Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Lost their nerve again... Or realised(Or was reminded!) it would conflict with their primary mandate of keeping property and equity prices high and the government debt payments manageable...
I can just imagine the call from Rishi to Bailey after he said interest rates will have to rise! "Bailey, who do you think you work for!? Next time you check with me first before making any statements to the media about interest rates rises! Better make sure it stays the same or you are fired!
After all the signposting and hawkish posturing they couldn’t even raise it 0.15% nor turn off the printing presses.....
So much for BOE independence...
Inflation is for the little people...
The central bankers learnt you don't have to do a thing, just choose your words carefully and by that alone you can control the market(stop the equity markets from throwing a tantrum because that is what matters), seems they took a leave out of Draghi's book on 'Central banker speak'..
Rishi is taxing money you worked for harder ie PAYE and money you gained from zero productivity ie CGT through house price inflation less...No wonder people want to trade stonks and not work anymore. Everything to prop up housing and equity prices...Screw productivity, we have a printer running non stop, will keep us warm this winter too, and if that doesn't give off enough heat, we will drop money of at your home which you can burn to keep your houses warm as it will have no other value! Same goes for loo paper, next time that runs out, your local central banker to the rescue! At least our money will have soem value I guess!
I'm surprised the markets isn't collapsing! I mean a 0.15% interest rake hike will destroy the economy and lead to the end...
If we are only 0.15% away from that then surely Bailey should drop the interest rates to -5% to stave off the impending disaster...We are on a knife edge!
Now let no one wonder any longer why crypto was invented!
Time for me to finally make the move across, this was the signal, interes rates will never go up, and if they do it will be negligible and yet still be accompanied with 5 pages of reassurances about how quickly the BOE will drop it right back down again the moment the economy sneezes...
Rant over..
Thanks
x
@ Luis2018 - To read FT articles without subscription you must Google the heading.
So for the article you want to read.
You put this into Google.
Rolls-Royce joins with Qatar to pump billions into green start-ups in UK
Select it from the search results and it will show.
You can read a couple like that before it will stop working. Then you clear your cache and it will work again...
Here is the article. Should have included it originally.
https://reader.moneyweek.com/2021/10/11/opinion-74/pugpig_index.html
Hope it works.
On the weekend I was reading my moneyweek magazine ISSUE 1073 which is the latest one and there was a section titled 'Go nuclear - and go small'
All very interesting, at the end of the article is the usual 'How to invest in SMRs' and obviously the author mentioned RR as one option. There was only one other option called NuScale in the US but they are private. Although owned by FLR which trades on the NYSE which he suggested as another option.
After explaining about RR's 440MW SMR as a contender in the SMR space he ended with this line and I quote:
'The group is about to land a load of orders from Eastern Europe, I hear'.
Now I will admit, that makes me sound like a proper ramper, I actually hate writing this.
Anyway, I don't know what to make of it, but it did stir a little bit of excitement in me even though I have no idea how accurate it is...
...was a big miss.
In the old days I can't see the US going anything but red today. It used to send the market down without fail.
It should go lower and drag Lloyds down because higher US payroll data i.e higher employment is one of the key indicators the fed is looking at when deciding to taper and raise interest rates. Unemployment is down a little but not much. So this data suggest it will delay rate rises and tapering..It shouldn't, but the fed will use any excuse to not switch of the printer...
Basically the economy is doing worse than expected because less jobs was created than expected so not good news and should send markets lower. But will it...
Today in a very rigged market, the US may well dismiss that data and fly...Because the fed now has an excuse to delay switching of the money printer and keep rates lower for longer further inflating the equity markets...The markets will sense this and go higher perhaps, more QE for longer...
Although that stays bad news for us in my view since we want rates to go up...
Hard to say how the market will respond. As I say it is so rigged these days, when below expected non farm payrolls don't send the market lower anymore then you know the fed messed up.
And yes I know the fed don't set the rate for the UK, but still what they do as we all know affect us.
Chief executive John Lyttle also echoed comments from his counterpart at Next, who on Wednesday warned that warehouse operatives were in short supply along with lorry drivers.
