Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
@Porsche1946 - The general and expert consensus(So not my own!) is to stay out of the US at this time. So it's in fact the opposite of what you claim, invest in the UK and trade the US if you have to and be ready to jump. Because the US is so overvalued and the UK hugely undervalued.
All that QE has blown up US valuations to stratospheric levels.
Otherwise I agree with you on Aim stocks, although to be fair I am more to blame for my losses than Aim stocks. I made a disastrous call on IGas long time ago which was made worse by the silly believe that a loss is only a loss when you sell which meant I held it for a ridiculously long time before I sold..
Shorts closing out is a very good sign for us. I'm very disappointed in today's sudden drop but from what I can see from the graphs is that in this range there is very strong support.
It also has to be said whilst this is an Aim's stock, it is by choice, they could easily have moved out of this category by now. This is such a profitable company. Maybe it will drop further, I hope not but I never understand how anyone can be so certain that it will go up or down...
Asos has got to be one of the best buys around now at this price. I mean it was a good price at 4000 I thought...
@mountainous - I wrote about that before at great length. See me previous posts. All to do with Cine buying Regal and the result of that on the financials.
danl90,
Good find. I was wondering what happened today, couldn't find any reason but this explain today at least.
It was clear that it was being sold for a reason. The market may be down now, but Asos fell all day when the market was up.
Hopefully it recovers, I went back into today and was down nearly a grand at one point...So if anyone wants a sell signal, wait till I buy!
It's went overold today on the daily chart, that's about the only good thing about it now because there is hope it can turn around soon.
southcoastbather - Non Farm payroll data was released at 13:30. Expected was 750k but actual was 235k.
That is why it dropped, that said I don't get it really anymore..In the good old days this was bad news, but in today's time we've been told bad marco data equals no taper fears ie more printing which is good news for stocks...
So the markets is supposed to fly up right now seeing the US added over 500K less jobs that it expected...
Equally Lloyds is supposed to tank now because again as I understand it, taper is good for us...
Who knows...
@Dragon9 - It doesn't match operating profits either as I stated. Well not in pounds anyway. He used £, he did not specify $...
As for finance costs, yes, I mentioned that before but it was poorly received. Not something anyone on here wants to hear.
Difference in the costs of finance between 2017(Before Regal) and in 2019(After Regal) is 10M in 2017 and 391M in 2019.
They prefer to hear from Bc who quotes operating profits in $ which excludes finance costs as outright profits in £...Just to give it that extra oomph! What is a few hundred million here or there...300 dollar vs 300 pounds...Same thing eh...
@Bc2020 - You are a piece of work...
You posted this yesterday:
Cineworld market cap £916m
Profits
2018 £492m
2019 £724m thsi was the best year for all the cinemas
Debt £6bn
I pointed it that it is totally wrong and not because I want an argument. But purely because I'm well aware of the financials of Cine, I know what they are and your post is seriously misleading to others. I mean anyoone that have studied the financials woud immediately have noted your post is utterly misleading. Quite interesting that no one did...Says a lot.
Made worse by the fact that it is one of the most recommended posts too!?? It felt like it needed correction.
Profits for 2019 was £141m not £724m and debt is 7.36B not 6B. For 2018 it was £213m and not £492m...Your figures are out by hundreds of millions...I can't even match your numbers to operating profit.
In fact, I went and double checked my facts just to make sure you aren't correct and I'm wrong before I posted it.
Few hours later you go screw that, and you repost the same incorrect information, copy and paste job...That is how serious you take the rest of us on here and how little you care about what you post.
But people read what they want to read and they only agree with that which confirms their own believes.
Change what you can and accept what you can't.
So time to follow that and end this here. Good luck to you.
Bc....You wrote..
Cineworld market cap £916m
Profits
2018 £492m
2019 £724m thsi was the best year for all the cinemas
Debt £6bn
Where did you get these figures , in your dreams?
This is Cine's data for 2019.
2019:
Net Income: 141.33M
Revenue: 3.43B
Total Liabilities: 7.36B
Interest Payments on Debt: 391M
Profit Margin: 4.13%
No wonder you are such a ramper. You think Cine made nearly £600m more profit than they actually did..
Also Cine's best year was 2017 before they bought Regal. Whilst they made £40m less profit compared to 2019 they were actually much more profitable. Their profit margin was nearly 3 times higher in 2017 compared to 2019.
