5 with the 200DMA at 73 so way below. That was probably all market sentiment, infections rising, Javid mentioning 100k infections, Labour accusing the goverment of recklessness and the markets worrying about them being forced to halt the lifting of restrictions. But the latest batch of selling has been brutal and sustained ie outliers. Maybe it's PI's that are receiving margin calls and closing out. Mostly it will be institutions I believe that will be running algos than can dump enough stock to shake the market. I'd be surprised if all PI's traded on technicals only. But then who knows..
@bullbears - AMC and Cine shouldn't be compared. AMC is a meme stock, AMC went 10%, 20% and even 50% up on many consecutive days when Cine was going nowhere. If Cine rose like AMC then Cine would be around 1000 if not much higher today...I don't think it has anything to do with streaming news (Because when the streaming media headlines came out(appeared on my news feed) it didn't affect Cine on the very day it appeared.
I remember thinking will the algos pick it up, but they didn't), market sentiment has definitely turned negative and Cine has been dragged down. I don't believe anyway that streaming will kill the Cinemas in the same way video killed the radio or digital content killed video rentals. In one part I get it, shops could be closed but at the same time it seems they have been dragged down much further than others stocks with no regard of an improving financial outlook.
I just feel Cine is sitting prettier than many of the stocks that have dropping of late, yet seems to be treated exactly like the travel stocks when to me I'd have thought they are closer to retail/leisure ie it's a shop/building you go to. Not sure it warrants such a brutal sell off unless someone is selling because they have too. At 5% down currently it's yet again one of the worst stocks on my screen...
Just look at the volume.
Between 8:00 and 09:00 today you have 8 Million, the last time volume reached that level in a one hour period was on the 30th March. The next highest was 6M and only once and then a couple at 5M between 30 March and now.
Yesterday's 22M for the day was also only last beaten on the 30th March and since then a handful at around the 16M mark and then the rest a lot lower...Right now we are already over 17M so we are going to smash yesterday's volume..
Yesterday we hit 4M twice at 9:00 and 12:00, at 10:00 not even 1M and at 11:00 1M so in between almost nothing...Like omeone dumping then giving the market a breather and then repeat...Interesting the volume was near indentical, like two seperate batches of the same size few hours apart.
On the RSI it hasn't been in oversold territory for this long since 24 July 2020...Are we in worse shape now than a year ago? We have more debt today but back then there was no hope at all.
The fact is, regardless of all that, it's seems this share is being dumped at an alarming rate but only by a seperate entity I believe. Yes' its an assumption but here is why.
Given that there has been zero negative news and only good news ie total uplfit of restrictions and zero RNS messages and you look at the huge volume it's clear someone is dumping. I mean we (PI's) all sit on losses because we didn't dump, but we didn't dump because why would we have when there was no negative news to react too. We aren't a travel stock, we aren't at risk from border closures over the upstick of infections in Asia, Aus and Europe.
That is good and bad, bad because what do they know that we don't know? But it's also good because at some point and hopefully sooner rather than later they will be out and normal service will resume.
Perhaps they ran into margin calls with other holdings and need to close positions to free up capital.
The SP was almost certainly too high based on fundamentals when it was over £1, but it is now without a doubt far too low because the market is foward looking and the SP currently does not relect the future outlook at all.
Right now the market seems to not care at all about an improving situation for Cine with revenue coming in, the next set of results will be the best in a long time and the set of results after that will only be better again. We may close the borders but we aren't going to close shops again.
Many other stocks are down, but the volume yesterday and today is outlier. I've looked at my others stocks that are very down like Stagecoach and TUI to name but a few and I don't see the same outliers on them. Yes Cine is more volatile and risky than others, but the volume of each stock was compared to itself.
I saw this stock at 16, it happened whilst I was sitting in front of my PC. People bought then, I'd be amazed if they look at this and don't think here is an opportunity now. We will all buy TUI and IAG if they nearly halved and they are even in
I'm not one to demand RNS messages to prop up a stock price. Neither am I into conspiracy theories of MM's playing tricks...
But when a stock drops 7% on the back of zero RNS and zero news anywhere then it's clear something is going on...
PI's like us wouldn't be doing the selling, for starters many of us are now sitting on losses and secondly why would we be selling when as said there hasn't been any RNS or news let alone negative news from anywhere except actually only good news like zero restrictions from the 19th July...
For it to fall like this who is selling, because someone is selling...And what do they know that we don't know...
Is this being dragged down because someone wants to put an offer in...But even then how do they drag it down and who would that be...
Someone seems to be dumping their stock but equally I'd have expected many willing buyers at this price so they should cancel each other out...
Surely now we need to see an RNS to explain this...Unless Mooky is saying nothing because there is an offer and the lower the price the easier to sell the offer..I mean I honestly actually do not believe anyone wants to buy it, but what else is going on..
Yesterday even though we already knew it, it was yet again confirmed from the 19th July we can have full capacity cinemas and the next day it tanks nearly 10%....
@JG68 - I'm already on an £11k loss...CINE seems to masquerade as a travel stock. It goes up and down with them which makes no sense as it should be a much safer bet than travel stocks.
I fear the media is in the driving seat. One headline in the FT reads - "Australia reports highest daily total in a year as Delta spreads across Sydney"
If you read it you will see there is only 112 cases...These headlines all the time is destroying sentiment. The media must be loving this, they get to make sensationalist headlines all day long and the algos reacts to it...
We are so much better of than we were 6 months ago nevermind a year, I don't think CINE should necessarily be flying right now, but I don't think it should be tanking like this. Unless people believe we will enter another lockdown...
First people freaked out by the daily deaths, now they freak out about the daily infections, they freaked out about restrictions, now they freak out by restrictions being removed, freaked out about having to WFH, now they freak out about having to work from the office...
Think I need to get a different day job! Or it's time to close my postions and short CINE myself. May as well join the party.
@JG68 - To be fair CINE is far from the only stock that is down. Maybe some people only trade CINE and they see the FTSE100 and FTSE250 is up and wonder what is going on.
But on my screen even though the DAX is up over 1% and the FTSE100 nearly 0.7% which is all good, it's actually carnage ...
Automotive, Travel_UK, Holidays, Aviation, Airlines, Oil companies which is some of the sections on my screen they are all massively in the red...
Not sure what I would want Mooky to say to be honest other than Amazon phoned him with an oven ready offer...
Anyway, as you said, cases are rising everywhere and I noted today the shorts have added to their positions...That is not helping us..