Member Info for Dofe

Here is a clue:
The Dow is the USA market and the ftse is the UK market.
The Dow is only the bellwether from which other major markets around take their cues.
They only take their cues from it.
They only take their cues from it.
Write out 100 times.

ECB are already into negative rates.
UK have little wriggle room left.
The next step can only be more QE or more stimuli in budget.
Remember, it is a short term problem that is affecting markets, and is completely different to previous crashes. As long as the credit cycle is not severely damaged, which no-one is suggesting, then it is just a matter of time in order to play itself out.

....but Asian markets not impressed, so things will roller-coaster.
Coronavirus firmly back on the agenda and markets now looking at recession.

Trump is now considering some form of assistance in order to help the oil companies who are heavily indebted and affected by the Putin manouevre.
Market will like it

Currently suspended- upper limit reached

Politics and oil will drive the world markets now. One beneficiary will be the Chinese who can use it against the US in their trade ‘negotiations’.
Communism vs Capitalism never dies.
Coronavirus concerns though may drive European markets more, so BT will just float around on a rising/ falling tide of both good and bad news.

I hate to say it but the writing was on the wall for the whole of the telecoms sector years ago, and the retreat of the various companies from pursuing their global ambitions has been clear for all to see. The complexities of expanding the businesses globally; regulation; capex; competition etc has caused the market to look at the revenue streams of the likes like Amazon Prime, Netflix etc. and re-evaluate the whole industry.
Even BT saw this, which is why they started to adopt their own model re: TV
However, the market also recognises that the backbone infrastructure is what joins the dots together in order to enable everyone else to take advantage of the changing market. It earns revenue and the market likes revenue.
So is BT a dead duck?
Of course not. It just sits, unhappily, in a sector of the market that no-one currently wants.

Forget the US markets now. Watch for reactions and verbals from ECB and BOE.

See the amended LULD rules.
Markets open 1:30 today- changes to daylight saving time.

The problem is: everyone takes their cues from everyone’s else I.e the ftse knows the Dow close from the previous evening; it’s ripple effect overnight on the Asian markets; it spends the first half of the morning trying to digest the information and translate it into meaningful data whilst keeping an eye on the Dow futures etc etc, and so the cycle continues.
Markets do what they do best at times like this: react, over-react, panic, calm down, react etc which gives them the breathing space to either mitigate potential losses or re-position themselves for the future. Remember, a lot of their prior hedged bets will either be in winning or losing positions, so the bets on the market have already been made. The Dow is set up so as not to allow flash crashes again and will stop trading if necessary.

The ball is back in Trump’s Court.
Everyone is scurrying around trying to un-leverage their leveraged bets.
Coronavirus has taken a back seat for now, but the oil price fall is gamesmanship/brinkmanship at the moment and will unwind as long as Russia get what they consider a level playing field back again.

The ball is back in Trump’s Court.
Everyone is scurrying around trying to un-leverage their leveraged bets.
Coronavirus has taken a back seat for now, but the oil price fall is gamesmanship/brinkmanship at the moment and will unwind as long as Russia get what they consider a level playing field back again.

Putin must be laughing his head off.
Trump placed sanctions on Rosneft and this is Putin’s response.
If you have an oil market mired in junk rated debt and a world health crisis affecting economies, what better time to flex your muscles.

A few weeks ago Trump placed sanctions on Rosneft believing Russia is helping Maduro- Rosneft is run by a friend of Putin.
Putin falls out with its ally the Saudis and walks out of OPEC.
US oil industry mired in debt mainly rated junk.
Putin wants to hit US shale industry.
World economy already affected by Coronavirus.
What better time to flex your muscles. Putin must be laughing his head off.

The problem at the moment is that it has as much to do with politics as it has Coronavirus. In the US there is a concern that a Democrat could be levered into the White House. The market lifted the other day more as a sense of relief on the fact that If it has to be a Democrat then Biden is a least worse choice. I.e more moderate.
There is also the fact that the USA is the principal world currency reserve. China wants to take that crown. Powerful forces are at play and although the effect of coronavirus is a concern , it could lead to a lot of companies being forced to review their reliance on China.
Does that answer your question? No, of course not. But in reality people don’t want to be out of the market they just want things to carry on as before. And remember, QE and low interest rates have already distorted the market. The price you are putting on a company now, or the cost of a loan, isn’t really the same as 10 years ago when you factor all of that in.
Just watch America and China. Europe has its own set of problems and just sits in the middle of the two.
Que sera sera

Where is the money going? Into the bond market. People are betting on more fiscal stimulus from central banks., and they will probably get it.

That saying is as true now as it ever was. The ftse will take its cues from the USA. BT will move accordingly.

lol
For all your boasting about your decades of trading knowledge you have been caught out by an elementary mistake which even a junior would understand.
You now have the floor to yourself
Explain why you think a rise in US interest rates don’t affect the earnings of the likes of Microsoft etc.
Over to you. I’m all ears to receive the benefit of decades of market experience.

Mr Rooster,
The markets now are tracking the infection. Until they see a change the markets will be all over the place while they try to get a handle on its spread.

Instead of tracking the market try tracking the rate of new infections In order to determine when they peak.
That may give you an idea of how the market will react before it does.