BC2020 - Yesterday afternoon after the markets closed you wrote on Lloyds board -
"I sold at 50p and bought some cineworld at 63p sold them all today at 71p. So back in to lloyds bought £400k worth"
Yet last night, a few hours after the above post you wrote on Cine - "So i am now sitting with the £400 k ready to buy back in tomorrow"
It's none of my business, but I saw your post on Lloyds this morning and since I read the Cine board too I couldn't help but notice the discrepancy...It's rather confusing...
@JCB208 - At 09:30 UK Composite PMI and UK Services PMI data was released and it was rather disappointing. Equally the same thing was true of the German PMI data. That was why the FTSE and DAX both took a hit, the German data came out an hour before UK data hence DAX start going down before tteh FTSE.
It was the slowest manufacturing expansion in 6 months and well below expected. It was mainly due to supply chain and staff shortages. Anyway, that may explain some of the sharp drop in Lloyds SP as well which is already more fragile than a new born baby....
@Peteret - Cine won't report on shorts as they have no idea what shorts are doing. Hedgefunds(Big Shorts) do not broadcast when they are closing, though they do tend to sometimes use the media to broadcast when they opened a short.
Anyway, why wonder when you can check it yourself. One of them actually increased their shorts on the 12th August.
https://www.shortdata.co.uk/company.php?isin=GB00B15FWH70
For us to go to £1 as per the mystery poster, it will need to be a message saying Cine is planning to put Regal or itself up for sale or they were approached. I just cannot see anything else causing the stock to basically double as per the poster before the end of the week. Or Jhango decided to buy it out with a £1 per share offer but that is the same as above really.
It will have to be news that will dramatically turn around the fortunes of Cine. The purchase of Regal dramatically diminished shareholder value. So getting rid of it should be a massive boost.
I talked about this before. Between 2017 and 2019 Mooky upped Revenue by 285% but that increased debt by 1100%, destroyed the SP and profit margin whilst only increasing net profit by 40% when the shop was fully open...
In 2017 before Regal:
Share Price: 320
Operating Income: 166.8M
Net Income: 100.60M
Revenue: 890.70M
Total Liabilities: 628.60M
Interest Payments on Debt: 10M
Profit Margin: 11.29%
2019: After Regal
Share Price: 221
Operating Income: 682.11M
Net Income: 141.33M
Revenue: 3.43B
Total Liabilities: 7.36B
Interest Payments on Debt: 391M
Profit Margin: 4.13%
Cine increased operating income between 2017 and 2019 by 400% in buying Regal. But the debt interest payments eats it up hence Net Income only 40% up...That pesky debt payments...That needs to be reduced for this to go up. Shorts are here for a reason. If you want them to bugger off, reduce the thing that brought them here. They won't just bugger off for no reason.
Cine had trouble before covid, so to think if we just go back to pre covid levels all will be fine is wishful thinking. Hence after results shorts only increased...
I closed most of my positions in Cine before and after the earnings. I only have a £16k position left that shows a 30% loss. Now trying to get back in, my entry point this morning was too cheeky, now I'm forced to pay more.
I can't imagine this will really happen as per the poster. I'm ultra sceptic...But who knows, they say every dog gets their day, maybe this old dog will get his day too...Seems worth a shot, if nothing happens within a few days I will be back out with nothing lost leaving the small holding.
@Bc2020 - I like your positivity.
Let's see if it still is a cash cow.
I spent time looking at the finances..Yeah I know, should have done that before I sat on a loss of £25k...
But what I noted was that buying Regal in 2017 is where it went wrong in my eyes anyway. You may ask how?
Well, we all know that is where the debt came from, they went from having 628.60M in Total Liabilities in 2017 to 5.20B in 2018 and 7.36B in 2019..
So ok, more debt should mean more Revenue right...
In 2017 they had 890.70M in Revenue, then 3.09B in 2018 and 3.43B in 2019...
So ok, lots more debt but lots more Revenue...
So that should mean lots more Profits...
Ok, so lets look at Operating Income first which off course excludes debt repayments like interest payments.
In 2017 they had 125.30M in Operating Income, then 424.25M in 2018 and 627.79M in 2019.
So Operating Income is up by 400% in 2019 from 2017 with Revenue up 285%.
That's good. For that amount of Revenue increase Operating Income increased even more...
Ok, so lets look at Net Income which includes debt repayments like interest payments.
In 2017 they had 100.60M in Net Income, then 213.21M in 2018 and 141.33M in 2018...
So ok, here we are starting to have an issue...
So Net Income is only up by 40% in 2019 from 2017 yet Revenue rose by 285% and debt went up by 1100%
As stated, Net Income is this much less than Operating Income as it reflects debt repayments ie current liabilities.
So what is this debt then that reduced Net Income by that much compared to Operating Income.