“There’s no doubt there’s a challenge?.?.?.?we are seeing demand on labour increasing and lower amounts of labour available than in previous years,” said Lyttle, adding that Boohoo was investing heavily in automation to offset this.
But Lyttle said the sales outlook for the second half was better as students returned to universities, children went back to school, more people returned to office work and socialising around Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year resumed.
“All those events that basically didn’t happen last year will benefit all of our brands,” he said, adding that acquisitions made over the past 18 months had greatly increased the group’s potential.
“Two years ago we were 16-24 only with our younger fashion brands. The new brands we’ve acquired open up our addressable market from about 100m people to 500m.”
Fast-fashion retailer Boohoo has warned that its profit margins will fall short of its previous forecast for the year, as a combination of investment and higher costs from freight to wages take their toll.
The UK online group said on Thursday that earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation would be 9 per cent to 9.5 per cent of sales, down from a previous forecast of 9.5 per cent to 10 per cent.
Shares in the company dropped more than 12 per cent in morning trading on Thursday. Asos, another online fashion retailer that targets a slightly older core customer, was down 5 per cent.
Although Boohoo had previously flagged the likelihood of slower sales, finance director Neil Catto said the second quarter in particular had seen “extremely volatile demand” owing to uncertainty around things like festivals and foreign holidays in the UK. Sales growth in its biggest market dipped from 50 per cent in the first quarter to 19 per cent in the second.
Growth also slowed even more dramatically in the US, from 43 per cent in the first quarter to 8 per cent in the second, while sales in Europe and the rest of the world — hit by delays in delivering products to customers — fell in both periods.
“But at the end of the day we look through that and say, actually we’re 73 per cent bigger [in sales terms] than we were two years ago and we’ve doubled our market share in key markets,” Catto added.
The company also incurred significant Covid-related costs, which Catto estimated had knocked £26m off profits in the six months to August 31. Most of these related to transport, and pushed margins down to 8.7 per cent from 11 per cent in the same period a year ago.
Return rates have also reverted to more normal levels. During lockdowns Boohoo benefited from a switch to casualwear among customers — clothing that is less likely to be returned.
Andrew Wade, an analyst at the retailer’s house broker Jefferies, cut his full-year sales growth forecast to 22 per cent from 27 and full-year earnings estimate by 8 per cent to £196m. He lowered his profit forecast for the following year by the same increment, citing the expected “spillover of elevated costs”.
Capital spending will also be slightly higher than forecast, at £275m, as Boohoo continues to invest in new distribution capacity and integrates the brands it has acquired over the past year, including Debenhams and Burton in the UK.
@wildtiger - Really?
Oh hey everyone, just want to say I made thousands here of late on this stock...I mean it's not much...But it is thousands in one month ok!?
Oh, but you know I got some info this morning and it made me sell and run away from this share...So I sat on that info since this morning but I thought I'll let you guys know 2 mins before close of play when nobody will be able to ask me about info..
Oh, good luck and toodle doo...xx
@Taverham - I worked at ezj over a 10 year period. Stelios wanted to treat it like a cash cow and use all the available cash to be paid out in dividends. That was his key motive and he demanded a special div. It's not like he was being cautious and keeping an eye on spending, it's just that as a 25% shareholder to him a growing SP meant nothing, because he was never planning on selling and retaining it forever. He wanted the cash it generated. He was opposed to expansion because that was cash that wasn't being paid out. Now, if you bought into ezj for divis then that is bad news for you perhaps, but if you worked at ezj then he was frustrating at best to deal with.
Now one can argue if you started the airline and you own that many shares then you are entitled. What frustrated me was and this is a key problem with startups when the person who started it retains a large stake.
Whilst he started it, he was not at all responsible for the success of the airline. He basically just had a lot of cash to buy a plane and others then took it over very soon afterwards and he rode along and made it difficult for the company to operate freely as he opposed so much. All his other 'easy' branded businesses went nowhere...
So it's the usual we know we must raise it but we cannot raise it..
The UK is obsessed with rising house prices, they will not tolerate a slowdown let alone drop in house prices.
The gov knows that, if house prices drop they will be voted out next election...So this is political too as it's always been. So as always rates won't rise and the usual excuse will be because they can't...