Interest payments on debt went from 10M in 2017 to 391M in 2019 and 432M in 2020.
So that's the biggest reason Net Income was only 40% up in 2019 from 2017 even though revenue increased by 285%.
Obviously there are other expenses apart from just interest expenses on debt as outlined above that also went up as it is now a bigger company but it's those interest payments that makes the difference.
Profit Margin was 11.29% in 2017 and in 2019 that dropped to 4.13%
So the extra spending did not really equate to improved cashflow...
So from what I've seen, whilst the company managed to drastically increase Revenue and Operating Income after purchasing Regal in2017 Net income is severely lagging once you take debt off. So more debt with barely more profits to pay it off.
Remember the figures above is all pre covid...
Obviously covid could not be foreseen..That was certainly not something they planned for when they bought Regal .
But right now I feel perhaps they need to put Regal up for sale. That will significantly reduce their debt level and they had a far superior profit margin before Regal. That should be good news for us. And at least the business carries on.
We talked a lot about someone like Amazon or Disney perhaps buying Cine in it's entirety.. But I think we all agreed the debt is too high unless off course the SP tanks to nothing and thus that cancels out the debt
Business travel is very important to EZJ. I worked there twice over a 10 year period.
But we must remember they don't as such actually have a business class seating arragement like say on long haul flights.
It was mostly a case that they arranged flights such that there was at least one flight into say Glasgow, Paris etc early in the morning say landing around 07:00 or 08:00 for people going into work and flights late in the afternoon etc. Off course these flights cost a lot more than say if you travelled at 10:00 in the morning or 20:00 at night on a Monday. We all know that is part of how low cost airlines worked, they made lots of money on these seats and that allowed them to sell the rest for as cheap as they did and the rest of the money was ancillaries.
Off course they also had price bands as on all other airlines, I once paid over £300 for a ticket to Majorca when my mate paid less than £50 because I got the last ticket and we sat on the same plane...So that was another way and off course putting prices up around special events say the GP in Monaco etc.
Perhaps these flights will now be emptier, if so they may have to rearrange their schedule. Also they expanded like crazy pre covid, but they've had to reduce their schedule a lot already to survive. Many of those flights probably already don't exist anymore. So they are leaner.
So whilst they may lose business travel in the short to medium term at least, they will cut costs as well by not bringing back those flights. I say short to medium because people tend to go back to their old habits very quickly.
That's the key, the will not lose money flying less passengers, but flying emptier planes...
Point is they may have much reduced revenue, but they will also have much reduced costs. They need a certain amount of money per seat, back in 2007 I remeber they made just over £3 per seat profit. As always they will work on load factors as well, they just need to ensure that whatever flights they do, those planes are filled which they always did. Maybe everyone will now pay more for a seat to off set loss of business passengers, but if they have to do it, everyone else will have to. Equally remember not every route/flight had business passengers, there was not many business pax to Sharm El sheikh.
It's running emply planes that wil make them fold. People think those early morning later afternoon flights will be empty and thus they will be in big trouble, if that happened before covid they would have slashed that flight and with it the cost and deployed it elsewhere. They may have a lot less planes and flights going forward, but they know how to make money ie how to improve load factors and deploy planes to productive routes and take them out of unproductive routes.
They can get rid of planes, landing slots etc. I first worked there when the oil price hit $200 a barrel, they survived that.
@RickEngland... Today BP, Shell etc are down, the reason the FTSE100 is down...
Why? Because oil is down. Why? Because of a breakout of infections in Asia...
We can talk all day and all night about covid is in the past, about how many people have been vaccinated and how we sould move on and high vaccination rates here and the US...
In the end algo's trade on news and investors are a fickle bunch. Daily headlines of new high after new high lead to the sell off in equities in the travel/retail sector. Why do you think it stopped? Because the reverse in infections happened in the UK, that is right the same time the SP stopped declining along with the rest of the travel/retail sector otherwise it would still have been going down.
It became scary and I was wondering where will it end...Since then Cine along with the others that declined are just standing still now not really going anywhere.
The same way Boohoo's SP fell through the floor based on a single newspaper article last year etc...People argued it is nonsense, that Boohoo is so profitable and it makes no sense...But news headlines matter and news headlines changes sentiment...
If your logic is true, then Cine must still be 120, but since it is not, perhaps it is not as simple as only vaccination numbers etc. Do you even think about the efects of rising interest rates, inflation and tapering of QE? CPI figures for the US is due this week...I guess that doesn't matter for you though...Good luck.
@mountainous - If you stand back and take a look at the bigger picture, you will see Cine dropped along with the wider market.