It's unbelievable the damage low rates like these have done. How many people/pensioners have had to put money into equities because they just cannot leave it in a bank account anymore and get some return.
How many pension funds had to basically forget about leaving some of it in cash in the bank...All this cheap cash has further inflated the housing bubble and yes some of it is due to supply but higher interest rates could have kept that in check...
Low interest rates like these is such an unhealthy situation for society in my opinion...The safety of leaving money in the bank is gone, hence equities and houses is so pumped. Yield on buy to let is not that great, there was a time not long ago you could leave your money in the bank and get the same return if not more. Yes you would lose out on the house going up in value but you had a choice...
If this current situation cannot get interest rates back up ie inflation up then perhaps we are all doomed and perhaps then we should all turn to crypto, something I have avoided till now to give central bankers the middle finger and wakeup call they need. Sadly that will probably make it all worse for everyone..
Cheap and excess credit massively distorted the market...Government also cannot afford higher rates and need to inflate theie debt away...Been waiting and waiting for interest rates rises for about 10 years...I should probably start giving up. We all know if they raise it, they won't ever put it back to something meaningful anyway...Rant over...Thanks...x
@danl90 - Asos was trading around 4600 when they announced the topshop deal. Look where they are trading now.
I'm told the market is a forecasting animal..Well the market clearly don't rate that purchase...You'd have to say it was poor value for shareholders as they could rather have given us that in dividends...Instead we got nothing and are now trading at a much lower SP...
So money spent produced nothing for the shareholders...As always, we believe it will turn around. But as always when it does, then other stocks have moved up much further in the mean time...
Boohoo's results are due on Thursday...Usually Boohoo goes down but it's so far down, can it go down any further...It should take Asos with it which ever way it goes...
I guess we will then see what we might be able to expect from Asos, although Asos is usually much more downbeat on their expectations that Boohoo.
If it's good results, Asos might slowly tick up to the results...
@CaneToad - What you say about Asos and Boohoo is all well and true.
But the broker consensus is not reflected...I'm in Asos and today I'm seeing travel stocks fly and Asos which has nearly a 100% upside is nowhere...
I made money on Boohoo a few times, but I remember how everyone was saying it will be 400 soon and then 450 and it's only ever gone down...
I parked my money here rather than travel stocks because I didn't want to speculate anymore, I want my money in profitable and growing companies that I feel is secure and I know won't go bust.
Ok, we can't know that for sure, but for all intends and purposes this stock won't go bust in the same way tomorrow the sun will come up again although off course the world may end today as anything is possible.
Perhaps all the money has just shifted away from lockdown stocks to travel stocks. And travel stocks is now all the rage and will be till that has run it's course.
It's a shame that in this day and age fundamentals don't matter anymore...Even Cine jumped today...If anyone look at their financials (Fundamentals) and compare 2017 to 2019 the they will understand why it is one of the most shorted stocks in the UK market.
Yet it is flying...And Asos and Boohoo the growing and hugely profitable companies with excellent fundamentals is going down. Ok, they did go up a lot during lockdown. So again, perhaps a rotation from growth to value stocks. But with their fundamentals I'd say they are value stocks as well.
So frustrating...The market is now a casino, that is just it..No one cares or looks at fundamentals anymore, QE and stimulus cheques has pumped so much money into the markets and every one is now trading. How many people that has never traded till before lockdown is now trading.
They don't care or look at fundamentals and find their tips on facebook.Equally Boohoo and Asos are both Aim stocks, Next and JD is on the FTSE100 so blue chip stocks...That does attract lots more private and institutional investors.
That is almost certainly also playing a part and why it is lagging this far behind broker consensus. Many won't invest in Aim stocks, it's more risky. I've been burnt on Aim stocks with directors that was involved in dodgy share transactions who just walked away as that market is not as tightly regulated and scrutinised.
Maybe Asos need to leave Aim behind...To show they are serious and going places. Maybe others will take them more serious then. Anyway, all speculation as to what is causing this stock to be so unloved i.e far below broker consensus.
Maybe it's just another online growth company on Aim...And all that matters is that the growth increases year on year. Doesn't matter if growth is 50%, if that is now down from say 60% before it goes down...