On my screens everything else is down the same really.
In travel NEX, FGP, Stagecoach, Holidays: TUI, CCL, Airlines went down a lot, retail as well. In Automotive VW, BMW, Daimler etc also went down a lot, ok some of that is semiconductor issues but if like me you sit in front of your PC all day long and stare at all these sectors and stocks in front of you then you will know it was the rising infection rates and changing sentiment that caused all of this.
The fear that the economy won't grow as much as first predicted and potentially new lockdowns due to the surge around the world in infections.
Those days when we had a new high after a new high in infections and when europe started to report rises it all went to pot..
That is your answer, it's not Cine specific. My stagecoach shares took a massive beating and I made a big loss during the same time I made the loss on Cine. One can ask the same about Stagecoach and Nex but again they followed the wider market sentiment.
We were all wondering but in essence the answer was in front of us. We should have been out when we could see the uptick in infections and been able to predict europe would follow us. I was too slow to react, but also I got fixated on freedom day and believed that will be the catalyst and somehow fix it all...
It's at 22:00 tonight.
The Company’s earnings webcast will be accessible through the Investor Relations section of AMC’s website at https://investor.amctheatres.com/corporate-overview/. Investors and interested parties should go to the website at least 15 minutes before the call to register, and/or download and install any necessary audio software.
Date: Monday, August 9, 2021
Time: 4:00 p.m. CDT / 5:00 p.m. EDT
@bullsbears
Good point, I will also be checking AMC along with Cinemark to get an idea of how Cine's results may look.
Cinemark's quarterly release is on Friday the 6th August at 13:30(UK Time)
Strangely AMC doesn't say when their's are(They say on their website 'No upcoming events'), but from other websites I have the same date as you which is the 9th August. Can't find a time but I will assume it will also be at 13:30.
The thing that does my head in about trading is that by the time the market opens even if you were in profit the day before like what happened to me with Asos, the market can gap down and open 5% or 10% down or however much before you can do anything...
I always think it is so unfair, why can't the market open at the same price as the day before, so everyone has an equal opportunity to buy or sell after digesting the results...
So now it's a case of do we take the risk and wait for the results hoping it will jump or sell the day before fearing it might gap down on results day...
I'm down a lot, so if by any chance it jumps I'd hate to be out...But equally I will be kicking myself if it goes down as I like many of us here need a jump up not down..
Maybe Cinemark and AMC will give as an idea, although at the same time I feel AMC's SP is so corrupted that whatever it does it will mean nothing...
Thanks for that article.
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Black Widow has a new enemy: the Walt Disney Co.
Scarlett Johansson, star of the latest Marvel movie “Black Widow,” filed a lawsuit Thursday in Los Angeles Superior Court against Disney , alleging her contract was breached when the media giant released the film on its Disney+ streaming service at the same time as its theatrical debut.
Ms. Johansson said in the suit that her agreement with Disney’s Marvel Entertainment guaranteed an exclusive theatrical release, and her salary was based in large part on the box-office performance of the film.
“Disney intentionally induced Marvel’s breach of the agreement, without justification, in order to prevent Ms. Johansson from realizing the full benefit of her bargain with Marvel,” the suit said.
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I know we have discussed the need for windows to maximize profitability etc. But film stars don't just care about money, they also care about status, money raked in at the box office with their name connected to it. Surely that is what gives them status in the movie industry and can propel them and make them famous and in turn cause them to demand huge salaries...
So one can see why Scarlett Johansson is not happy, I doubt this is just about her salary, if another movie after her's get released with a window and rakes in more at the box office and gets the headlines for being at the top of the box office just for her to see her movie is top of the most pirated and downloaded list all these actors might refuse to sign contracts without windows.
But also, why would star directors and studios spent all that money on movies to see Cinemas disappear and see their movies downloaded for free and appear on the top of the wrong lists...That thought surely is enough to demand theatrical windows.
What will make a movie desirable and for you to want to pay for it and watch it with your family on Disney+ in front of the tv will be if it was a huge hit at the box office.
I just don't see how Cinemas will be in decline from now on and disappear into the future. If you didn't have piracy then yes, and for all the talk that we all have huge TV's at home now...
Well we can all order take aways, not to mention the countless companies now delivering healthy food boxes so you can cook yourself and yet restaurants are still packed, we can all do grocery shopping online, yet supermarkets are still packed whenever you go. We can all buy fancy coffee making machines and make it at home for much cheaper, yet coffee shops are still raking it in and jumping up everywhere. We can all drink in front of the telly but pubs are still always packed...
Going to the Cinema is a night/day out. It's always situated between many other amenities.