@Falky, I also wish I didn't sell yesterday...I always get it wrong..
One question, you said you sell when everyone is buying and you buy when everyone is selling. I get that strategy even if often it may not work out like today where it's an up day again and we are out at the start of the day.
Why did you buy today as everyone is buying? We are now buying on the up. Not trying to trick you, just trying to learn. Did you think today will be a down day and you expected to buy back in at a lower price?
Is it a case of sometimes if you realise perhaps you got it wrong ie sold too soon, you just have to jump back in asap regardless of whether it's an up day? To me that has most often been the worst thing to do (FOMO), buying back on a down day gives some buffer even if one may have to wait a long time.
RR is in overbought territory, now I know it can stay there for a year, so it doesn't mean one can't buy. But it's the risky move in the current climate. I've learnt these indicators matter because they matter to algos and they do most of the trading.
But I guess the safest thing would be to wait for a down day again, although the risk is one may wait a long time and by then if you buy it may still be higher than it was today because it went up for a few days...
Also, that is big positions to open when the BOE's meeting of today can have a huge impact on the banks. Did you consider that, or is that just noise?
Or do you just go in and if it goes down you have the cash to average down and over time you know you will make a profit if you are patient as it will go up again?
I thought great, it's going to be a nice read while drinking an ale on my balcony enjoying the sunshine...
And then I read short-seller...There is just no way I can take any prediction of an imminent demise serious from a short seller...
"Just have to hope for a short squeeze now!
what happened to gamestop earlier this year - results in share price flying higher as the shorters try covering their losses!"
@shan - How has someone with nearly 7000 posts managed to compare Nex and gamestop?
Registered short interest on NEX is 1.5%....
Registered short interest on Gamestop was over 130% before someone noted that and exploited it...
If all the registered and unregistered shorts close their positions on Nex at the same time I doubt we will notice it. To have a short squeeze you need a far higher short interest than 1.5%....
How much more no one knows but there is no chance of a short squeeze on Nex....
Someone with nearly 7000 posts should have known that.
Had a buy order in for RR and IAG yesterday...
Then changed it and dumped it in Lloyds last minute as I was too greedy on price...
Today, IAG up around 5%, RR at one stage over 3%, FTSE100 up over 1%, market flying and Lloyds you ask? In the red....%$£&!
Guess I only have myself to blame, what was I thinking!? The low spread on this stock lures me in like a mot to a candle...
It's yet again heading for the 200DMA, it better bounce otherwise we(I) have trouble...Not finished below it since Nov last year...
I'm not sure it is as simple as just saying we are not concerned about Shein as Asos is beating them in the UK and they might get banned here when the UK is small fry compared to the global market.
Kitty send some interesting web traffic comparisons between Asos and Shein for the UK market, but I wonder what it looks like for the US market or in all other of Asos's main markets where Shein also operate.
Shein does seem to have twice as much traffic as Asos globally.
From the little that I can see on those links, Asos has 20% US market share and Shein has 40%....So I'm not sure how we can say we are not bothered by Shein(China)...
That said I'm as mystified as anyone else as to why these shares keep falling...I do not believe it has anything to do with shortage of lorry drivers. If you only look at Asos on a daily basis you may think that, but compare Asos's performance to the other retailers on a daily basis and you'll see we keep dropping and they don't so if it was the lorry drivers even Amazon should collapse and everyone else that depends on them. JD is up nearly 10% today, Boohoo almost 3% and Next too. Been like that consistently.
One hedge fund did increase their short on the 9th Sept, but this company is far from a shorted company with just over 1% short interest registered. That is nothing..
Anyway, it feels like Cine all over again for me. Except this company for a change is high profitable and growing rapidly, thought I'd jump in here and play it safe for a change and move away from speculative garbage.
So far Lloyds which I opened at the same time is properly outperforming Asos...That's like the tortoise out pacing the hare...
Think once I get my money back, no more Aim stocks for me, not worth it. Can get rich I know, but it's these drops that does my head in, these ones that doesn't seem to have an explanation and leaves you puzzled..
At least that doesn't happen with blue chip stocks, they may move like a tortoise but there is some predictability.